NG001
Advances in Data Assimilation, Predictability and Uncertainty Quantification
Session ID#: 72944
Session Description:
Geophysical processes are typically sparsely observed, and their dynamics are nonlinear, so that the statistics are non-Gaussian. Successful and efficient data assimilation (DA), uncertainty quantification (UQ) and prediction require that these characteristics are directly addressed. This session focuses on new ideas and advanced techniques for DA, UQ and predictability, for example: variational methods, (ensemble) Kalman filtering, adjoint and ensemble sensitivities, hybrid techniques, NDEnVAR, representer based approaches, Monte Carlo sampling, particle filters, and linear approximations to non-Gaussian/nonlinear applications. Contributions are welcome from all of the geosciences, as well as from the mathematical and statistical communities, with an aim to share ideas that can be applied across the disciplines of the AGU and the larger scientific community.
Co-Organized:
Index Terms:
1910 Data assimilation, integration and fusion [INFORMATICS]
3225 Numerical approximations and analysis [MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS]
3260 Inverse theory [MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS]
3315 Data assimilation [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
Primary Convener: Steven J Fletcher, Colorado State University, Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Fort Collins, CO, United States
Conveners: Brian C Ancell, Texas Tech Univ-Geosciences, Lubbock, TX, United States, Matthias Morzfeld, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Oakland, CA, United States and Derek J Posselt, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States
Primary Liaison: Steven J Fletcher, Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Fort Collins, CO, United States
A reduced-scale model for understanding the numerics of geomagnetic data assimilation (497108)
Kyle Gwirtz, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States, Matthias Morzfeld, University of Arizona, Department of Mathematics, Tucson, AZ, United States and Andrew Tangborn, Univ Maryland-Baltimore County, Greenbelt, MD, United States
A Feature-Based Estimation the Parameters of a Model for Earth's Axial Dipole Field on kyr and Myr Time Scales (499284)
Matthias Morzfeld, University of Arizona, Department of Mathematics, Tucson, AZ, United States and Bruce A Buffett, University of California Berkeley, Earth and Planetary Science, Berkeley, CA, United States
Development of multi-model ensemble method for radionuclides released from Fukushima nuclear accident (500749)
Daisuke Goto, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan, Yu Morino, NIES, Japan, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan, Toshimasa Ohara, NIES, Tsukuba, Japan, Tsuyoshi Thomas Sekiyama, Meteorological Res Inst, Tsukuba Ibaraki, Japan, Junya Uchida, University of Tokyo, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, Matsudo, Chiba, Japan and Nakajima Teruyuki, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, Earth Observation Research Center, Tsukuba, Japan
Application of 4-dimensional ensemble variational method for geodynamo modeling (504479)
Shinya Nakano, The Inst of Statistical Math, Tachikawa, Japan, Takuto Minami, Nagoya University, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya, Japan, Futoshi Takahashi, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan, Masaki Matsushima, Tokyo Tech, Tokyo, Japan, Hiroaki Toh, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan and Hisayoshi Shimizu, Univ Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Hybrid-Mixed Lognormal-Gaussian 3D and 4D VAR (507152)
Steven J Fletcher1, Michael Goodliff2, Anton Kliewer2, Andrew S Jones2 and John Michael Forsythe2, (1)Colorado State University, Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Fort Collins, CO, United States, (2)Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Fort Collins, CO, United States
Correcting oscillatory modes in numerical models using singular spectrum analysis and data assimilation (512721)
Eviatar Bach1, Venkat Krishnamurthy2, A Surjalal Sharma3 and Eugenia Kalnay1, (1)University of Maryland College Park, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD, United States, (2)George Mason University Fairfax, Fairfax, VA, United States, (3)Univ Maryland, College Park, MD, United States
Simultaneous parameter and state estimation by derivative-free optimization of ensemble Kalman filter residuals (519643)
Spence Lunderman, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States, Matthias Morzfeld, University of Arizona, Department of Mathematics, Tucson, AZ, United States and Derek J Posselt, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States
Homotopy Data Assimilation (529267)
Juan M. Restrepo, Oregon State University, Mathematics, Corvallis, OR, United States and Robert Miller, Oregon State Univ, Corvallis, OR, United States
Projecting Hydrologic Modeling Uncertainty across Multiple Basin Scales into Future Climate Periods. (545628)
Scott Pokorny, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada, Tricia Anne Stadnyk, University of Manitoba, Department of Civil Engineering, Winnipeg, MB, Canada; University of Calgary, Department of Geography, Calgary, AB, Canada, Genevieve Ali, University of Guelph, School of Environmental Sciences, Guelph, ON, Canada, Andrew A. G. Tefs, University of Manitoba, Civil Engineering, Winnipeg, MB, Canada, Stephen Déry, University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, BC, Canada and Kristina A Koenig, Manitoba Hydro, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
Representation of model error in convective scale data assimilation (577426)
Tijana Janjic1,2, Yuefei Zeng3, Alberto de Lozar4, Yvonne Ruckstuhl3, Ulrich Blahak4 and Axel Seifert4, (1)Deutscher Wetterdienst Nieder, Offenbach, Germany, (2)Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, Meteorology, Munich, Germany, (3)Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, Munich, Germany, (4)Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Offenbach am Main, Germany
Evaluation of Non-Gaussian Data Assimilation Behaviors in Tropical Storm Chris in 2006 (615501)
Andrew S Jones1, Michael Goodliff2, Steven J Fletcher2, John Michael Forsythe2 and Anton Kliewer2, (1)Colorado State University, Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Fort Collins, CO, United States, (2)Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Fort Collins, CO, United States
Localization on multiple scales using eigenvector estimation (619790)
Travis M Harty, University of Arizona, Program in Applied Mathematics, Tucson, AZ, United States, Chris Snyder, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States and Matthias Morzfeld, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Oakland, CA, United States
Uncertainty Quantification for the Duke Forest Ecosystem Modeling with the Ecosys Model (621262)
Yaning Liu, University of Colorado Denver, Denver, CO, United States, Jinyun Tang, Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Berkeley, CA, United States and William J Riley, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States
Development and Improvements in the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Data Assimilation System (HRRRDAS) (624753)
Therese Thompson Ladwig, CU/CIRES - NOAA/ESRL, Longmont, CO, United States, David Dowell, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, United States, Curtis Alexander, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States and Scientific RAP/HRRR Team at GSD
Local Particle Filter Implemented with Minor Modifications to the LETKF Code (625861)
Shunji Kotsuki, Organization Not Listed, Washington, DC, United States, Takemasa Miyoshi, RIKEN Center for Computational Science, Kobe, Japan, Keiichi Kondo, Meteorological Research Institute, Ibaraki, Japan and Roland Potthast, Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Offenbach am Main, Germany
Efficient Optimal Bayesian Experimental Design of Snow Depth Sensors for Inferring Sea Ice Thickness (631737)
Andrew Davis, Engineer Research and Development Center - US Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, Hanover, NH, United States, Xun Huan, University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, Christopher Mark Polashenski, US Army Cold Regions, Hanover, NH, United States and Youssef Marzouk, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Cambridge, MA, United States
Estimation and correction of systematic Errors in GFS Using Analysis Increments (633010)
Kriti Bhargava1, Eugenia Kalnay2 and James Carton1, (1)University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, United States, (2)University of Maryland College Park, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD, United States
