GC042
Earth System Predictability Across Timescales for Societal Resilience: Grand challenges and recent advancements
Session ID#: 249498
Session Description:
The increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events, driven by changes in the Earth system, underscore the urgent need to advance Earth system predictability across timescales. This session will explore the grand challenges and advancements in this field, with a focus on the actionable timeframe from weeks to decades, which is crucial for addressing issues related to societal resilience including food, water, energy, infrastructure, and economic stability. Key topics include integrating Earth system science disciplines to enhance predictability from global to local scales, advancing subseasonal to decadal predictions, leveraging advanced modeling techniques such as multiscale modeling, data assimilation, and AI/ML approaches. Additionally, the session will address the needed coordination across scientific, agency, research, user, and private sector communities to improve preparedness and adaptation strategies. Contributions that utilize tools like the WWRP/WCRP S2S Database, Subseasonal Consortium, NMME, CMIP Decadal Prediction Experiments, and engage directly with vulnerable regions are highly encouraged.
Co-Sponsor(s):
Index Terms:
1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1622 Earth system modeling [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1637 Regional climate change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
3305 Climate change and variability [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
Primary Convener: Jadwiga Richter, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Conveners: Kate A Brauman, University of Alabama, Global Water Security Center, Tuscaloosa, United States, Annarita Mariotti, NOAA, Silver Spring, United States and Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Salt Lake City, UT, United States
Student/Early Career Convener: Gabrielle Brown, University of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology, Norman, United States
Evaluating the Role of Decadal Earth System Variability Modes in Modulating Drought, Heatwave, and Wildfire Risk (1884949)
Samar Minallah1, Stephen G Yeager2, Gerald Meehl2, Jadwiga Richter3 and Mari R Tye2, (1)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (2)NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (3)U. S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States
Extending MPAS-NoahMP Model Capability beyond Weather Timescale - Assessing Land-Atmosphere Interactions for Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Applications (1885772)
Zhe Zhang1, Dr. Cenlin He2, Judith Berner3, Abigail Jaye3, Changhai Liu4, Jimy Dudhia5, Kai Huang6, Tzu-Shun Lin7, Ronnie Abolafia-Rosenzweig4, Julia Kukulies4, Megan Devlan Fowler8 and Jadwiga Richter9, (1)National Center for Atmospheric Research, ASP, Boulder, United States, (2)NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (3)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (5)National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Mesoscale & Microscale Meteorology Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (6)George Mason University Fairfax, Fairfax, United States, (7)NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (8)University of California Irvine, Irvine, United States, (9)U. S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States
Developing an Open Source Meteorological Evaluation Toolkit within MELODIES-MONET (1899228)
Liam Thompson1,2, Rebecca Schwantes2, Maggie Bruckner2, Pablo Lichtig3, Chia-Hua Hsu4, Jian He2,5, Congmeng Lyu2,5, Brian C McDonald2 and MELODIES-MONET Model Development Team, (1)University of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology & Department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability, Norman, United States, (2)NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (3)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Atmospheric Chemistry Observations & Modeling Laboratory (ACOM), Boulder, United States, (4)University of Colorado Boulder, Mechanical Engineering, Boulder, United States, (5)CU Boulder/CIRES, Boulder, United States
What does a relative ENSO index mean for projections? (1913431)
Emily J Becker, University of Miami - RSMAS, Miami, FL, United States, Michelle L L'Heureux, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, College Park, MD, United States, Michael Tippett, Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, Ian Gifford, University of Miami, Rosenstiel School, Miami, United States and Michelle L'Heureux, Mike Tippett, Ben Kirtman, Ian Gifford
Does dynamical downscaling improve multiyear prediction skill on the U.S. northeast continental shelf? (1932637)
Yiming Guo, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution/Illinois State University, Woods Hole, United States, Alma CAROLINA Castillo-Trujillo, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States, Ke Chen, Woods Hole Oceanographic Inst, Woods Hole, United States and Young-Oh Kwon, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, United States
Validating Interannual to Decadal Weather Hazard Forecasting Across a Hierarchy of Methods (1957606)
Daniel B Kirk-Davidoff1, Andrew James Newman2, Sue Ellen Haupt3, Jonathan Lala4 and Kyle Sha2, (1)EPRI, Albany, United States, (2)NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (3)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)Electric Power Research Institute Palo Alto, Palo Alto, United States
Diagnosing Sources of Seasonal Precipitation Skill derived from Cyclostationary Linear Inverse Model SST Forecasts (1962306)
Melissa Breeden1, Andrew Hoell1, Weston B Anderson2, James Verdin3 and Daniel Vimont4, (1)NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (2)University of Maryland, College Park, Geographical Sciences, College Park, United States, (3)US Agency for International Development, Washington, United States, (4)University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI, United States
Xanthos-URSSIE: A unified runoff generation scheme for saturation- and infiltration-excess processes in global hydrological models (1964735)
Guta Wakbulcho Wakbulcho Abeshu, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, United States, Yuanqi Hong, University of Houston, Houston, United States, Hong-Yi Li, University of Houston, Houston, TX, United States, Thomas Bernard Wild, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, United States, Mengqi Zhao, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, United States and L. Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States
Mother's Day Solar Superstorms: Estimating Predictability Weeks-to-months Ahead (1976006)
Mausumi Dikpati1,2, Aimee Ann Norton3, Kiran Jain4, Marianna Korsos5, Peter Gilman6, Breno Raphaldini7, Nour E. Raouafi8, Scott William McIntosh2 and Andre Seiji Teruya7, (1)NSF-NCAR, High Altitude Observatory, Boulder, United States, (2)High Altitude Observatory, Boulder, United States, (3)Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States, (4)National Solar Observatory, Boulder, United States, (5)University of Sheffield, Solar Physics and Space Plasma Research Center, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Sheffield, United Kingdom, (6)High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (7)Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Sao Paulo, Brazil, (8)Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, United States
Delivering improved capabilities in global modeling to advance our understanding of Earth System Predictability (1995874)
Jon Petch, National Center for Atmosperic Research, Boulder, CO, UNITED STATES, Megan Devlan Fowler, University of California Irvine, Irvine, United States, Jadwiga Richter, U. S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, Thomas Hauser, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, Adam R Herrington, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, CGD, Boulder, United States, Brian Medeiros, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, United States and Domi Colegrove, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States
Feasibility Assessment of Decadal Forecasts for Anticipating Disaster Impacts in the Sahel Region (1996295)
Nina Omani1, Stephen G Yeager1, Thomas M Hopson2, Emily E Riddle3, Christine A Shields4, Zinta Zommers5, Greg Puley6 and Jadwiga Richter7, (1)NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (2)NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (3)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (4)NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States, (5)United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Boulder, United States, (6)United Nations, New York, NY, UNITED STATES, (7)U. S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States
