Uncertainty: Navigating Chance Ignorance Risk and Luck in River Management
Session ID#: 282346
Session Description:
To manage risk, the uncertainities must be defined and addressed. These are listed below and are all relevant to the hydrology of river basins.
Aleatory Uncertainty: Unavoidable unpredictability about the future, also known as chance, randomness or luck. Uncertainty regarding things that nobody knows.
Epistemic Uncertainty: Uncertainty due to your lack of knowledge, things that are known but not by everybody.
Ontological Uncertainty: When we are uncertain about the whole conceptualization of a problem; what the possibilities are, what the important influential factors are, what the terms mean. Essentially what are we actually dealing with?
Direct Uncertainty: an expression of numerical or verbal uncertainty about an object
Indirect Uncertainty: A qualitative statement about the strengths and weaknesses of the evidence underlying a claim about a fact, including gaps in potentially influential information.
Co-Sponsor(s):
- A - Atmospheric Sciences
- GC - Global Environmental Change
- PP - Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
Index Terms:
1807 Climate impacts [HYDROLOGY]
1809 Desertification [HYDROLOGY]
1833 Hydroclimatology [HYDROLOGY]
1873 Uncertainty assessment [HYDROLOGY]