Advancing the Flash Flood Prediction–Warning–Decision Chain

Session ID#: 282856

Session Description:
Flash flooding remains one of the most dangerous and difficult-to-predict natural hazards, driven by short lead times, strong spatial heterogeneity, and complex interactions between meteorological forcing, hydrologic response, and human decision-making. Despite advances in precipitation estimation, numerical weather prediction, and hydrologic modeling, persistent gaps remain in translating flash flood forecast information into effective warnings and timely protective actions. This session invites contributions that examine any component of the flash flood forecasting chain—from precipitation and hydrologic prediction to interpretation, communication, and decision-making. We particularly encourage interdisciplinary perspectives that connect advances in atmospheric science, hydrology, social science, and operations.

Topics of interest include:

  • Advances and limitations in precipitation estimation and prediction (QPE/QPF)
  • Hydrologic modeling approaches for flash flooding
  • Uncertainty characterization and probabilistic forecasting
  • Lead time, latency, and operational constraints
  • Decision-making under uncertainty and risk perception
  • Communication, message design, and interpretation challenges
  • Case studies of extreme events
Co-Sponsor(s):
  • NH - Natural Hazards
  • SY - Science and Society
Index Terms:

1817 Extreme events [HYDROLOGY]
1821 Floods [HYDROLOGY]
4323 Human impact [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4341 Early warning systems [NATURAL HAZARDS]
Primary Convener:  Katie van Werkhoven, Research Triangle Institute, Boone, NC, United States
Conveners:  Yinphan Tsang, University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, Natural Resources and Environmental Management, Honolulu, United States and Yu-Fen Huang, University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, Natural Resources and Environmental Management, Honolulu, United States
Student/Early Career Conveners:  Schuyler DeBree, Research Triangle Institute, San Francisco, CA, United States and Mirce Ivon Morales Velazquez, University of Vermont, Geography & Geosciences; Water Resources Institute, Burlington, United States
See more of: Hydrology