<em>Reducing Uncertainty and Operationalizing MMRV for Soil Carbon and Nitrous Oxide on Working Lands</em>

Fowler, Ames

GC010
Reducing Uncertainty and Operationalizing MMRV for Soil Carbon and Nitrous Oxide on Working Lands

Session ID#: 251910

Session Description:

With rising interest in soil-based climate solutions, robust Measurement, Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MMRV) systems are essential for credibility and impact. This session invites contributions that address uncertainty in soil organic carbon and N₂O estimates in cropland and grassland systems. We seek work that advances or challenges MMRV frameworks while balancing accuracy, standardization, and usability. Presentation might include new or novel approaches to activity data, model calibration, structural assumptions, observational error, practice implementation, and more.We welcome topics such as: AI and/or remote sensing for monitoring and verification of management activity, data pipelines for On-farm and long-term research site harmonization, calibration and validation with multi-vector datasets, model sensitivity and structural uncertainty analysis and reporting, uncertainty for mapping, and targeted resampling. We aim to unite modeling, soil science, AI, and remote sensing communities to build scalable, transparent MMRV systems supporting inventories, carbon markets, and corporate reporting. Practical, forward-looking contributions are especially encouraged.

Co-Sponsor(s):

B - Biogeosciences
SY - Science and Society

Index Terms:

0428 Carbon cycling [BIOGEOSCIENCES]
0486 Soils/pedology [BIOGEOSCIENCES]
1615 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling [GLOBAL CHANGE]
6309 Decision making under uncertainty [POLICY SCIENCES & PUBLIC ISSUES]

Primary Convener: Ames Fowler, Colorado State University, Soil Carbon Solutions Center, Fort Collins, United States

Conveners: Ram B Gurung, Colorado State University, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Fort Collins, United States, Jocelyn Marie Lavallee, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, United States and Lauren Gifford, Colorado State University, Soil Carbon Solutions Center, Fort Collins, United States

The Impact of Individual Choices on Robust Validation of Process-based Models for Quantifying Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions (1854237)

Beth Ziniti¹, Haixin Chen¹, Katelyn Winkler¹, Curtis Dinneen Jones¹, William Salas², Katelyn Dolan Aldenhoff¹ and Jacob Penner¹, (1)Regrow Ag, Durham, United States, (2)Regrow Ag, Durham, NH, United States

Leveraging Agentic Large-Language Models to Scale MRV Data Pipelines for Agricultural Modeling (1860304)

Rana Genedy¹, Haixin Chen¹, Yuanpei (Kean) Gao¹, Curtis Dinneen Jones¹, Gayathri Gopalakrishnan² and William Salas², (1)Regrow Ag, Durham, United States, (2)Regrow Ag, Durham, NH, United States

Spatiotemporal uncertainties in carbon budget estimation: assessing the impact of autocorrelation on the portfolio effect (1872469)

Michael Dietze and Charlotte Malmborg, Boston University, Boston, United States

Reducing Uncertainty in Soil Nitrous Oxide Emissions using a Process-Based Model Ensemble in a Bayesian Framework (Invited) (1902375)

Stephen M Ogle¹, Ram B Gurung², Jaber Rahimi³, Diego Abalos⁴, Klaus Butterbach-Bahl⁵, M Francesca Cotrufo⁶, Edwin Haas³, Dr. Ralf Kiese³, David Kraus³, Clemens Scheer³, Shannon Spencer² and Yao Zhang², (1)Colorado State University, Fort Collins, United States, (2)Colorado State University, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Fort Collins, United States, (3)Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany, (4)Aarhus University, Agroecology, Aarhus, Denmark, (5)Aarhus University, Agroecology, Aarhus C, Denmark, (6)Colorado State University, Soil and Crop Sciences, Fort Collins, United States

Uncovering Statistically Significant Changes in Soil Organic Carbon Stocks Across the Australian Agricultural Landscape (1909691)

Senani Karunaratne¹, Mark Farrell², Liz Stower³, Christina Asanopoulos², Chiara Pasut², Frances Hoyle⁴, Tamara O’Keeffe⁴, Bonnie Armour⁵, Amanda Schapel⁵, Doug Crawford⁶, Malcolm McCaskill⁶, Glenn Brown⁷, Rob Moreton⁷, Mary Garrard⁸, Katherine Polain⁸, Brian Wilson⁸, Massimiliano De Antoni Migliorati⁹ and Steven Reeves⁹, (1)CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Canberra, ACT, Australia, (2)CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Adelaide, SA, Australia, (3)CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Brisbane, QLD, Australia, (4)Murdoch University, Perth, Western Australia, Australia, (5)Department of Primary Industries and Regions, Adelaide, SA, Australia, (6)Agriculture Victoria Research, Melbourne, VIC, Australia, (7)Department of Natural Resources and Environment Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia, (8)University of New England, Armidale, NSW, Australia, (9)Department of the Environment, Tourism, Science and Innovation, Brisbane, QLD, Australia

RangeStar: A Remote Sensing-Driven Process-Based Model for Estimating Rangeland Productivity and Carbon Dynamics (1923598)

Yushu Xia¹, Jonathan Sanderman², Jennifer Watts², Andrew Mullen², Jiaming Duan³, Anna Orfanou² and Arthur Endsley⁴, (1)Columbia University of New York, NYC, United States, (2)Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, United States, (3)Columbia University of New York, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States, (4)University of Montana, Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group, Missoula, United States

Estimating Soil Organic Carbon at National Scale Using EMIT Hyperspectral Data (1938358)

Na Chen, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, United States and Sherrie Wang, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Cambridge, United States

Advancing Soil Organic Carbon Stock MMRV Rigor Via Quantification of Resampling Variability in Midwestern US Soils (1958835)

Martha Farella, Allan R Bacon, Christopher Leber, Maxine Navarrette and Jannet Vu, Yardstick PBC, Dover, United States

Priority areas for reducing uncertainty in MMRV for agricultural soil carbon storage and greenhouse gas emission reductions (1963819)

Jocelyn Marie Lavallee¹, Emily E. Oldfield², Anna M Raffeld², Jonathan Sanderman³, Alison J Eagle⁴, Doria R. Gordon⁵ and Collaborators, (1)Environmental Defense Fund, New York, United States, (2)Environmental Defense Fund, Washington, United States, (3)Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, United States, (4)Environmental Defense Fund, Raleigh, United States, (5)Environmental Defense Fund, Washington D.C., United States

Closing the Loop on BiCRS: Understanding Green-house Gas Emissions from Post-products of Biomass with Carbon Removal and Storage and their Interactions with Soil (1972023)

Allegra Mayer, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States and Aaron Chew, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, United States

Analysis of Systematic and Random Errors Associated with Equivalent Soil Mass Sampling with Modeled Soil Core Datasets (1975111)

Heath Goertzen, University of California Davis, Land, Air, and Water Resources, Davis, United States and Eric Slessarev, Yale University, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale Center for Natural Carbon Capture, New Haven, United States

Reducing SOC MMRV Cost Via High-Performing and Novel Bulk Density Estimates (1975348)

Martha Farella, Allan Bacon, Christopher Leber, Maxine Navarrette and Jannet Vu, Yardstick PBC, Dover, United States

Building Market Confidence: Scalable, Science-Based Modeling of Soil Carbon Dynamics for MRV (1977139)

Hamze Dokoohaki¹, Charles D Brummitt², Ashok A Kumar² and Carleen Bowers³, (1)Indigo Ag, Madison, Wisconsin, UNITED STATES, (2)Indigo Ag, Inc, Boston, United States, (3)IndigoAg, Virgina, United States

From Framework to Field: Implementing MMRV in Agricultural Carbon and Natural Climate Solutions at Scale (Invited) (1989939)

Negar Tafti¹, Jacob Penner¹, Philipo Lukumay², Rajveer Singh³, Heena Sharma³ and Stephen Wood¹, (1)The Nature Conservancy, United States, (2)The Nature Conservancy, Tanzania, (3)The Nature Conservancy, India

Building Confidence in Soil Carbon Accounting Through Adoption of Causal Measure-and-Remeasure MMRV Approaches (1993663)

Mark Bradford¹, Alexander Polussa², Sara Kuebbing², Eric Potash³ and Emily E. Oldfield⁴, (1)Yale University, The Forest School, New Haven, United States, (2)Yale University, School of the Environment, New Haven, United States, (3)University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, United States, (4)Environmental Defense Fund, Washington, United States

A Multimodel Hybrid Framework (MHF) to Assess N₂O Emission Mitigation Potential of Regenerative Agricultural Practices Across the US Midwest (1994522)

Prateek Sharma¹, Bruno Basso¹, Aditya Manuraj², Tommaso Tadiello³ and Mukta Sharma³, (1)Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, United States, (2)Michigan State University, Earth and Environmental Sciences, East Lansing, United States, (3)Michigan State University, Earth and Environmental Sciences, East Lansing, MI, United States

Site-level measurements, monitoring, and data–model integration techniques for improved ecosystem carbon forecasting (1995372)

John Field¹, Brandon Sloan², Robin Clark², Misha Krassovski¹ and Udaya Kalluri³, (1)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge, TN, United States, (2)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, United States, (3)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States

Let’s be honest about data limitations: the unknown uncertainties of projecting soil carbon models well outside of their calibration space. (1995934)

Jonathan Sanderman, Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, United States

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GC010 Reducing Uncertainty and Operationalizing MMRV for Soil Carbon and Nitrous Oxide on Working Lands

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Index Terms:

GC010
Reducing Uncertainty and Operationalizing MMRV for Soil Carbon and Nitrous Oxide on Working Lands