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Session Proposal: Atmospheric Rivers: Processes, Impacts, Observations, and Uncertainties (AGU25)

A032
Atmospheric Rivers: Processes, Impacts, Observations, and Uncertainties

Session ID#: 248210

Session Description:
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) comprise filaments of intense water vapor transport in the lower troposphere that are essential to the global hydrological cycle. ARs operate within a broader dynamical environment; their linkages to weather and climate extremes, and their variations in a changing climate, motivate and inform the need for improvements in AR forecasting and observations to expand understanding as well as facilitate emergency response and mitigate socio-economic impacts. Quantifying uncertainty in AR measures—originating from detection methodology, data products, and model biases—is crucial for assessing confidence in process-level and impact-orientated AR analyses and predictions.This session focuses on ARs, including their observation, development, driving mechanisms, prediction and predictability, dynamical and thermodynamic responses to climate change past and future, linkage with multi-scale climate variability, hydrological impacts, and uncertainty quantification. Abstracts that make use of data from the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project, or from AR Reconnaissance projects, are particularly encouraged.
Index Terms:

1817 Extreme events [HYDROLOGY]
3364 Synoptic-scale meteorology [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4301 Atmospheric [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4303 Hydrological [NATURAL HAZARDS]
Primary Convener:  Yang Zhou, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States
Conveners:  Christine A Shields, NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States, Juan Manuel Lora, Yale University, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, New Haven, CT, United States and Anna Wilson, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, La Jolla, United States
Student/Early Career Convener:  Allison Collow, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, United States
 
Characterization of Atmospheric Rivers and Their Impacts on Precipitation Patterns in West Africa (1844935)
Dr. Rufus Temidayo Akinnubi, PhD, Adeyemi Federal University of Education, Ondo, Physics, Ondo, Nigeria
 
Atmospheric Rivers in North Pacific: Observation Impact from Drifting Buoys (1850756)
Carolyn A. Reynolds, Naval Research Lab Monterey, Marine Meteorology, Monterey, CA, United States, James D Doyle, U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, United States, Rebecca Stone, Science Applications International Corp., Monterey, CA, United States, Matthew Fearon, Science Applications International Corporation Washington DC, Washington, United States and Kevin Biernat, Naval Research Lab Monterey, Marine Meteorology, Monterey, United States
 
Atmospheric River Chain Reaction: Linking Asian and North American Extreme Weather (1850787)
James D Doyle, Naval Research Lab Monterey, Marine Meteorology, Monterey, CA, United States, Carolyn A. Reynolds, U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, United States, Kevin Biernat, Naval Research Lab Monterey, Marine Meteorology, Monterey, United States and Matthew Fearon, Science Applications International Corporation Washington DC, Washington, United States
 
Assessment of Atmospheric Rivers and Their Societal Impacts in New Zealand: A Study of Non-Stationarity and Traffic Disruptions (1851521)
Ryan Holgerson, Virginia Tech, Portland, CT, UNITED STATES and Craig Ramseyer, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, United States
 
Scaling and Regional Variability of Future Atmospheric Rivers by Wind–Moisture Characteristics (1857668)
Yang Zhou1, Michael F Wehner2, Alan Rhoades1 and Andrew D Jones3, (1)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States, (2)Applied Mathematics and Computational Research Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, United States, (3)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Berkeley, CA, United States
 
Hysteretic Atmospheric River Response to Carbon Dioxide Removal (1858100)
Seohyun Chung1, Dr. Chanil Park2, Yeeun Kwon3 and Seok-Woo Son3, (1)Seoul National University, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South), (2)Boston College, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Chestnut Hill, United States, (3)Seoul National University, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul, South Korea
 
Harnessing improved atmospheric river forecasts for multi-objective water management of the Willamette River Basin (Invited) (1859727)
Elissa Yeates, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, Hydrologic Systems Branch, Vicksburg, United States; University of Georgia, Athens, GA, United States, Andrew Martin, Portland District US Army Corps of Engineers, Portland, United States, Jason Cordeira, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, San Diego, United States and Norman Buccola, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Portland, United States
 
A Multiscale Study of Atmospheric River Formation and Moisture Origins (1866456)
Sierra Whiteman, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, United States, Steven D Miller, Colorado State Univ-CIRA, Fort Collins, United States, John Michael Forsythe, Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, United States and Thomas H Vonder Haar, Colorado State University, Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, CO, United States
 
Atmospheric Rivers Influencing Severe Storm Environments (1872981)
Christopher A Davis, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, Jason M Cordeira, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, United States, Samuel Bartlett, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States and Jana Houser, Ohio State University Main Campus, Columbus, OH, United States
 
Global Atmospheric River Historical Data Record: Combining AR Detection and Intensity Categorization (1880638)
Emily A Slinskey1, Jonathan Rutz2, F Martin Ralph2 and Bin Guan3, (1)Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States, (2)Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, La Jolla, United States, (3)University of California, Los Angeles, Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, Los Angeles, United States
 
Atmospheric Rivers as Key Drivers of Global Extreme Precipitation: The observed analysis from 1979 to 2024 (1889530)
gopi Nadh Konda, June-Yi Lee, Pusan National University, Department of Climate System, Busan, South Korea, Arjun Babu Nellikkattil, PhD, IBS Center for Climate Physics, Pusan National University, Department of Climate System, Busan, South Korea and Bin Guan, University of California, Los Angeles, Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, Los Angeles, United States
 
Atmospheric Rivers Drive Contrasting Vertical Structures of Extreme Temperatures Over Svalbard Across Seasons (1890237)
Yan Chen, Annette Rinke, Jan Landwehrs and Sofie Tiedeck, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz-Center for Polar and Marine Research Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
 
From Coast to Crest: Using Backwards Trajectories to Estimate Atmospheric Rivers’ Contributions to Colorado’s Wettest Days (1892425)
Jonathan Rutz1, Deanna Nash2, Jason M Cordeira3, Zhenhai Zhang3, F Martin Ralph4, Kris Sanders5 and Erin Walter5, (1)Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, La Jolla, United States, (2)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Univ. of California San Diego, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, United States, (3)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, United States, (4)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, United States, (5)National Weather Service, Grand Junction Forecast Office, Grand Junction, United States
 
Atmospheric river impacts on the Greenland Ice Sheet through the Last Interglacial (1894860)
Joseph Schnaubelt, University of Connecticut, Department of Earth Sciences, Groton, CT, United States, Clay Richard Tabor, University of Connecticut, Earth Sciences, Storrs, United States, Bette L Otto-Bliesner, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States and Juan Manuel Lora, Yale University, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, New Haven, CT, United States
 
Understanding Global Atmospheric Rivers Evolution with Energy Budget Analysis (1899042)
Aidi Zhang, University of Chicago, Department of Geophysical Sciences, Chicago, IL, United States and Da Yang, University of Chicago, Department of Geophysical Sciences, Chicago, United States
 
Rossby Wave Breaking events exacerbate the heatwave conditions over the Indian region (1909742)
Biyo Thomas1, Ravi Kumar Kunchala1, Bhupendra Bahadur Singh2, Niranjan Kumar Kondapalli3 and Yesubabu Viswanadhapalli4, (1)Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, New Delhi, India, (2)Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India, (3)National center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Noida, India, (4)National Atmospheric Research Laboratory, Tirupati, India
 
A Comparison of Northeast Inland and Coastal Drought with Atmospheric Rivers (1914025)
Caroline Gharibian, Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geneva, NY, UNITED STATES, Hailey Morse, Valparaiso University, Valparaiso, IN, United States and Nicholas D Metz, Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geoscience, Geneva, United States
 
An Investigation of Drought Busts Associated with Atmospheric Rivers in the Northeast U.S. (1914044)
Hailey Morse, Valparaiso University, Valparaiso, IN, United States, Caroline Gharibian, Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geneva, NY, UNITED STATES and Nicholas D Metz, Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geoscience, Geneva, United States
 
Atmospheric River, Cutoff Low, and Associated Precipitation Patterns in the Northeast U.S. (1914388)
Emma Ingram, Appalachian State University, Boone, United States, Nicholas D Metz, Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geoscience, Geneva, United States and Sienna Schaay, Colorado College, Colorado Springs, United States
 
Impacts of Atmospheric Rivers on Aerosol Parameters in the Northeast U.S from 2013-2017 (1914509)
Audrey Simmons, North Carolina State University Raleigh, Raleigh, NC, United States and Nicholas D Metz, Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geoscience, Geneva, United States
 
Cyclone-Driven Moisture Transport Over Europe: Seasonal Dynamics And Climate Change Implications (1920652)
Agnieszka Wypych, Jagiellonian University, Kraków, Poland
 
Simulated Responses of Extreme Moisture Transport and Atmospheric Rivers to Nuclear Conflict (1926533)
Chen Zhang, Andrew Charles Winters and Joshua Coupe, University of Colorado at Boulder, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, United States
 
Response of atmospheric river width and intensity to aquaplanet warming: A detection algorithm- and background moisture-independent approach (1930054)
Seung Hun Baek, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States, Elizabeth Elliott McClenny, Organization Not Listed, Washington, DC, United States, Paul Ullrich, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, United States, Kwesi Twentwewa Quagraine, Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, United States and William Drew Collins, Berkeley Lab and UC Berkeley, Berkeley, United States
 
Quasi-Stationary Atmospheric Rivers as the Primary Driver of Rossby Wave Activity in the Global Subtropics (1930187)
Hung-I Lee, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States and Noboru Nakamura, University of Chicago, Department of the Geophysical Sciences, Chicago, United States
 
Atmospheric Rivers Force Sea Ice Variability: Insights from the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Large Ensemble (1930577)
Alexander Massa, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, United States, Pengfei Zhang, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences, University Park, United States, Marika M Holland, Natl Ctr Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, United States, Christine A Shields, NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States, Kyle Nardi, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States and Laifang Li, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, University Park, PA, United States
 
Cloud Radiative Effects Modulate Subseasonal Variability in Atmospheric Rivers via the Baroclinic Annular Mode (1935738)
Sandro W. Lubis1, Bryce E Harrop2, Jian Lu3, Ziming Chen1 and L. Ruby Leung1, (1)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States, (2)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Atmospheric, Climate, and Earth Sciences Division, Richland, WA, United States, (3)Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
 
Atmospheric Rivers and West Antarctic Sea Ice Variations (1936641)
Anito Marcarelli1, Matthew R Mazloff1, Arthur J Miller1, Christoph Renkl2 and Xun Zou3, (1)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, United States, (2)University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany, (3)Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, United States
 
Assessing the Role of Atmospheric Rivers in Flooding: A Case Study on the Sylhet Flash Flood in 2022 (1938308)
Md Sarafat Islam, Beihang University, Space Technology Applications in Remote Sensing and GIS, Beijing, China, Sheikh Islam, Beihang University, RCSSTEAP, Hangzhou, China and Puspendu Biswas Paul, Beihang University, Space Technology Applications in Remote Sensing and GIS, Hangzhou, China
 
Fingerprints of atmospheric rivers in marine heatwaves (1948476)
Suqiong Hu, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States and Shineng Hu, Duke University, Division of Earth and Climate Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment, Durham, NC, United States
 
MJO-AR connections over the North Pacific and associated North American precipitation in CMIP6 Models (1960241)
Paul C Loikith1, Lais Fernandes1, Weiming Ma2 and Weiming Ma, (1)Portland State University, Geography, Portland, United States, (2)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, United States
 
Air-sea flux and SST variability associated with atmospheric rivers over the Arabian Sea (1968745)
Toshiaki Shinoda, Texas A&M University Corpus Christi, Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, Corpus Christi, TX, United States, Suyang Pei, Texas A&M University Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, TX, United States and Weiqing Han, University of Colorado Boulder, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, United States
 
Linking Antarctic Atmospheric River Characteristics with Their Landfalling Impacts (1970828)
James Butler1, Michelle Maclennan2, Fernando Perez3 and Jon McAuliffe1,4, (1)University of California Berkeley, Statistics, Berkeley, United States, (2)NERC British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom, (3)University of California Berkeley, Statistics, Berkeley, CA, United States, (4)The Voleon Group, Berkeley, United States
 
Investigating the Impact of Numerical Model Uncertainty in the Marine Boundary Layer on the Predictability of Atmospheric Rivers and Onshore Precipitation (1974046)
Kevin Lupo, Matthew Simpson and Luca Delle Monache, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, La Jolla, United States
 
Constraining Atmospheric River Uncertainty Using Instantaneous Poleward Latent Heat Transport (1974497)
Ankur Mahesh1,2, William Drew Collins3, William R Boos4, Travis Allen O'Brien5 and Yang Zhou1, (1)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Earth and Environmental Science, Berkeley, United States, (2)University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, United States, (3)Berkeley Lab and UC Berkeley, Berkeley, United States, (4)University of California Berkeley, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Berkeley, CA, United States, (5)Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Climate & Ecosystem Sciences Division, Berkeley, United States
 
The Interaction between Short-wave Troughs and Atmospheric Rivers over the North Pacific (1979424)
Zhenhai Zhang1, F Martin Ralph1, Jason M Cordeira1, Xun Zou1, Luca Delle Monache1, James D Doyle2 and Carolyn A. Reynolds2, (1)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, United States, (2)U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, Marine Meteorology Division, Monterey, United States
 
More Frequent and Intense Atmospheric River-Driven Extreme Precipitation Events Under Warming in a High-Resolution Climate Model (1995722)
Xiuwen Guo1, Yang Gao2, Shaoqing Zhang1, Jian Lu1, Wenju Cai3, Ruby Leung4, Jakob Zscheischler5, LuAnne Thompson6, Bin Guan7, Jonathan Rutz8, Huiwang Gao9, Chuncheng Guo10 and Lixin Wu11, (1)Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China, (2)Ocean University of China, College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Qingdao, China, (3)Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China, (4)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, United States, (5)Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany, (6)University of Washington, Oceanography, Seattle, United States, (7)Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA, California, United States, (8)Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, La Jolla, United States, (9)Ocean University of China, Key Laboratory of Marine Environment and Ecology, Qingdao, China, (10)Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark, (11)Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography and Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
 
Atmospheric River Structure and Energy Transport in a Hierarchy of Idealized Models (1998239)
Serena R Scholz, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States and Juan Manuel Lora, Yale University, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, New Haven, CT, United States
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