Forecasting Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) Events: Gaps, Challenges, and the Need for Mitigation

Session ID#: 282335

Session Description:
Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events remain one of the most consequential and least predictable elements of space weather, driving radiation hazards for crewed missions, polar aviation, spacecraft electronics, and dependent ground infrastructure. As human and commercial activity in cislunar space expands, operational SEP forecasting has become a mission-critical need. Yet three long-standing problems continue to limit progress: (i) identifying SEP seed populations, (ii) characterizing acceleration across varied solar and interplanetary conditions, and (iii) modeling transport through a structured heliospheric magnetic field. Predicting the arrival and spectrum of the highest-energy SEPs, which pose the greatest risk, remains particularly challenging.

This session solicits contributions that identify specific gaps in SEP forecasting and advance mitigation strategies. We welcome work on new and planned observing infrastructure, near-real-time and extended-baseline data sets, and forecasting frameworks spanning physics-based, statistical, machine-learning, and hybrid approaches, with emphasis on translating fundamental SEP physics into operational capability.

Index Terms:

7924 Forecasting [SPACE WEATHER]
7959 Models [SPACE WEATHER]
7974 Solar effects [SPACE WEATHER]
7984 Space radiation environment [SPACE WEATHER]
Primary Convener:  Maher A Dayeh, Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio, TX, United States
Conveners:  Lulu Zhao, University of Michigan, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States, Kathryn Whitman, KBR/NASA JSC, Space Radiation Analysis Group, Houston, United States and Subhamoy Chatterjee, Southwest Research Institute Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States