S029
Real-time earthquake assessment: Earthquake early warning to post-earthquake damage

Session ID#: 74317

Session Description:
Scientific and technological advances in real-time seismology and earthquake early warning mean we are approaching an era when assessments of the impact of an earthquake can be available as an earthquake is progressing and grow increasingly reliable with increasing time as predictive estimates become constrained by observations.

Recent efforts that can critically improve real-time assessment of the impact include advanced signal processing; tracking evolving finite ruptures; applications of machine learning; on-site alarm systems; use of GMPEs and fragility curves for rapid damage assessment; and the integration of less-traditional datasets including smartphones, GPS, felt/damage reports and social network data. With this session, we aim to provide a state-of-the-art overview of the field of earthquake early warning and rapid response systems. We hope to create a forum to share experiences, techniques, perspectives, to identify areas for improvements. We welcome contributions on early warning and rapid response development, both methodological improvements and applications.
Index Terms:

4341 Early warning systems [NATURAL HAZARDS]
7212 Earthquake ground motions and engineering seismology [SEISMOLOGY]
7215 Earthquake source observations [SEISMOLOGY]


Primary Convener:  Richard M Allen, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States
Conveners:  Mitsuyuki Hoshiba, Meteorological Res. Inst./JMA, Tsukuba, Japan, Jimin Lee, Nat. Ins. of Meteo. Res., Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South) and Matteo Picozzi, University of Naples Federico II, Department of Physics, Naples, Italy
Primary Liaison:  Richard M Allen, Univ California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States
 
Opportunities and Challenges for the Delivery of a Continuum of Real-time Earthquake Information Products (Invited) (486496)
David J Wald, USGS National Earthquake Information Center, Golden, CO, United States
 
An establishment of real-time peak ground motions shake map system in Taiwan (492804)
Yih-Min Wu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
 
Retrospective and Real-Time Event-Based Performance of the PLUM Earthquake Early Warning Algorithm for the West Coast, USA (495418)
Deborah Lyman Kilb, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States, Elizabeth S Cochran, Earthquake Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Pasadena, CA, United States, Julian Bunn, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States, Sarah E Minson, US Geological Survey, Earthquake Science Center, Menlo Park, CA, United States, Annemarie Baltay, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, United States, Mitsuyuki Hoshiba, Meteorological Res. Inst./JMA, Tsukuba, Japan and Yuki Kodera, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Ibaraki, Japan
 
Early forecast of long-period ground motions for large earthquakes in the Nankai trough based on data assimilation of observed ground motions and wave propagation simulations (495825)
Oba Atsuki, Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, Takashi Furumura, ERI, Univ. Tokyo, Bunkyo-Ku, Japan and Takuto Maeda, Graduate School of Science and Technology, Hirosaki University, Hirosaki, Japan
 
Applications of Smartphone Seismic Data for Rapid Structural Health Assessment (497486)
Sarina Patel, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States, Qingkai Kong, UC Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States, Selim Gunay, UC Berkeley, Civil Engineering, Berkeley, CA, United States and Richard M Allen, Univ California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States
 
Feasibility analysis and Implementation of a Rapid Moment Tensor Algorithm (GRiD MT) for Earthquake Monitoring and Tsunami Warning at French Tsunami Warning Center (498721)
Aurélie Guilhem Trilla, Aurélien Dupont and Marine Menager, CEA/DAM- ILE DE FRANCE, Arpajon, France
 
Machine Learning based Real-time False-Pick Filter for an On-site Earthquake Early Warning System (500803)
JeongBeom Seo1, Hojun Lee2, Jin Koo Lee2 and Inchan Jeon2, (1)KITValley Co.,Ltd., AI lab., Seoul, South Korea, (2)KITValley Co.,Ltd., Seoul, South Korea
 
On-site Earthquake Early Warning: Predictive Models for Acceleration Response Spectra Including Site-Effects (501364)
Antonio Giovanni Iaccarino, The University of Naples Federico II, Department of Physics, Naples, Italy, Matteo Picozzi, University of Naples Federico II, Department of Physics, Naples, Italy, Dino Bindi, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ, Potsdam, Germany and Daniele Spallarossa, University of Genoa, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra dell'Ambiente e della Vita, Genoa, Italy
 
Estimated Casualty Risk for Disaster Preparation in Five Scenario Great Earthquakes, Sichuan-Yunnan Region, China (505271)
Jiawei Li, IGP Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China, Max Wyss, Wapmerr, Bougy-Villars, Switzerland, Zhongliang Wu, Institute of Earthquake Prediction, CEA, Beijing, China, Shiyong Zhou, ITAG Institute of Theoretical and Applied Geophysics, Peking University, Beijing, China and Changsheng Jiang, Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China
 
Real-Time Performance of the PLUM Earthquake Early Warning Method During the 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence (506783)
Sarah E Minson1, Julian Bunn2, Elizabeth S Cochran3, Deborah Lyman Kilb4, Jessie K Saunders1, Grace Alexandra Parker1, Annemarie Baltay1, Mitsuyuki Hoshiba5 and Yuki Kodera6, (1)U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, United States, (2)California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States, (3)Earthquake Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Pasadena, CA, United States, (4)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States, (5)Meteorological Res. Inst./JMA, Tsukuba, Japan, (6)Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Ibaraki, Japan
 
Early Warning of Long-Period Ground Motion and Experimental Demonstration for Practical Use (509248)
Shin Aoi1, Takeshi Kimura1, Takashi Kunugi1, Wataru Suzuki1, Yadab P Dhakal1, Naoto Koja2 and Teito Takemoto2, (1)National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, Tsukuba, Japan, (2)Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan
 
Earthquake and Tsunami Early Warning from Offshore Geophysical Networks: Design Considerations for the Cascadia Subduction Zone (511552)
David A Schmidt1, William S D Wilcock2, Randall J LeVeque2, Frank I Gonzalez3, Geoff Cram4, Dana Manalang4, Michael Harrington4, Emily C Roland2 and Paul Bodin5, (1)University of Washington, Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Seattle, WA, United States, (2)University of Washington, School of Oceanography, Seattle, WA, United States, (3)University of Washington Seattle Campus, Seattle, WA, United States, (4)University of Washington, Applied Physics Lab, Seattle, WA, United States, (5)University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
 
From Earthquake Early Warning to Rapid Response: an Integrated, Evolutionary Approach to Improve the Alert Reliability and Robustness (512136)
Aldo Zollo1, Simona Colombelli2, Matteo Picozzi1, Caruso Alessandro1, Luca Elia1 and RISSC-Lab Seismic Early Warning Team, (1)University of Naples Federico II, Department of Physics, Naples, Italy, (2)The University of Naples Federico II, Department of Physics, Naples, Italy
 
Near-real-time matched-filtering for the development of dense earthquake catalogs during sequences of seismicity (513199)
Calum John Chamberlain, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand, John Townend, Victoria University Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand and Matt Gerstenberger, GNS Science-Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences Ltd, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
 
P-wave based extended source models for Earthquake Early Warning applications (515216)
Antonio Scala, Simona Colombelli, Sahar Nazeri, Stefania Tarantino, Antonio Emolo, Gaetano Festa and Aldo Zollo, The University of Naples Federico II, Department of Physics, Naples, Italy
 
Develop an On-Site Earthquake Early Warning System by Using Machine Learning Method (516419)
DaYi Chen, Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan, Taipei, Taiwan
 
Applying True Source Depth to ShakeAlert Algorithms in Subduction Zones (517859)
Mika Thompson, University of Washington Seattle Campus, Earth and Space Sciences, Seattle, WA, United States, J Renate Hartog, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States and Erin Wirth, USGS, Seattle, WA, United States
 
Towards Global Earthquake Early Warning with the MyShake Smartphone Seismic Network (520075)
Robert Martin-Short, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States, Qingkai Kong, UC Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States and Richard M Allen, Univ California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States
 
An advanced tool for a refined earthquake early warning system: methodology, alert decision scheme and application performance (521250)
Simona Colombelli1,2, Aldo Zollo3, Caruso Alessandro3 and Luca Elia3, (1)The University of Naples Federico II, Physics, Naples, Italy, (2)Organization Not Listed, Naples, Italy, (3)University of Naples Federico II, Department of Physics, Naples, Italy
 
Estimation of earthquake magnitude and source parameters by using evolution of P-wave for Chinese strong motion data (524227)
Yuan Wang, Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration, Harbin, China, Simona Colombelli, The University of Naples Federico II, Department of Physics, Naples, Italy and Aldo Zollo, University of Naples Federico II, Department of Physics, Naples, Italy
 
Evaluation of automatic hypocenter determination (PF method) for dense ocean bottom seismograph networks (526422)
Koji Tamaribuchi1, Yuriko Iwasaki2, Kazuhiro Iwakiri2 and Hiroshi Ueno2, (1)Meteorological Research Institute, Ibaraki, Japan, (2)Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan
 
Insights on the source characteristics of Japanese earthquakes from source models developed from teleseismic and strong-motion records (533478)
Avigyan Chatterjee, Swapnil Mache and Kusala Rajendran, Indian Institute of Science, Centre for Earth Sciences, Bangalore, India
 
Fully convolutional network for P-wave arrival detection and time picking using strong-motion data in China (534051)
Jindong Song, Baorui Hou, Shanyou Li and Yuan Wang, Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration, Harbin, China
 
An analysis of source models and ground motion predictions from ShakeAlert geodetic and seismic algorithms for the Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest, CA Earthquake (542794)
Brendan Crowell1, Mario A Aranha2, Deborah Smith3, Jeffrey Joseph McGuire3, Jessica R Murray4, Angela I Chung2, Noel M Bartlow2, Sarah E Minson4, Christine J Ruhl5, Claude Felizardo6, Benjamin A. Brooks3, Victor C. Kress7, Paul A Friberg8 and Mike Hagerty9, (1)University of Washington, Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Seattle, WA, United States, (2)University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States, (3)US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, United States, (4)US Geological Survey, Earthquake Science Center, Menlo Park, CA, United States, (5)University of Tulsa, Department of Geosciences, Tulsa, OK, United States, (6)California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States, (7)University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States, (8)Instrumental Software Technologies, Inc. (ISTI), New Paltz, NY, United States, (9)Instrumental Software Technologies, Inc., Saratoga Springs, NY, United States
 
Failure to alert? Exploring perceptions of ShakeAlert during the 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence (Invited) (549046)
Sara McBride1, Jeannette Sutton2, Michele Marie Wood3, Lori Peek4, Robert M DeGroot5, Andrea L Llenos6, Grace Alexandra Parker7, Danielle F Sumy5, Douglas D Given8, Pascal Schuback9, Ryan Arba10, Rachel Sierer-Wooden10, Emily Holland10, Holly Porter11, Candice Hadley11, Darius Fattahipour11, Alex Bell12 and Gabe Kearney13, (1)U.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Science Center, Kennewick, United States, (2)University of Kentucky, Department of Communication, Lexington, KY, United States, (3)California State University Fullerton, Fullerton, CA, United States, (4)University of Colorado Boulder, Sociology and Natural Hazards Center, Boulder, CO, United States, (5)University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (6)USGS California Water Science Center Menlo Park, Menlo Park, CA, United States, (7)University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (8)USGS, Pasadena, CA, United States, (9)Cascadia Region Earthquake Workgroup, Seattle, United States, (10)California Office of Emergency Services, Sacramento, United States, (11)San Diego Office of Emergency Services, San Diego, United States, (12)San Diego County of Emergency Services, San Diego, United States, (13)California Office of Emergency Services, Sacremento, United States
 
A new approach in earthquake early warning system by prompt elastogravity signals (552925)
Jean-Paul Montagner1, Kévin Juhel2, Jean-Paul Ampuero3, Matteo Barsuglia4, Pascal Bernard2, Giovanni Losurdo5 and Martin Vallée2, (1)University de Paris, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Paris, France, (2)Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Paris, France, (3)Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, IRD, OCA, Géoazur, Valbonne, France, (4)Université Paris Diderot, APC, Paris, France, (5)INFN Pisa, Pisa, Italy
 
A relationship between back-azimuth estimation accuracy for earthquake early warning and seismometers site environment (557366)
Naoyasu Iwata, Katsutomo Niwa Sr. and Shunroku Yamamoto, Railway Technical Research Institute, Center for Railway Earthquake Engineering Research, Kokubunji, Japan
 
Investigation of On-Site Earthquake Early Warning for the Threshold of P-Wave, using an Amplitude Ratio of S-Wave to P-Wave (561327)
Seiji Tsuno, RTRI Railway Technical Research Institute, Kokubunji, Japan and Hiroyuki Miyakoshi, East Japan Railway Company, Saitama, Saitama, Japan
 
Comparison of Earthquake Early Warning Test using local earthquake data (563138)
Seongheum Cho1, Jimin Lee2, Yungseok Yu2, Jae-Kwang Ahn2, Eui-Hong Hwang2 and Duk Kee Lee2, (1)KMA Korea Meteorlogical Administration, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South), (2)KMA Korea Meteorlogical Administration, Seoul, South Korea
 
The 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake in California: should the earthquake early warning system send an alert in LA? (568298)
Masumi Yamada, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan and Ryota Kiuchi, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
 
 
Real-time inversion of earthquake source rupture process with strong motion and high-rate GPS data (573819)
Guisen Wen, School of Geodesy and Geomatics, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China, Yong Zhang, Peking University, Beijing, China, Xingxing Li, Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany and Xujun Zheng, ITAG Institute of Theoretical and Applied Geophysics, Peking University, Beijing, China
 
Incorporating fault maturity-related earthquake slip characteristics into final rupture length determination for Earthquake Early Warning (574464)
Alexandra A Hutchison, IFSTTAR Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux, Laboratoire Séismes et Vibrations, Bouguenais Cedex, France; ETH Zurich, Earth Sciences, Zurich, Switzerland, Maren Böse, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, Frederick Massin, SED, Swiss Seismological Service, Zurich, Switzerland and Isabelle Manighetti, GEOAZUR-OCA, Sophia Antipolis, France
 
Harnessing Rupture Determinism for Early Warning with GNSS and Recurrent Neural Networks (575418)
Jiun-Ting Lin1, Diego Melgar1, Amanda Thomas1 and Jake Searcy2, (1)University of Oregon, Department of Earth Sciences, Eugene, OR, United States, (2)University of Oregon, Research Advanced Computing Services, Eugene, United States
 
Automatic seismic station assessment in real-time with Deep Learning (575684)
SeongJin Kim1, Keun Joo Seo2, Hyeji Lee3 and Dong-Hoon Sheen1, (1)Chonnam National University, Gwangju, Korea, Republic of (South), (2)KEPCO Research Institiute, Daejeon, South Korea, (3)Chonnam National University, Gwangju, South Korea
 
Radiated Energy from Shallow Earthquakes around Japan: Improving Near-field Determinations for Rapid Response (583023)
Louisa Barama, Georgia Tech Research Institute, Geophysics, Atlanta, GA, United States and Andrew Vern Newman, Georgia Tech, Atlanta, GA, United States
 
How Fast Can We Reliably Estimate the Magnitude of Subduction Earthquakes? (590852)
Felipe Leyton1, Sergio Ruiz2, Juan CARLOS Baez Sr1 and Raul I Madariaga3, (1)University of Chile, Santiago, Chile, (2)Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile, (3)Ecole Normale Supérieure Paris, Paris, France
 
25-Second Determination of 2019 M7.1 Ridgecrest Earthquake Coseismic Deformation from Global GNSS Seismic Monitoring (593743)
Timothy Ian Melbourne1, Walter Michael Szeliga1, Victor M Santillan2 and Craig W Scrivner1, (1)Central Washington University, Ellensburg, WA, United States, (2)Central Washington Univ, Ellensburg, WA, United States
 
Initial Implementation and Performance of a Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquake Early Warning System for British Columbia (602191)
Degnan Hembroff1, Joseph James Farrugia1, Angela Schlesinger2, Nadia Kreimer1 and Ian Kulin1, (1)Ocean Networks Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada, (2)University Of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada
 
Liquefaction Loss Estimation in the United States (604032)
Alexander Chansky and Laurie G Baise, Tufts University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Medford, MA, United States
 
Integrated geodetic system for rapid estimation of earthquake moment magnitude, with GNSS observation (607137)
Juan CARLOS Baez Sr1, Francisco DelCampo Sr.2, David Pineda Sr.3,4, Felipe Leyton1 and Sergio Ruiz5, (1)University of Chile, Santiago, Chile, (2)Universidad de Chile, Centro Sismológico Nacional, Santiago, Chile, (3)Lembang, Indonesia, (4)University of Chile, Nacional Seismological Center, Santiago, Chile, (5)Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
 
Application of maximum likelihood method to event association (610579)
Dong-Hoon Sheen, Chonnam National University, Gwangju, Korea, Republic of (South) and Paul A Friberg, Instrumental Software Technologies, Inc. (ISTI), New Paltz, NY, United States
 
Incorporating the Network of the Americas (NOTA) GNSS Network into ShakeAlert (615005)
Kenneth Emil Austin1, Doerte Mann2, Adam C Woolace3, Christian P Walls4, Karl Feaux3, Glen S Mattioli5, Stephen T Dittmann6, James Downing7, Kathleen Marian Hodgkinson8 and Warren W Gallaher1, (1)UNAVCO, Inc., Boulder, CO, United States, (2)UNAVCO, Inc. Boulder, Boulder, CA, United States, (3)UNAVCO, Inc. Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)UNAVCO, Inc. Forestville, Forestville, CA, United States, (5)Universidad Nacional, Autónoma de México, Departamento de Geomagnetismo y Exploración, Instituto de Geofísica, Mexico, DF, Mexico, (6)UNAVCO, Boulder, CO, United States, (7)UNAVCO, Inc. Boulder, Boulder, United States, (8)UNAVCO, Socorro, NM, United States
 
Rapid Finite-Fault Determination from Pre-calculated Spatial Patterns of Peak Ground Acceleration for Potential Subduction Related Earthquakes in the Pacific Northwest (615993)
J Renate Hartog, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States, Jennifer Rebecca Andrews, California Institute of Technology, GPS, Pasadena, CA, United States and Maren Böse, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
 
Implementation of Real-Time Strainmeter Data Flow across NOTA and its Use for Rapid Earthquake Magnitude Estimation from Dynamic Strain Observations (618293)
Michael H Gottlieb1, Kathleen Marian Hodgkinson2, David Mencin1, Wade Johnson3, Elizabeth Van Boskirk1, Chad Pyatt1 and Glen S Mattioli4, (1)UNAVCO, Inc., Boulder, CO, United States, (2)UNAVCO, Socorro, NM, United States, (3)UNAVCO, Inc. Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)UNAVCO, Inc., Boulder, United States
 
Improving estimates of the likelihood of seismically induced landslides in near real-time (618439)
Martha Anna Nowicki Jessee1, Elizabeth M Sherrill2, Michael W Hamburger3, Kate Allstadt4, Eric Thompson4, Mike G Hearne4 and David J Wald5, (1)Indiana University Purdue University Indianapolis, Indianapolis, IN, United States, (2)Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, United States, (3)Indiana University Bloomington, Earth & Atmospheric Sciences, Bloomington, IN, United States, (4)USGS Geologic Hazards Science Center, Golden, CO, United States, (5)USGS National Earthquake Information Center, Golden, CO, United States
 
Performance of the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System During the Ridgecrest Sequence (618634)
Angela I Chung1, Deborah Smith2, Jennifer Rebecca Andrews3, Maren Böse4, Jeffrey Joseph McGuire2, Men-Andrin Meier5, Igor Stubailo6 and Richard M Allen7, (1)Berkeley Seismological Lab, Berkeley, CA, United States, (2)US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, United States, (3)California Institute of Technology, GPS, Pasadena, CA, United States, (4)ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, (5)California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States, (6)Caltech Seismo Lab, Pasadena, CA, United States, (7)Univ California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States
 
Application of single station methods using Korea Train eXpress waveforms to earthquake early warning (623346)
Seula Jung1, Jung-ho Park2, Yun-Jeong Seong2, Soo Jung Han3 and Dong-Hoon Sheen4, (1)Korea Institute of Geosience and Mineral Resources, Daejeon, South Korea, (2)KIGAM Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources, Daejeon, South Korea, (3)Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea, (4)Chonnam National University, Gwangju, Korea, Republic of (South)
 
Informed Decision-Making In The Chaos Of Earthquakes – A Case Study For Hospitals (627278)
Mathias Franke, Mauricio Ciudad-Real, Derek A Skolnik and Brandon Parrott, Kinemetrics, Inc., Open Systems & Services, Pasadena, CA, United States
 
Automated Determination of Magnitude and Source Length of Large Earthquakes Using Dense Arrays (631444)
Dun Wang, China University of Geosciences Wuhan, Wuhan, China and Qiang Yao Mr., China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, School of Earth Sciences, Wuhan, China
 
Investigation of GNSS Time-Difference Carrier-Phase and Accelerometers for Real-Time Magnitude Estimation of Large Magnitude Earthquakes (633138)
Paul R Passmore1, Ronnie Van Dommelmen2 and Mitchell MacInnis2, (1)Retired, Washington, DC, United States, (2)Xeos Technologies Inc, Dartmouth, NS, Canada
 
Near Real-Time Earthquake Damage Assessment in Critical Infrastructure: Istanbul’s Water, Natural Gas and Electric Power Networks (635243)
Ufuk Hancilar1, Eser Cakti1, Karin Sesetyan1, Goktekin Durusoy2 and Erdal Safak1, (1)Bogazici University, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Dept. of Earthquake Engineering, Istanbul, Turkey, (2)Bogazici University, Electrical & Electronics Engineering, Istanbul, Turkey
See more of: Seismology