New Compound Events and Emerging Risks: from Cyclones of Tropical Origin to the Impacts of an Ice-free Arctic

Session ID#: 283207

Session Description:
With climate change unfolding more rapidly than model projections for extreme events, new and emerging compound hazards are likely. The characteristics of such events are not well understood because the historical record is limited. For example, climate change is expanding the impacts of tropical cyclones to the midlatitudes. High-impact ex-hurricanes have hit the United States, Canada, and Western Europe, causing loss of life and severe damage. Do such events signal emerging climate risk worldwide? Another example is the rapid transition to ice-free conditions across the Arctic, driving unprecedented conditions for the development of extreme weather events across the midlatitudes. Which processes govern risk and impacts? We seek contributions to theoretical and hypothesis-driven research on new and emerging compound extremes, including analysis of observational datasets, operational product, and weather/climate simulations. Particularly welcome are case studies of unusual cyclogenesis or pathways of extremes, studies of interactions with large-scale drivers, and storyline analyses.
Index Terms:

1610 Atmosphere [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1626 Global climate models [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1630 Impacts of global change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1637 Regional climate change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
Primary Convener:  Alexander Baker, University of Reading, Department of Meteorology, Reading, RG6, United Kingdom
Conveners:  Gregor C Leckebusch, University of Birmingham, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Birmingham, B15, United Kingdom, Hayley J Fowler, Newcastle University, School of Engineering, Newcastle, United Kingdom and Pier Luigi Vidale, University of Reading, Department of Meteorology, and National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), Reading, RG6, United Kingdom
See more of: Atmospheric Sciences