Earth System Predictability Across Timescales for Societal Resilience: Grand challenges and recent advancements

Session ID#: 280994

Session Description:
The increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events, driven by changes in the Earth system, underscore the urgent need to advance Earth system predictability across timescales. This session will explore the grand challenges and advancements in this field, with a focus on the actionable timeframe from weeks to decades, which is crucial for addressing issues related to societal resilience including food, water, energy, infrastructure, and economic stability. Key topics include integrating Earth system science disciplines to enhance predictability from global to local scales, advancing subseasonal to decadal predictions, leveraging advanced modeling techniques such as multiscale modeling, data assimilation, and AI/ML approaches. Additionally, the session will address the coordination needed across scientific, agency, research, user, and private sector communities to improve preparedness and adaptation strategies. Contributions that utilize tools like the WWRP/WCRP S2S Database, Subseasonal Consortium, NMME, CMIP Decadal Prediction Experiments, and engage directly with vulnerable regions are highly encouraged.
Co-Sponsor(s):
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • SY - Science and Society
Index Terms:

1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1622 Earth system modeling [GLOBAL CHANGE]
4313 Extreme events [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4327 Resilience [NATURAL HAZARDS]
Primary Convener:  Jadwiga Richter, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Conveners:  Annarita Mariotti, NOAA, Silver Spring, United States, Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Salt Lake City, UT, United States and Kate A Brauman, University of Alabama, Global Water Security Center, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States
Student/Early Career Convener:  Gabrielle Brown, Northern Vermont University, Atmospheric Sciences, Lyndonville, United States