Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change: Coupling of Observations and Models; Integrated Attribution, Prediction and Projection; Assessment of Current and Future Hazards

Session ID#: 282038

Session Description:
The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) envisions a world “that uses sound, relevant, and timely climate science to ensure a more resilient present and sustainable future for humankind.” The WCRP Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change aims to develop an integrated capability to understand, attribute, and predict changes in the Earth system on multi-annual to decadal timescales and global to regional space scales, including capabilities for early warning of potential high impact changes and events. With this session we aim to document progress in this area, identify challenges, and explore future directions towards achieving this goal. We invite contributions in three thematic areas: (i) monitoring and modelling Earth system change, particularly approaches demonstrating tight coupling between observational and modeling efforts; (ii) integrated attribution, prediction, and projection of Earth system change, and (iii) assessment and attribution of current and future hazards, such as tropical cyclones, heatwaves, and droughts.
Co-Sponsor(s):
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • H - Hydrology
  • OS - Ocean Sciences
Index Terms:

1622 Earth system modeling [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1817 Extreme events [HYDROLOGY]
3305 Climate change and variability [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4315 Monitoring, forecasting, prediction [NATURAL HAZARDS]
Primary Convener:  Isla Simpson, National Center for Atmospheric Research, CGD Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States
Conveners:  Amy H Butler, NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, University of Colorado, Boulder, United States, Zhuo Wang, University of Illinois, Urbana, United States and Kirsten Lynn Findell, NOAA, Princeton, United States
See more of: Global Environmental Change
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