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Session Proposal: Kinematic, Dynamic, and Analytical Earthquake Source Modeling (AGU25)

S014
Kinematic, Dynamic, and Analytical Earthquake Source Modeling

Session ID#: 250449

Session Description:
Recent advances in earthquake rupture modeling and dense observational data have deepened our understanding of earthquake source physics and seismic wave propagation. Yet, bridging models with real-world data from natural and induced events remains challenging due to fault complexity and observational limitations. This session invites contributions addressing: How do natural fault complexities influence kinematic and dynamic rupture behavior and resulting ground motions? What can seismic, geodetic, geological, and laboratory data reveal about earthquake physics? How can we constrain earthquake nucleation and arrest across different scales? How can analytical models bridge the gap between empirical observations and numerical simulations to advance theoretical insight into rupture processes? We welcome studies that integrate novel modeling approaches with observational or experimental constraints, particularly those focused on recent large earthquakes. Submissions addressing kinematic or dynamic source models, and studies to reconcile observations across scales, from laboratory to field, are especially encouraged.
Co-Sponsor(s):
  • T - Tectonophysics
Index Terms:

7209 Earthquake dynamics [SEISMOLOGY]
7215 Earthquake source observations [SEISMOLOGY]
7290 Computational seismology [SEISMOLOGY]
8118 Dynamics and mechanics of faulting [TECTONOPHYSICS]
Primary Convener:  Elisa Tinti, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
Conveners:  Dmitry Garagash, Dalhousie University, Department of Civil and Resource Engineering, Halifax, NS, Canada, Dara E Goldberg, USGS Geologic Hazards Science Center, Golden, United States and Alice-Agnes Gabriel, University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, United States
 
Multiple nucleation processes reveal alternating crack-like slow and rapid ruptures in lab-earthquakes (1846129)
Jay Fineberg, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Racah Institute of Physics, Jerusalem, Israel and Songlin Shi, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, The Racah Institute of Physics, Jerusalem, Israel
 
Near-Fault Ground Motion Generated by a Kinematically Constrained Dynamic Rupture Model for an Extreme Shallow Earthquake in Southeastern France (1852024)
Hongyi Su, Autorité de Sûreté Nucléaire et de Radioprotection, ISTerre, Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France, Sébastien Hok, Autorité de Sûreté Nucléaire et de Radioprotection, Fontenay-aus-Roses, France, Mathieu Causse, ISTerre, Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, IRD, Univ. Gustave Eiffel, Saint-Martin-d'Hères, France, Céline Gélis, Autorité de Sûreté Nucléaire et de Radioprotection, Fontenay-aux-Roses, France and Cécile Cornou, Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, IRD, IFSTTAR, ISTerre, Grenoble, France
 
Rupture sensitivity to dynamic source parameters revealed by variational fracture mechanics and adjoint rupture dynamics with slip-weakening friction (1855355)
Rikuto Fukushima1 and Eric M Dunham1,2, (1)Stanford University, Department of Geophysics, Stanford, United States, (2)Stanford University, Institute for Computational and Mathematical Engineering, Stanford, United States
 
Broadband Dynamic Rupture Inversion of Apparent Source Spectra for Two Mw~4 Earthquakes (1860844)
Frantisek Gallovic1, Ľubica Valentová Krišková1 and Sara Sgobba2, (1)Charles University, MFF, Department of Geophysics, Prague, Czech Republic, (2)INGV National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Milan, Italy
 
Sediments-modulated Supershear Rupture of the 2025 Mw 7.7 Myanmar Earthquake (1871606)
Duyuan Xu1, Heng Luo2, Houyun Yu3, Zhigang Peng4, Hejun Zhu3 and Xiaofei Chen3, (1)Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics and Forecasting, Beijing, China, (2)Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Deep Earth and Mineral Exploration, Beijing, China, (3)Southern University of Science and Technology, Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Shenzhen, China, (4)Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, United States
 
Various rupture mode preferences during fault rupture growth among various scales (1871641)
Ritsuya Shibata, Hisahiko Kubo and Wataru Suzuki, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, Tsukuba, Japan
 
Solving the Near-Fault Data Scarcity Problem for Normal-Faulting Earthquakes Using Dynamic Rupture Simulations (1875689)
Yair Franco and Daniel T Trugman, University of Nevada Reno, Nevada Seismological Laboratory, Reno, United States
 
Interaction of Nearby Repeating Earthquake Sequences and Implications for Earthquake Source Physics (1876378)
Linxuan Li, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States, Nadia Lapusta, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States and Kavya Sudhir, California Institute of Technology, Department of Mechanical and Civil Engineering, Pasadena, United States
 
Rupture propagation and arrest in global large continental earthquakes constrained by direct on-fault, and near-fault seismic observations (Invited) (1884998)
Yoshihiro Kaneko and Jesse Kearse, Kyoto University, Department of Geophysics, Kyoto, Japan
 
Near-fault velocity waveforms and displacement particle motions reveal detailed rupture propagation in the 2023 Mw 7.8 Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye earthquake (1885074)
Di Deng, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Suli Yao, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Earth System Science Programme, Hong Kong, Hong Kong and Hongfeng Yang, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Earth and Environmental Sciences Programme, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
 
Interplate and Intraplate Fault Ruptures During the 2025 MW 7.4 Earthquake in the Drake Passage (1887518)
Ryo Yamaguchi1, Yuji Yagi2, Ryo Okuwaki2 and Naohiro Inoue1, (1)University of Tsukuba, Graduate School of Science and Technology, Tsukuba, Japan, (2)University of Tsukuba, Institute of Life and Environmental Sciences, Tsukuba, Japan
 
Rich Rupture Dynamics of the 2025 Mw 7.7 Mandalay, Myanmar Earthquake Revealed by Unprecedented On-Fault Video and Additional Multimodal Observations (1890838)
Fuhua Zheng1, Jianhao Gao2, Zaiwang Liu1, Haoran Meng1,3, Yu Hou1, Longtan Wang1, Shiqing Xu1, Zhigang Peng4, Chaofeng Wang2,5, Min Zhou1, Han Yue6, Jianbao Sun7, Zexin Wang6 and Yehuda Ben-Zion8, (1)Southern University of Science and Technology, Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Shenzhen, China, (2)University of Florida, M. E. Rinker, Sr. School of Construction Management, Gainesville, United States, (3)Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Deep Offshore Oil and Gas Exploration Technology, Shenzhen, China, (4)Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, United States, (5)University of Florida, Department of Civil & Coastal Engineering, Herbert Wertheim College of Engineering, Gainesville, United States, (6)Peking University, ITAG Institute of Theoretical and Applied Geophysics, Beijing, China, (7)China Earthquake Administration, Institute of Geology, State Key Lab. of Earthquake Dynamics, Beijing, China, (8)University of Southern California, Department of Earth Sciences and Statewide California Earthquake Center, Los Angeles, United States
 
Kinematic source characterization of micro-earthquakes induced in BedrettoLab fault activation experiments (1892518)
Mariano Supino1, Massimo Cocco2, Men-Andrin Meier3, Elisa Tinti4, Francesco Mosconi4, Giulio Poggiali4, Valentin Gischig5, Antonio Pio Rinaldi5, Frédérick Massin5, John F. Clinton5, Paul Selvadurai5, Luca Scarabello5, Luca Dal Zilio6, Florian Amann7, Stefan Wiemer5 and Domenico Giardini3, (1)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy, (2)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma, Italy, (3)ETH Zurich, Institute of Geophysics, Zurich, Switzerland, (4)Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy, (5)ETH Zurich, Swiss Seismological Service, Zurich, Switzerland, (6)Earth Observatory of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore, (7)RWTH Aachen University, Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology, Aachen, Germany
 
Earthquake Shaking Scales with Rupture Complexity (1901763)
Prof. John Emilio Vidale, University of Southern California, Department of Earth Sciences, Los Angeles, CA, United States and Hao Zhang, University of Southern California, Department of Earth Sciences, Los Angeles, United States
 
Kinematic Rupture Process of the 2024 Mw 7.1 and the 2025 Mw 6.8 Hyuga-nada Earthquakes Inferred from Seismic and Geodetic Observations (1905082)
Canyang Ding1, Shida Liu2, Chengli LIU1 and Xiong Xiong3, (1)China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, Wuhan, China, (2)China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, Wuhan, Hubei, China, (3)China University of Geosciences Wuhan, Wuhan, China
 
Unraveling the Complex Rupture Processes of the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake through 3D Wavefield Simulations and MCMC Inversion (1906818)
Rintaro Enomoto1, Yoshihiro Kaneko1, Chi-Hsien Tang2, Yo Fukushima2, Hiroyuki Goto3 and Shin'ichi Miyazaki1, (1)Kyoto University, Department of Geophysics, Kyoto, Japan, (2)Tohoku University, International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Sendai, Japan, (3)Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
 
Crack Front Waves under Mixed Mode II and III Rupture Dynamics (1910564)
Sharath Chandra Mouli Yenike, Mahindra University, Ecole Centrale School of Engineering, Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineeirng, Hyderabad, India and Ranjith Kunnath, Mahindra University, Ecole Centrale School of Engineering, Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Hyderabad, India
 
Large earthquake complexity along the Mexico Subduction Zone: Repeating and variable rupture patterns (1913777)
Chengli LIU, China University of Geosciences Wuhan, Wuhan, China, Thorne Lay, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, United States and Xiong Xiong, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China
 
10Hz GROUND MOTION SIMULATION OF THE M~7.0 1886 CHARLESTON, SOUTH CAROLINA EARTHQUAKE (1915627)
Arben Pitarka, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, United States, Vladimir Graizer, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Rockville, MD, United States, Martin C Chapman, Virginia Polytech Inst & St Un, Blacksburg, United States and Thomas L Pratt, U.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Reston, United States
 
Physics-Based 3D Ground Motion Simulations of the 1915 Fucino Earthquake, Italy: Investigating Source and Site Effects for an Historical Seismic Event (1934552)
Pietro Artale Harris1, Aybige Akinci2, Arben Pitarka3, Pasquale De Gori1, Arianna Cuius1 and Rossella Fonzetti1, (1)National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Rome, Italy, (2)INGV, Rome, Italy, (3)Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, United States
 
Stress Heterogeneity and Complex Dynamics of Lab-Earthquake Propagation (Invited) (1941903)
Federica Paglialunga1, Jean-Paul Ampuero2 and Francois Passelegue1, (1)Université Côte d’Azur, CNRS, Observatoire de la Côte d’Azur, Valbonne, France, (2)Université Côte d’Azur, IRD, CNRS, Observatoire de la Côte d’Azur, Géoazur, Valbonne, France
 
Reconciling Variability in Finite-Fault Models through Ensemble Dynamic Rupture Simulations: the Role of Stress Heterogeneity in the Tohoku-Oki Earthquake (1942108)
Jeremy Wing Ching Wong, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, United States, Alice-Agnes Gabriel, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Munich, Germany; University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, United States and Wenyuan Fan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, United States
 
Dynamic Rupture Modeling of Induced Earthquakes in Groningen: Linking Fault Roughness and Stress Heterogeneity to Mmax (1942291)
Vincent van der Heiden1, Loes Buijze2, Thomas Ulrich3, Alice-Agnes Gabriel3, Jesper Spetzler4, Liviu Matenco1, Jan-Diederik van Wees1 and Ylona van Dinther1, (1)Utrecht University, Department of Earth Sciences, Utrecht, Netherlands, (2)TNO, Applied Geosciences, Utrecht, Netherlands, (3)Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Munich, Germany, (4)Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands
 
Physics-Based Broadband Ground Motion Simulations of the April 2025 Istanbul,Turkiye earthquake, by using a 1D Frequency-Wavenumber Approach (1944075)
Arianna Cuius1, Aybige Akinci2, Pietro Artale Harris1, Arben Pitarka3, Aysegul Askan4, Shaghayegh Karimzadeh5 and Gamze Muratoglu4, (1)National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Rome, Italy, (2)INGV, Rome, Italy, (3)Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, United States, (4)Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey, (5)University of Minho, Braga, Portugal
 
Kinematic Source Modeling and Ground Motion Characterization of the December 2024 M7.0 Cape Mendocino, California, Earthquake With GNSS Velocities (1949793)
Brendan Crowell, Ohio State University Main Campus, Columbus, OH, United States and Jensen DeGrande, University of Washington, Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Seattle, United States
 
Exploring the Sensitivity of Earthquake Dynamic Rupture to Fault Geometry Using Mesh Morphing and Reduced-Order Models (1964684)
Gabrielle Hobson1, Dave May1 and Alice-Agnes Gabriel2,3, (1)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, United States, (2)University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, United States, (3)Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Munich, Germany
 
Bimaterial Effect and Favorable Energy Ratio Enable Supershear Rupture in the 2025 Myanmar Earthquake (1968578)
Lingsen Meng, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States, Liuwei Xu, University of California Los Angeles, Earth, Planetary and Space Sciences, Los Angeles, United States, Zhang Yunjun, California Institute of Technology, Seismological Laboratory, Pasadena, United States, Huihui Weng, Université Côte d’Azur, IRD, CNRS, Observatoire de la Côte d’Azur, Géoazur, Valbonne, France, Wenbin Xu, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Earth Science and Engineering, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia and Chen Ji, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States
 
Coseismic Sackungen Activation in the New Madrid Seismic Zone: Insights from Dynamic Rupture Modeling and Newmark Analysis (1974704)
Ayomiposi Falade, University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, United States and Christodoulos Kyriakopoulos, University of Memphis, Memphis, United States
 
Quasi-periodic Repeating Earthquakes May Follow Normal Cubic Scaling Law as Regular Earthquakes (1986049)
Binhao Wang, University of Southern California, Department of Earth Sciences, Los Angeles, CA, United States, Baoning Wu, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, La Jolla, United States and Dr. Yijian Zhou, Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States
 
Generality of Solution Scaling in Linear Elastic Dynamic Rupture Models (1989516)
Baoning Wu1, David Douglas Oglesby2, Christodoulos Kyriakopoulos3, Jennifer M Tarnowski2,4 and Alice-Agnes Gabriel5,6, (1)University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States, (2)University of California Riverside, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Riverside, United States, (3)University of Memphis, Center for Earthquake Research and Information, Memphis, United States, (4)In Human Resources LLC, Menifee, United States, (5)University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, United States, (6)Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Munich, Germany
 
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Alexis Sáez, California Institute of Technology, Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, Pasadena, CA, United States and Jean-Philippe Avouac, California Institute of Technology, Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, Pasadena, United States
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