Towards a hybrid era of physical and machine learning models for extreme event prediction and understanding

Session ID#: 283142

Session Description:
Extreme events cause severe losses to both society and the environment. Although their simulation and prediction have long relied on physics-based models, progress remains constrained by high computational cost and limitations in process parameterization. Recent advances in machine learning offer promising solutions, but challenges remain in physical consistency, representational fidelity, and interpretability. Hybrid physical–machine learning models provide a path forward for improving the simulation, prediction, and projection of extreme events and their impacts. Realizing this potential, however, requires advances in identifiability, interpretability, and uncertainty quantification to ensure robust and trustworthy predictions. We welcome contributions on hybrid modeling methods, explainable and uncertainty-aware approaches, causal and attribution analyses, and applications to diverse extreme events and their impacts. This session aims to bring together researchers from physical modeling and machine learning communities to advance the next generation of extreme event prediction and understanding.
Co-Sponsor(s):
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • B - Biogeosciences
  • GC - Global Environmental Change
  • NH - Natural Hazards
Index Terms:

1622 Earth system modeling [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1627 Coupled models of the climate system [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1942 Machine learning [INFORMATICS]
4313 Extreme events [NATURAL HAZARDS]
Primary Convener:  Wenli Zhao, Columbia University, Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, New York, United States
Conveners:  Zeyu Xue, PhD, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, ASGC, Richland, United States, Wantong Li, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, Berkeley, United States, Shijie Jiang, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany and Shuaiqi WU, Emory University, Atlanta, United States
Student/Early Career Convener:  Jianing Fang, Columbia University, Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, New York, United States
See more of: Hydrology