Model Initialization and Subseasonal-to-Decadal Predictability: Methods, Mechanisms, and Extremes

Session ID#: 280768

Session Description:
Skillful subseasonal-to-decadal (S2D) prediction depends critically on the quality of model initial conditions. This session invites contributions that explore how initialization strategies, including reanalysis-based approaches, forced ocean–sea ice simulations, data assimilation, leveraging emerging in-situ and remotely sensed land/ocean/atmosphere observations, and AI-based methods, shape S2D prediction skill and advance our understanding of Earth system predictability. We welcome studies that assess prediction skill for modes of variability and high-impact extreme events (e.g., hydroclimate, temperature extremes, tropical weather), as well as process-level investigations of how initial conditions drive improvements in prediction and forecasts of opportunity. Contributions addressing the predictability of regional extremes, the role of land and ocean memory and land-atmosphere-ocean interactions in sustaining prediction skill, and emerging AI or hybrid frameworks for improving initial conditions are also encouraged.
Index Terms:

1622 Earth system modeling [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1817 Extreme events [HYDROLOGY]
3238 Prediction [MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS]
3315 Data assimilation [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
Primary Convener:  Pengfei Shi, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States
Conveners:  L. Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States, Brett M Raczka, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States and Peyman Abbaszadeh, Portland State University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Portland, United States
See more of: Atmospheric Sciences