Confronting Earth System Model Trends with Observations

Session ID#: 279537

Session Description:
Anthropogenically forced climate change signals are emerging from the noise of internal variability in observations, and the impacts on society are growing. For decades, Climate or Earth System Models have been predicting how these climate change signals will unfold. The climate science community is now in a position to confront the signals, as represented by historical trends, in models with observations. We welcome contributions that take stock of the ability of models to capture recent trends across all Earth system components. Contributions highlighting successes and discrepancies, robust procedures for confronting observed and modeled trends, moving beyond quantification into understanding the origins of historical trends in the observational record and/or models, and cutting-edge methods (e.g. Machine Learning, kilometer scale models, hindcasts) for identifying sources of discrepancies and separating forced signals from internal variability are all welcome.
Co-Sponsor(s):
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • C - Cryosphere
  • H - Hydrology
  • OS - Ocean Sciences
Index Terms:

1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1620 Climate dynamics [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1626 Global climate models [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1637 Regional climate change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
Primary Convener:  Tiffany Shaw, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States
Conveners:  Isla Simpson, National Center for Atmospheric Research, CGD Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States and Stephen Po-Chedley, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Livermore, CA, United States
Student/Early Career Convener:  Senne Van Loon, Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, United States