Perturbed Parameter Ensembles (PPEs) for Understanding Processes and Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions
Perturbed Parameter Ensembles (PPEs) for Understanding Processes and Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions
Session ID#: 280779
Session Description:
Perturbed Parameter Ensembles (PPEs) are a powerful tool enabling process understanding and uncertainty quantification in numerical models, including Earth System Models (ESMs). For this session, we invite presentations on the design and use of PPEs spanning computational model types and ESM components (e.g., atmosphere, land, ocean, ice). Model configurations across spatial scales and complexities are of interest. We welcome submissions that target development of methods for coupled and uncoupled PPEs. Submissions focused on using PPEs for addressing general science questions, model calibration, development of observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) frameworks, and those enabling insight on whether process representation is limited by parameterization structure or parameter settings, are encouraged. Submissions that discuss how model uncertainty is shaped by particular ESM components versus that which arises from use of coupled configurations are also welcomed.
Co-Sponsor(s):
- A - Atmospheric Sciences
- B - Biogeosciences
- H - Hydrology
- OS - Ocean Sciences
Index Terms:
1622 Earth system modeling [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1627 Coupled models of the climate system [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1952 Modeling [INFORMATICS]
1990 Uncertainty [INFORMATICS]
Primary Convener: Katherine Dagon, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States
Conveners: Gregory Elsaesser, Columbia University/NASA GISS, New York, United States and Addisu Semie, Columbia University, New York, United States
Student/Early Career Convener: Travis Aerenson, University of Wyoming, Laramie, United States
See more of: Global Environmental Change