OS011
El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pantropical Climate Interactions: Mechanisms, Predictability, Impacts, and Projections
Session ID#: 248559
Session Description:
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most prominent interannual climate signal, affecting weather, ecosystems, and societies globally. Growing evidence highlights the complex interactions between ENSO and other climate modes and patterns, which can modulate ENSOâs dynamics and impacts and may offer potential for improving climate predictability. This session invites contributions that address all aspects of ENSO and its pantropical climate interactions both in observations and climate models. Topics include but are not limited to air-sea coupled dynamics, sub-seasonal-to-seasonal predictions, low frequency variations, externally forced changes, teleconnections, and impacts on various aspects of society. Studies examining the role of ENSO and pantropical climate interactions in shaping recent global surface temperature trends are also welcome.
Co-Sponsor(s):
Index Terms:
1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1620 Climate dynamics [GLOBAL CHANGE]
3339 Ocean/atmosphere interactions [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4522 ENSO [OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL]
Primary Convener: Sen Zhao, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Honolulu, United States
Conveners: Malte F Stuecker, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, United States, Antonietta Capotondi, University of Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, United States and Soong-Ki Kim, Yale University, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, New Haven, United States
Student/Early Career Convener: Matt Luongo, University of Washington, Seattle, United States
A Unified Data-Driven Framework for Skillful Seasonal Climate Forecasting: Case Study on Hawaii Wave Prediction (1944096)
Sen Zhao1, Ning Li1, Fei-Fei Jin2 and Kwok Fai Cheung1, (1)University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States, (2)University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Honolulu, HI, United States
Amplified Impacts of Multi-year La Niñas on Soil Moisture Compared to Single-year La Niñas (1979951)
Tingting Zhu, University of California Riverside, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Riverside, United States, Jin-Yi Yu, Univ California Irvine, Department of Earth System Science, Irvine, United States and Min-Hui Lo, National Taiwan University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Taipei, Taiwan
An interpretation of the tropical Pacific and Atlantic interactions from pacemaker experiments (1921142)
Yusen Liu, Brown University, Providence, RI, United States, Matthew Newman, NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, United States, Antonietta Capotondi, University of Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, United States and Prof. Emanuele Di Lorenzo, PhD, Brown University, Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences, Providence, United States
Unusual growth of the 2023-24 El Niño against the odds of Indo-Atlantic warming (Invited) (1995212)
Qihua Peng1, Shang-Ping Xie1, Ayumu Miyamoto1, Clara Deser2, Pengcheng Zhang1 and Matt Luongo3,4, (1)University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, United States, (2)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, United States, (3)University of California, San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, United States, (4)University of Washington, CICOES & School of Oceanography, Seattle, United States
Climate change and the 2023-24 El Niño Boost Global Mean Surface Temperatures to a New Record 1.5°C Above Pre-industrial Levels (1859175)
Michael J McPhaden, NOAA Seattle, Seattle, WA, United States, Ning Jiang, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China, Congwen Zhu, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Hangzhou, China, Tao Lian, Second Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Hangzhou, China, Zeng-Zhen Hu, Climate Prediction Center College Park, College Park, United States, Chen Zhou, Nanjing University, Department of Geographic Information Science, Nanjing, China and Deliang Chen, Tsinghua University, Department of Earth System Science, Beijing, China
Detecting nonlinear causal relationships between El Niño and soil moisture in tropical forests (1976298)
Kaleb Florence1,2, Shengjie Liu1,3, Brycen Lynch4,5, Carla Roesch6, Juan Nathaniel7 and Ensheng Weng8, (1)Columbia University, New York, United States, (2)Temple University, Philadelphia, United States, (3)University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (4)Columbia University, Blacksburg, United States, (5)Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, United States, (6)University of Edinburgh, School of Geosciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom, (7)Columbia University, Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, New York, United States, (8)Columbia University, Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, United States
Diagnosing the Mechanisms Limiting ENSO Predictability with Interactive Ensemble Release Experiments (2001609)
Caitlin Martinez, MS1, Ben P Kirtman1, Sarah Larson2, Natalie Perlin3 and Robert Payne2, (1)University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, Miami, United States, (2)North Carolina State University Raleigh, Raleigh, United States, (3)RedLine Performance Solutions, LLC, Key Biscayne, FL, United States
Extreme El Niño boosted by a boreal spring western Pacific salinity pattern (1945422)
Shizuo Liu, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States, Shineng Hu, Duke University, Division of Earth and Climate Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment, Durham, NC, United States and Michael J McPhaden, NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, United States
Global patterns in OHC, their relationship to ENSO, and the implications for tropical cyclones (1962608)
Robert Forney, U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, United States, Paul Miller, Louisiana State University, Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences, Baton Rouge, United States and Travis Smith, Naval Research Laboratory, Ocean Sciences, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States
How Noise Shapes ENSO: The Role of Seasonal Timing in Event Development (1898198)
Alexandra Vizcarra1, Daniel Vimont1, Matthew Newman2, Erin Thomas3 and Melissa Breeden4, (1)University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI, United States, (2)University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, United States, (3)Los Alamos National Laboratory, Theoretical Division, Los Alamos, NM, United States, (4)CIRES CU-Boulder and NOAA-PSL, Boulder, CO, United States
Interdecadal Change in the Relationship Between Northeast Pacific Sea Surface Temperature and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (1910676)
Jiajie Chen1, Jian Shi1, Yingying Zhao2 and Antonietta Capotondi3, (1)Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China, (2)Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China, (3)University of Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, United States
On the Rationale of Low-Order Model for Seasonal Prediction of ENSO and Beyond (1985038)
Licheng Geng, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Honolulu, United States, Fei-Fei Jin, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Honolulu, HI, United States and Sen Zhao, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Honolulu, United States
Physical Mechanisms behind Triple-Dip La Niñas (a Prediction Perspective) (1991623)
Prof. Yu-heng Tseng, PhD, National Taiwan University, Institute of Oceanography & Ocean Center, Taipei, Taiwan, Han-Ching Chen, NUIST Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing, China and Jo-Hsu Huang, National Taiwan University, Institute of Oceanography, Taipei, Taiwan
Remote versus Local Tropical Controls on Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Variability (1891610)
Mahdi Hasan, North Carolina State University Raleigh, Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, Raleigh, NC, United States, Kay McMonigal, University of Alaska Fairbanks, College of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, Fairbanks, AK, United States, Sarah Larson, North Carolina State University Raleigh, Raleigh, United States, Martha W Buckley, George Mason University, Fairfax, United States and Young-Oh Kwon, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, United States
Shifted Relationship between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclogenesis since the 1990s (1846689)
Cong Zhou, Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai, China, Liguang Wu, Fudan University, Shanghai, China, Chao Wang, Nanjing University ofInformation Science and Technology, Nanjing, China and Jian Cao, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
Stationarity of Indo-Pacific basin interactions across past and future climates (1856544)
Shouyi Wang, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, United States, Antonietta Capotondi, University of Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, United States, Kristopher B Karnauskas, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, United States, Sara C Sanchez, University of Colorado at Boulder, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, United States, Delia Oppo, WHOI, Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole, United States and Caroline Ummenhofer, WHOI, Woods Hole, United States
Subsurface Ocean Turbulent Mixing Enhances Central Pacific ENSO via Positive Feedback (1866663)
Chuanyu Liu, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Key Lab of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Qingdao, China, Fan Wang, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, China, Chunzai Wang, State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, SCSIO, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China, Armin Koehl, Universität Hamburg, Centrum für Erdsystemforschung und Nachhaltigkeit, Institute of Oceanography, Hamburg, Germany and Kelvin John Richards, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, United States
Title: Bridging the Model Hierarchy: A Physics-Guided Machine Learning Framework for High-Resolution Climate Simulation Enhancement (1874785)
Charlotte Moser1, Pouria Behnoudfar1, Sibo Cheng2 and Nan Chen3, (1)University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, United States, (2)Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Ile-de-France, France, (3)University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Mathematics, Madison, United States
Unravelling the Independent Roles of ENSO and IOD in Australian Spring Climate via EOF-Filtered and Climatology-Nudged Simulations (1909972)
Ying Lung Liu1, Lisa Alexander1,2 and Jason Peter Evans1,2, (1)University of New South Wales, Climate Change Research Centre, Sydney, NSW, Australia, (2)ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, Clayton, NSW, Australia
Why Did the Marginal La Niña of 2024/25 Bring Greater Expected Winter Impacts than the Strong El Niño of 2023/24? (1896277)
Nathaniel C Johnson, NOAA, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States, Michelle L L'Heureux, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, College Park, MD, United States, Emily J Becker, University of Miami, Coral Gables, United States and Tom Di Li Liberto, Climate Central, Princeton, United States
Why El Niño contracts the tropics while global warming expands it: A thermodynamic perspective (1871449)
Tsubasa Kohyama, Department of Information Sciences, Ochanomizu University, Tokyo, Japan, Hiroaki Miura, Graduate School of Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan and Kazuya Yamazaki, Information Technology Center, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan
