Machine Learning (ML)/Artificial Intelligence (AI) Advances in Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction of Natural Hazards

Session ID#: 280759

Session Description:
Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction is often described as a “predictability desert,” where the influence of initial conditions weakens while large-scale boundary forcings are partially developed. Yet improving S2S forecasts of extreme weather is essential for flood risk mitigation, water resource management, and societal resilience. With the rapid advancement of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI), new strategies are emerging to enhance predictability by capturing complex, nonlinear processes, including teleconnections, subseasonal variability (e.g., MJO, QBO), and multiscale interactions. This session invites contributions exploring AI/ML for S2S prediction of natural hazards, including but not limited to AI-based forecasting of extremes (e.g., atmospheric rivers, extreme precipitation, tropical cyclones, heatwaves); hybrid dynamical–AI approaches; multi-model ensemble methods; AI data-driven post-processing and bias correction; AI agents for S2S prediction; evaluation of forecast skill across weeks 2–6 and seasonal scales; and regional case studies linking S2S forecasts to decision-making and risk management.
Index Terms:

4301 Atmospheric [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4313 Extreme events [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4315 Monitoring, forecasting, prediction [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4328 Risk [NATURAL HAZARDS]
Primary Convener:  Zhiqi Yang, University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, CA, United States
Conveners:  Michael J Deflorio, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, United States, Luca Delle Monache, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, La Jolla, United States and Weiming Hu, University of Georgia, Center for Geospatial Research, Department of Geography, Athens, United States
See more of: Natural Hazards