The deadline to submit a session, town hall, or pre-conference workshop proposal for AGU25 has passed. Please search for and review proposed sessions below. Please note this site is frozen as of 4/29/25 and will not reflect any changes to proposals made after this date.


Conveners will be contacted by the AGU25 Program Committee with any requests for mergers or edits to proposals. Conveners will be notified of the acceptance of their proposal in mid-June.


Abstract submissions will also open in mid-June and the deadline for abstract submissions is 30 July, 2025.


Please visit the AGU25 website for more information or please contact AGU with any questions.

Session Proposal: Applications of Climate Science in a Nonstationary Climate (AGU25)

GC024
Applications of Climate Science in a Nonstationary Climate

Session ID#: 250724

Session Description:
Many systems and services that rely on climate information were created for a stable climate. However, in a nonstationary climate, these applications face problems that include, but are not limited to, appropriately defining a baseline “normal”, evaluating the likely evolution of extreme values, and evaluating model assumptions and parameterizations. Examples of applications facing these challenges include insurance and risk management, drought monitoring, flood risk and water resource management, bridge and building design standards, agricultural impacts, and wildfire and ecosystem management. We welcome contributions focusing on (1) improving our scientific understanding of climate nonstationarity, including changes in seasonal forecasts, teleconnection stability, compound event dynamics, and extreme event definitions (e.g., heatwaves, droughts) (2) how nonstationary climates affect people, ecosystems, infrastructure, or policies, and (3) technical approaches to assessing or adapting existing systems and decision frameworks for resilience under nonstationary conditions.
Co-Sponsor(s):
  • H - Hydrology
  • NH - Natural Hazards
  • SY - Science and Society
Index Terms:

1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1807 Climate impacts [HYDROLOGY]
4313 Extreme events [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4328 Risk [NATURAL HAZARDS]
Primary Convener:  Dr. Michael Cecil, PhD, University of Maryland College Park, Geographical Sciences, College Park, United States
Conveners:  Weston B Anderson, University of Maryland College Park, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, United States, Abby Frazier, Clark University, Worcester, United States and Zhiying Li, Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, IN, United States
 
Identifying the Timing of Regional Summertime Minimum Temperature Threshold Crossings and the Potential Subsequent Climate Evolutions (1870023)
Marybeth Arcodia, University of Miami, Miami, United States and Elizabeth Barnes, Boston University, Computing and Data Sciences, Earth and Environment, Boston, United States
 
A Review of Climate Normals for Drought Indices (Invited) (1875121)
Joel Lisonbee, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, United States, John W Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College Station, United States, Blair Trewin, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia, Britt A Parker, NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System, Boulder CO, United States and Gretel Follingstad, Environmental Defense Fund, Santa Fe, United States
 
Developing climate-robust long-term ecological monitoring programs (1876030)
Madeleine Burns1, David J. Lawrence2, David Thoma3, Koren Nydick4, Joel Reynolds5, Jena Hickey6, Marie Denn7, Kirk Sherrill4 and Jessica Weinberg McClosky6, (1)Scientists in Parks Program, Conservation Legacy, Durango, United States, (2)National Park Service Fort Collins, Climate Change Response Program, Fort Collins, United States, (3)National Park Service Bozeman, Bozeman, United States, (4)National Park Service Fort Collins, Fort Collins, United States, (5)Solutions Consulting LLC, Fort Collins, United States, (6)National Park Service San Francisco, San Francisco, United States, (7)National Park Service Point Reyes, Point Reyes Station, United States
 
Drought assessment in a nonstationary climate (Invited) (1887279)
Justin S Mankin, Dartmouth College, Department of Geography, Hanover, United States and Zhiying Li, Dartmouth College, Geography, Hanover, United States
 
Defining extremes in a changing climate: lessons from the marine heatwave community (1896526)
Dillon J Amaya1, Michael Jacox1,2, Prof. Melanie R Fewings, PhD3, Vincent S Saba4, Malte F Stuecker5, Ryan R Rykaczewski6, Andrew Ross7, Charles A Stock8, Antonietta Capotondi9, Colleen Petrik10, Steven J. Bograd11, Michael A Alexander1, Wei Cheng12, Albert J Hermann13, Kelly Kearney14 and Brian Powell15, (1)NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (2)NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, La Jolla, CA, United States, (3)Oregon State University, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Corvallis, OR, United States, (4)NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service, Princeton, NJ, United States, (5)International Pacific Research Center and Department of Oceanography, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, United States, (6)NOAA Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, Honolulu, United States, (7)NOAA/OAR/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States, (8)NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States, (9)University of Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, United States, (10)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Integrative Oceanography Division, La Jolla, United States, (11)National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Monterey, United States, (12)University of Washington/CICOES, Seattle, United States, (13)University of Washington, Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies (CICOES), Seattle, United States, (14)University of Washington, Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies, Seattle, United States, (15)Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, United States
 
A Game-based Experiment to Identify 'Boiling Frog' Bias in Climate Change Adaptation (1896527)
Lauren McGiven, University of Notre Dame, Civil and Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences, Notre Dame, IN, United States and Marc Muller, University of Notre Dame, Civil and Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences, Notre Dame, United States; EAWAG Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Department Systems Analysis, Integrated Assessment and Modelling, Dübendorf, Switzerland
 
Implications for Water Supply vs Environmental Recovery Under Stationary vs Non-Stationary Planning, A Case Study for Mono Lake (1899508)
Benjamin Bass1, Sara Graves2, Lei Huang3 and Alex Hall2, (1)University of California Los Angeles, Atmoshperic and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (2)University of California Los Angeles, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, United States, (3)University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United States
 
Coupled air-sea interaction drove and sustained the 2013--2016 North Pacific Marine Heatwaves (1922591)
Dr. Yuanyuan Song, PhD, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Earth, Atmospheric & Planetary Sciences, Cambridge, MA, United States, Wenrui Jiang, Johns Hopkins University, Earth and Planetary Science, Baltimore, United States, Gael Forget, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States and Thomas W N Haine, Johns Hopkins University, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Baltimore, MD, United States
 
Extreme Heat Threatens Global Bridges in the Warming Climate (1941906)
Mengxin Pan, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada, Yanjia Wang, The University of Hong Kong, Department of Civil Engineering, Hong Kong, China, Shineng Hu, Duke University, Division of Earth and Climate Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment, Durham, NC, United States, Dawei Gu, Southeast university, School of Civil Engineering, Nanjing, China and Francis T.K. Au, University of Hong Kong, Department of Civil Engineering, Hong Kong, China
 
A Comparison of Flood Frequency Methods under Climate Nonstationarity (1972298)
Thomas Mark Over, USGS Central Midwest Water Science Center, Urbana, Illinois, United States, Nancy A. Barth, USGS Wyoming-Montana Water Science Center, Helena, Montana, United States and Sara Levin, USGS Upper Midwest Water Science Center, St. Paul, Minnesota, United States
 
Quantifying Snow Information in a Changing Climate (1975575)
Marianne Cowherd, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, United States, Utkarsh Mital, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Earth and Environmental Sciences Area, Berkeley, CA, United States, Stefan Rahimi, University of Wyoming, Atmospheric Science, Laramie, United States, Manuela Girotto, University of California Berkeley, Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, Berkeley, United States, Andrew Schwartz, University of California Berkeley, Central Sierra Snow Lab, Berkeley, United States and Daniel Feldman, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States
 
A Relative Sea Surface Temperature Index for Monitoring and Predicting the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (Invited) (1976916)
Michelle L L'Heureux, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, College Park, MD, United States
 
Post-Little Ice Age Warming Reduces Ice-Jam Floods in the Lower Yellow River (1982463)
Shi-Yong Yu, Jiangsu Normal University, School of Geography, Geomatics, and Planning, Xuzhou, China and Xuefeng Yu, Inst of Earth Environment, Xian, China
 
Nonstationarity in a US Rainfall Index Insurance Program: How Producers Have Adapted to Shifting Rainfall Patterns (1985166)
Dr. Michael Cecil, PhD, University of Maryland College Park, Geographical Sciences, College Park, United States, Elinor Benami, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, United States, Jennifer Ifft, Kansas State University, Department of Agricultural Economics, Manhattan, United States, Jisang Yu, Korea University, Dept. of Food and Resource Economics, Seoul, South Korea and Anne Carroll, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Agricultural and Applied Economics, Blacksburg, United States
 
Using Quantile Mapping to Track Changes in Climate Distributions over Time (1997429)
Timothy Ivancic, Rob Cirincione, Brent Ho, Olivia Pfeiffer and Eric Hewitt, Sunairio, Baltimore, United States
 
Exploring nonstationarity of ENSO teleconnections using state-of-the-art Linear Inverse Models (2000364)
Susannah Heller and Sloan Coats, University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, Honolulu, United States
See more of: Global Environmental Change
<< Previous Session Proposal | Next Session Proposal >>