Uncertainty: Navigating Chance Ignorance Risk and Luck in River Management

Session ID#: 282346

Session Description:
The Central Problem in Managing  Rivers is Uncertainty.

To manage risk,  the uncertainities must be defined and addressed. These are listed below and are all relevant to the hydrology of river basins.

Aleatory Uncertainty: Unavoidable unpredictability about the future, also known as chance, randomness or luck. Uncertainty regarding things that nobody knows.

Epistemic Uncertainty: Uncertainty due to your lack of knowledge, things that are known but not by everybody.

Ontological Uncertainty: When we are uncertain about the whole conceptualization of a problem; what the possibilities are, what the important influential factors are, what the terms mean. Essentially what are we actually dealing with?


Direct Uncertainty: an expression of numerical or verbal uncertainty about an object


Indirect Uncertainty: A qualitative statement about the strengths and weaknesses of the evidence underlying a claim about a fact, including gaps in potentially influential information.

Co-Sponsor(s):
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • GC - Global Environmental Change
  • PP - Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
Index Terms:

1807 Climate impacts [HYDROLOGY]
1809 Desertification [HYDROLOGY]
1833 Hydroclimatology [HYDROLOGY]
1873 Uncertainty assessment [HYDROLOGY]
Primary Convener:  George Rhee, University of Nevada Las Vegas, Las Vegas, NV, United States
Convener:  Mr. Kalhara Perera, University of Nevada Las Vegas, Physics and Astronomy, Las Vegas, United States
Student/Early Career Convener:  Mr. Kalhara Perera, University of Nevada Las Vegas, Physics and Astronomy, Las Vegas, United States
See more of: Hydrology