GC047
Interpretation and Uncertainty Quantification of Climate, Earth System, and Integrated Assessment Models

Session ID#: 72457

Session Description:
Interpreting model simulations and addressing uncertainty are key to understanding the modeling of atmospheric, land, ocean, and socio-economic phenomena and processes. These approaches are also critical in evaluating the possible consequences and risks of model predictions/projections. We seek contributions in both philosophical and scientific model interpretation, identifying or describing sources of uncertainty, and evaluating models against observations. We also will consider methods that quantify uncertainty through both forward (sensitivity analyses) and inverse modeling (optimization/calibration) in all components of climate, earth system, and integrated assessment models, at various spatial and temporal scales.
Index Terms:

1626 Global climate models [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1627 Coupled models of the climate system [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1630 Impacts of global change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
4321 Climate impact [NATURAL HAZARDS]


Primary Convener:  Elisabeth A Lloyd, Indiana University Bloomington, History and Philosophy of Science and Medicine, Bloomington, IN, United States
Conveners:  Donald D Lucas, LLNL, Livermore, CA, United States and Jaideep Ray, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, United States
Primary Liaison:  Maoyi Huang, Pacific NW Nat'l Lab-Atmos Sci, Richland, WA, United States
 
Bias Correction of Regional Climate Model for climate change study (487208)
Mamta Rana, Organization Not Listed, Center of Excellence for Energy and Environmental Studies, Sonepat, India, Rajat Chaudhary, Kurukshetra University, Kurukshetra, India and Kamlesh Kumar Singh, India Meteorological Dept, Agromet Advisory Services Division, New Delhi, NE, India
 
Designing Projections of the Coupled Natural-Human Systems to Inform Climate Risk Management (Invited) (491419)
Klaus Keller, Pennsylvania State University, Geosciences, University Park, PA, United States
 
Quantifying uncertainty in the climate impact of the Paris Agreement (497580)
Andrei P Sokolov, Jennifer F Morris and Sergey Paltsev, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA, United States
 
Assessing the quality of scientific knowledge about future climate for adaptation: a framework (505982)
Marina Baldissera Pacchetti1, Suraje Dessai1, Seamus Bradley2 and David Alan Stainforth3, (1)University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds, United Kingdom, (2)University of Leeds, School of Philosophy, Religion and History of Science, Leeds, United Kingdom, (3)London School of Economics, GRI and CATS, London, United Kingdom
 
Uncertainty in climate projections – from philosophical concepts to predicting plausible futures of a messy reality (514106)
Reto Knutti, ETH Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
 
Learning-based Inversion-free Model-data Integration to Advance Ecosystem Model Prediction (516800)
Dan Lu, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States and Daniel M Ricciuto, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge, TN, United States
 
How to train your model: Calibrating the simple climate model Hector (517829)
Kalyn Dorheim1, Robert P Link2, Corinne Hartin3 and Ben Kravitz1, (1)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States, (2)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, United States, (3)Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, United States
 
Climate related uncertainties in integrated assessment models (IAMs) (531438)
Xuanming Su and Kaoru Tachiiri, JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC) / Research Center for Environmental Modeling and Application (CEMA) / Earth System Model Development and Application Group (ESM-DAG), Kanagawa, Japan
 
Sensitivity analysis of rock properties for CO2 sequestration into heterogeneous saline aquifers (562633)
Jaehwan Oh, Kangwon National University, Department of Energy and Resources Engineering, Chuncheon, South Korea, Changhyup Park, Kangwon National University, Department of Energy and Resources Engineering, Chuncheon, Korea, Republic of (South) and Taewoong Ahn, KIGAM, Daejeon, South Korea
 
Climate uncertainty in agricultural modeling: the effects of downscaling and bias-correction (567210)
David Conway Lafferty1, Ryan L Sriver2, Iman Haqiqi3, Thomas W Hertel3, Robert Nicholas4, Klaus Keller5 and Wolfram Schlenker6, (1)University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, United States, (2)University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, United States, (3)Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, United States, (4)Pennsylvania State University, Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, University Park, PA, United States, (5)Pennsylvania State University, Geosciences, University Park, PA, United States, (6)Columbia University, New York, United States
 
Local Epistemologies and Diversity of Purpose in the History of Climate Model Development (Invited) (586980)
Monica Ainhorn Morrison, Indiana University Bloomington, Department of Philosophy, Bloomington, IN, United States
 
Impact of Aerosol Radiative Forcing Uncertainty on Projected Exceedance Year of a 1.5℃ Global Temperature Rise (589775)
Amy Peace1, Ken S Carslaw1, Lindsay A. Lee2, Leighton Anunda Regayre3, Ben Booth4, Jill S Johnson5 and Dan Bernie4, (1)University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2, United Kingdom, (2)School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom, (3)University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom, (4)Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom, (5)University of Leeds, Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds, United Kingdom
 
Interpreting Multi-Model Agreement for Uncertainty Interpretation (603430)
Suzanne Kawamleh, Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, IN, United States
 
Calibration and Propagation of Model Structural Error for E3SM Land Model (605787)
Khachik Sargsyan1, Cosmin Safta1, Vishagan Ratnaswamy1 and Daniel Ricciuto2, (1)Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, CA, United States, (2)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, United States
 
The precipitation wildcard: diagnosing the sources of uncertainty about precipitation’s impact on welfare (617852)
Katharine Ricke1,2, Jennifer Burney3, Dillon J Amaya2, Pascal Polonik2 and Jacob Moul4, (1)University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States, (2)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States, (3)University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, United States, (4)University of California San Diego, La Jolla, United States
 
Accounting for the non-CO2 contribution to outstanding carbon budgets (617860)
Stuart Jenkins1, Michelle Cain2 and Myles Robert Allen2, (1)University of Oxford, Department of Physics, Oxford, United Kingdom, (2)University of Oxford, ECI/School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford, United Kingdom
 
Many Roads to Paris: The Uncertain Aerosol Emissions Implied by National Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets (619142)
Pascal Polonik1, Katharine Ricke1,2 and Jennifer Burney3, (1)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States, (2)University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States, (3)University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, United States
 
A minimal state-dependent impulse-response model for exploring the surface temperature response multi-gas emission scenarios and the properties of complex ESMs. (622846)
Nicholas Leach, Letchworth, NULL, United Kingdom, Stuart Jenkins, University of Oxford, Department of Physics, Oxford, United Kingdom, Myles Robert Allen, University of Oxford, ECI/School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford, United Kingdom and Christopher James Smith, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo, Oslo, Norway
 
Improved Representation of Climate System Uncertainties Reduces Extreme Social Cost of Carbon Estimates (628768)
Frank Cooper Errickson1, David Anthoff1, Klaus Keller2 and Tony E Wong3, (1)University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States, (2)Pennsylvania State University, Geosciences, University Park, PA, United States, (3)University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States