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Session Proposal: Integrating physical, statistical and AI-enhanced methods in seismic hazard -Towards real-time forecasting of natural and induced earthquakes (AGU25)

S013
Integrating physical, statistical and AI-enhanced methods in seismic hazard -Towards real-time forecasting of natural and induced earthquakes

Session ID#: 247994

Session Description:
Statistical seismology has taken impressive advances during the last few decades thanks to the incorporation of empirical observations within modelling of seismicity and the empowerment of new techniques and mathematical tools. However, our understanding of earthquake physics is still poor and our ability to forecast major events is limited. This session is devoted to discussing original methods and integrated techniques combining mathematical, physical and AI-based approaches for enhancing earthquake forecasts and catalogue simulations. Research works about the following topics are welcome:1) Modeling of large earthquakes as extreme events. 2) Stochastic earthquake simulations. 3) Stochastic and physics-based methods for forecasting induced and volcano seismicity. 4) Application of physics-informed neural networks to earthquake forecasting. 5) Statistical and physics-informed time-dependent earthquake forecasting. 6) Early-warning and short-term earthquake forecasts based on statistical, physics-informed and AI-enhanced modeling. 7) Modeling long-term recurrence of large earthquakes. 8) Earthquake hazard communication and results in regional seismic hazard.
Co-Sponsor(s):
  • NG - Nonlinear Geophysics
  • NH - Natural Hazards
  • T - Tectonophysics
  • V - Volcanology, Geochemistry and Petrology
Index Terms:

3245 Probabilistic forecasting [MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS]
4313 Extreme events [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4316 Physical modeling [NATURAL HAZARDS]
7223 Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction [SEISMOLOGY]
Primary Convener:  Davide Zaccagnino, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy; Institute of Risk Analysis, Prediction and Management (Risks-X), Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech), Shenzhen, China
Conveners:  Ilaria Spassiani, INGV National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Rome, Italy, Robert Shcherbakov, University of Western Ontario, Department of Earth Sciences, London, ON, Canada and Jiancang Zhuang, Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan
Student/Early Career Convener:  Giuseppe Petrillo, Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan
 
Forecasting Aftershock Ground-Motion Hazards based on Short-term Earthquake Occurrence Probability Information after a Large Earthquake (1846108)
Hisahiko Kubo and Katsuhiko Shiomi, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, Tsukuba, Japan
 
Seismic Hazard Assessment And Earthquake Forecasting In Northern Pakistan, NW Himalayas Using Machine Learning (1857325)
Muteeb Mohsin Sahi, Perveiz Khalid, Abid Ali and Irfan Ehsan, University of the Punjab, Institute of Geology, Lahore, Pakistan
 
A Case Study of Area-Based Earthquake Ground Motion Hazards in the San Francisco Bay Area (1865100)
Sarah E Minson1, Stephen Wu2, Siu-Kui Au3, Elizabeth S Cochran4, Keisuke Yano2, Grace Alexandra Parker5, Annemarie Baltay1, Kevin Milner6, Morgan Page4 and Chris Henze7, (1)U.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Science Center, Moffett Field, United States, (2)ISM Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan, (3)Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore, (4)U.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Science Center, Pasadena, United States, (5)University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United States, (6)USGS Geologic Hazards Science Center, Golden, United States, (7)NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, United States
 
Reconstruction of Seismic Wavefields by Combining Physically-Based and Data-Driven Regression of Time-Frequency Characteristics (1867141)
Takashi Miyamoto, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan and Hisahiko Kubo, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Uji, Japan
 
The 2025 Santorini Earthquake Sequence Unveils the Tail of the Magnitude-Frequency Distribution (1867539)
Gert Zoeller, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany and Sebastian Hainzl, GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
 
Comparison of b-value estimation methods for real-time aftershock forecasting in Japan (1871861)
Taku Ueda, Hisahiko Kubo and Katsuhiko Shiomi, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, Tsukuba, Japan
 
CRUSTAL DYNAMICS AND SEISMIC HAZARD STUDIES IN WEST AFRICA (1873779)
Umar Afegbua Kadiri, Centre for Geodesy and Geodynamics Toro, Seismology, Toro, Nigeria and Andrzej Kijko, Univesity of Pretoria, Natural Hazard Centre, Pretoria, South Africa
 
Spatio-Temporal Localization of Rock Damage and Seismicity Before Large Earthquakes (Invited) (1877560)
Yehuda Ben-Zion, University of Southern California, Department of Earth Sciences and Statewide California Earthquake Center, Los Angeles, United States
 
Real-Time Detection of Volcanic Seismic Precursors at Campi Flegrei using the PreD-Net Deep Learning Model (1877900)
Vincenzo Convertito1, Fabio Giampaolo2, Stefano Izzo2 and Francesco Piccialli Prof2, (1)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Napoli, Italy, (2)The University of Naples Federico II, Department of Mathematics and Applications "Renato Caccioppoli", Naples, Italy
 
Rethinking Maximum Magnitudes: the Physics of Supercritical Ruptures in Fault Systems (1878082)
Davide Zaccagnino, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy; Institute of Risk Analysis, Prediction and Management (Risks-X), Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech), Shenzhen, China
 
Unobserved Microseismicity May Sustain Earthquake Cascades below Detection Thresholds (1878140)
Davide Zaccagnino, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy; Institute of Risk Analysis, Prediction and Management (Risks-X), Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech), Shenzhen, China, Jiawei Li, Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech), Institute of Risk Analysis, Prediction and Management (Risks-X), Shenzhen, China and Didier Sornette, ETH Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
 
Toward Ground Motion Forecasting (1882449)
Tim Clements1, Elizabeth S Cochran2, Sarah E Minson1, Nicholas van der Elst2, Clara E Yoon2, Annemarie Baltay1, Morgan Page2, Max Schneider1, Thaddeus Norman3, Adam Sabry3, Shubha Ranjan3 and Jonathan Gee3, (1)U.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Science Center, Moffett Field, United States, (2)U.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Science Center, Pasadena, United States, (3)NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, United States
 
3D Physics-Based Ground Motion Simulation and Near-Surface Structure Effects of the 2024 Feidong M4.7 Earthquake (1883870)
Guili Zhou and Huajian Yao, University of Science and Technology of China, School of Earth and Space Sciences, Hefei, China
 
ALL MODELS ARE WRONG, BUT SOME MODELS SEEM IMPLAUSIBLE (Invited) (1884744)
Seth Stein, Northwestern University, Earth & Planetary Sciences and Institute for Policy Research, Evanston, United States, James Scott Neely, Cotality, Irvine, United States, Bruce D. Spencer, Northwestern University, Department of Statistics & Data Science and Institute for Policy Research, Evanston, United States and Leah Salditch, Guy Carpenter & Company, Chicago, United States
 
Generation of Synthetic Seismograms for Crustal Earthquakes Across Japan Using Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks and Generalized Inversion Technique (1887886)
Junki Yamaguchi, Yusuke Tomozawa, Yangyang Li and Toshihide Saka, Kajima Technical Research Institute, Tokyo, Japan
 
Spatiotemporal analysis of seismicity affected by the Japanese major earthquakes using the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence Model (1889134)
Harumi Uchida1, Tomomi Okada1, Ryotaro Fujimura1 and Ayaka Tagami1,2, (1)Tohoku University, Graduate School of Science, Sendai, Japan, (2)AIST - National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, Tsukuba, Japan
 
Site-Proxy Ground-Motion Waveform Generation Model Based on Similarity Evaluation of Temporal Characteristics in Waveforms Generated from a Conditional Generative Adversarial Network (1890048)
Yangyang Li, Junki Yamaguchi, Yusuke Tomozawa and Toshihide Saka, Kajima Technical Research Institute, Tokyo, Japan
 
Evaluating Frequency Contributions to Pseudo-Spectral Response Spectra Using Physics-Based Earthquake Simulations Across Geological Settings (1890370)
Sajan K C, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States and Chukwuebuka Chukwuemeka Nweke, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, United States
 
Surface Wave Amplification in the Bengal Basin: Theoretical and Numerical Insights into Basin-Induced Seismic Hazard (1894284)
Baibhab Karmakar1, Arjun Datta2, Supriyo Mitra3 and Visrutha Chalakkatta2, (1)Indian Institiute of Science Education and Research Kolkata, Department of Earth Sciences, Kolkata, India, (2)Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Pune, Department of Earth and Climate Science, Pune, India, (3)Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Kolkata, Department of Earth Sciences, Kolkata, India
 
What Makes a Good Aftershock Forecast? Tracking the Performance of the Components of the USGS Forecasting System (1899202)
Max Schneider1, Michael Barall2, Jeanne Hardebeck1, Andrew Jay Michael1, Morgan Page3 and Nicholas van der Elst3, (1)U.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Science Center, Moffett Field, United States, (2)US Geological Survey, Earthquake Science Center, Moffett Field, United States, (3)U.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Science Center, Pasadena, United States
 
Estimation of Crustal Heterogeneous Attenuation Structure in Japan Based on Generalized Inversion Technique (1905732)
Yusuke Tomozawa and Tomoki Hikita, Kajima Technical Research Institute, Tokyo, Japan
 
Physics-based Ground Motion Simulation of the 2016 Gyeongju Earthquake Sequence in South Korea Using the Spectral Element Method (1907201)
Mrinal Kanti Layek, Changwon National University, Industrial Technology Research Institute, Changwon-Si, South Korea and Seokho Jeong, Changwon National University, Department of Civil Engineering, Changwon-Si, South Korea
 
Challenging our degree of belief in paleoseismic magnitudes (1907587)
Michele M C Carafa1, Deborah Di Naccio Dr.1 and Davide Zaccagnino2, (1)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, L'Aquila, Italy, (2)Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
 
PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS OF NORTHEAST INDIA USING CLUSTERED SEISMICITY AND FAULT-BASED SOURCE MODELS (1910001)
Tapan Jyoti Sharma1, Archana M Nair1 and Bijay kumar Nayak2, (1)Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati, Earth System Science and Engineering Division, Department of Civil Engineering, Guwahati, India, (2)IIT Guwahati, Earth system science and engineering division, Department of Civil Engineering, Guwahati, India
 
Temporal Evolution of the b-value Prior to Recent Major Earthquakes in China (1911996)
Martina Orlando1,2 and Mariagrazia De Caro1, (1)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy, (2)Università Roma TRE, Dipartimento di Scienze, Rome, Italy
 
Characteristics of the Ms7.6 Earthquake Sequence and Post-earthquake Trend Assessment in Noto Region, Ishikawa Prefecture, Japan on January 1, 2024 (1917498)
Bateer Wu, Institute of Disaster Prevention, China, Beijing, China
 
Modeling Multicycle Fault Slip and Instabilities Using Fourier Feature-Enhanced Physics-Informed Neural Networks (1920515)
Shubhneet Sapnawat, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Earthquake Engineering, Roorkee, India and Sohom Ray, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Earthquake Engineering, Mehta Family School of DS & AI, IIT Roorkee, Roorkee, India
 
Earthquake Forecasting Using Single-Station Waveform Detection (1937555)
Emily E Brodsky, University of California Santa Cruz, Earth and Planetary Sciences, Santa Cruz, United States, Yuriko Iwasaki, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, United States and Kelian Dascher-Cousineau, Utah State University, Logan, UT, United States
 
Is the Bay of Bengal becoming a potential source zone for future moderate-to-strong intraplate earthquakes? (1940515)
Mohd Shahabuddin1, Priyank Pathak2 and William Kumar Mohanty1, (1)Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Geology and Geophysics, Kharagpur, India, (2)Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Department of Geology and Geophysics, Kharagpur, India
 
Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics of Water Injection-Induced Earthquakes in the Southern Sichuan Region and Their Implications for Risk Assessment Research (1948396)
Dewei Li1, Hongyu Yu1, Shiwen Zhou2, Renqi Lu3 and Yicun Guo4, (1)Zhejiang University, School of Earth Sciences, Hangzhou, China, (2)The 6th Geological Brigade Of Sichuan, Luzhou, China, (3)State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics, Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China, (4)University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
 
Physics-Based Seismic Hazard Assessment Using RSQSim and Monte Carlo Simulation: Validation Against USGS NSHM for Los Angeles (1957959)
Victor Olawoyin and John Ebel, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, United States
 
Spatiotemporal Variability in b-values across Japan foreshock and aftershock sequences (2004–2020) with implications for seismic hazard (1957969)
Francesca Burkett, University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, MI, United States and Yihe Huang, Earth and Environmental Sciences Department, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, United States
 
Vertical continuation of seismic waveforms through the shallow structure with neural operators (1978952)
Shuye Huang, University of Southern California, Department of Earth Sciences, Los Angeles, CA, United States and Yehuda Ben-Zion, University of Southern California, Department of Earth Sciences and Statewide California Earthquake Center, Los Angeles, United States
 
bEST – universal estimation of the Gutenberg-Richter b-value, with a MATLAB/Python toolbox (1985878)
Giuseppe Falcone1, Matteo Taroni1, Davide Zaccagnino1,2, Ilaria Spassiani1, Giuseppe Petrillo3, Giovanni Vitale1 and Anna Figlioli4, (1)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy, (2)Institute of Risk Analysis, Prediction and Management (Risks-X), Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech), Shenzhen, China, (3)Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore, (4)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Milan, Italy
 
A Restricted Maximum Likelihood Approach for Regional Earthquake Magnitude Conversion Along the East African Rift (1993895)
Mohammed Al-Ajamee, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Department of Earthquake Engineering, Roorkee, India
 
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Rao Saifullah, Organization Not Listed, Washington, DC, United States
 
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Yuanyuan Niu, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo-to, Japan and Jiancang Zhuang, Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan
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