MultiSector Dynamics: Uncertainty Characterization for Coupled Natural-Human Systems
MultiSector Dynamics: Uncertainty Characterization for Coupled Natural-Human Systems
Session ID#: 281357
Session Description:
Multi-sector and coupled natural-human systems often feature complex adaptive dynamics, including feedbacks and tipping points, and involve many uncertainties. However, models of coupled natural-human systems often fail to characterize uncertainty and its propagation across systems. Uncertainty characterization plays an important role in understanding and projecting dynamics in these systems under future socioeconomic and environmental conditions. It is therefore an essential component of MultiSector Dynamics (MSD) research, which aims to advance our understanding of the co-evolution of human and natural systems over time. This session invites contributions addressing the challenge of uncertainty characterization for systems that bridge sectors (e.g., energy, water, transportation) and scales (spatial, temporal, and institutional) to understand their dynamics and improve decision-making. We welcome contributions focusing on the probabilistic quantification of uncertainty in coupled natural-human systems, the development of outcome-oriented scenarios, or hybrid approaches, as well as uncertainty propagation through coupled systems to decision-relevant outcomes and metrics.
Index Terms:
1622 Earth system modeling [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1990 Uncertainty [INFORMATICS]
4327 Resilience [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4328 Risk [NATURAL HAZARDS]
Primary Convener: Vivek Srikrishnan, Cornell University, Biological & Environmental Engineering, Ithaca, NY, United States
Conveners: Jonathan Lamontagne, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States and Julianne Quinn, University of Virginia, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Charlottesville, United States
Student/Early Career Convener: Abigail Nora Birnbaum, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Ithaca, United States
See more of: Global Environmental Change