GC021
Connecting cause and effect in data-driven analyses of coupled human and geophysical systems
Session ID#: 74571
Session Description:
Causal inference describes the complicated task of evaluating how an outcome responds to changes in a specific driver or cause. Distinguishing causal relationships from mere statistical associations in coupled human and geophysical systems is particularly challenging because of system complexity, feedbacks, missing data, spatial and temporal scale mismatches in data, and the need to explicitly include anthropogenic influences. Yet, these challenges must be overcome to advance both science and policy. This session will highlight geophysical systems research that incorporates designs for causal inference from observational (non-experimental) data, as well as model-based analyses focused on evaluating causal relationships using observational data. We welcome submissions that include applications of designs from different disciplines, including econometrics, statistics, and computer science. The session aims to bring together researchers across disciplines who have interests in modern methods and designs for causal inference, and we welcome contributions representing interdisciplinary approaches from physical, ecological, and social sciences.
Index Terms:
1630 Impacts of global change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1694 Instruments and techniques [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1803 Anthropogenic effects [HYDROLOGY]
1968 Scientific reasoning/inference [INFORMATICS]
Primary Convener: Morgan C Levy, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States
Conveners: Marc Muller, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, United States, Megan Konar, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Urbana, IL, United States and Paul Ferraro, Johns Hopkins University, Balitmore, United States
Primary Liaison: Morgan C Levy, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States
A counterfactual approach to causal assessment of the Ganges water agreement (496282)
Gopal Penny1, Shahjahan Mondal2, Subir Biswas2, Diogo Bolster3, Jennifer Leah Tank3 and Marc Muller3, (1)University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States, (2)Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka, Bangladesh, (3)University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, United States
Trade openness and climate shocks in agriculture (498523)
Megan Konar1, Nicole D Jackson1, Peter Debaere2 and Justin Sheffield3, (1)University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Urbana, IL, United States, (2)University of Virginia Main Campus, Charlottesville, VA, United States, (3)Princeton Climate Analytics, Princeton, NJ, United States
Data-driven causal mapping in coupled human-hydrologic systems: The Case of Stormwater Treatment Areas in the Florida Everglades (502807)
Ray Huffaker, University of Florida, Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, Ft Walton Beach, FL, United States, Miles Medina, University of Florida, Ft Walton Beach, FL, United States, James W Jawitz, University of Florida, Soil and Water Sciences, Gainesville, FL, United States and Rafael Munoz-Carpena, University of Florida (Visiting Professor at Public University of Navarra, Spain), Agricultural and Biological Engineering, Gainesville, FL, United States
A Behavioral Study on Social Feedbacks to Address Deterioration in Public Water Services (568547)
David J. Yu1, Hoon C. Shin2, Peyman Yousefi3, Samuel Park3 and Marco Janssen4, (1)Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, United States, (2)Arizona State University, School of Human Evolution & Social Change, Tempe, AZ, United States, (3)Purdue University, Civil Engineering, West Lafayette, IN, United States, (4)Arizona State University, Sustainability, Tempe, AZ, United States
Survivor bias and the groundwater recovery paradox in South India (605999)
Tejasvi Hora, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada, Veena Srinivasan, Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment, Bangalore, India and Nandita B Basu, University of Waterloo, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Waterloo, ON, Canada
Highway Expansion in the SW Amazon Increases System Feedback: a Regional Causality Analysis of Biophysical and Vegetation Variables (613132)
Geraldine Klarenberg, University of Florida, School of Forest Resources and Conservation, Gainesville, FL, United States, Rafael Munoz-Carpena, University of Florida (Visiting Professor at Public University of Navarra, Spain), Agricultural and Biological Engineering, Gainesville, FL, United States, Miles Medina, University of Florida, Ft Walton Beach, FL, United States and Ray Huffaker, University of Florida, Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, Ft Walton Beach, FL, United States
Impacts of the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard -- Linking Policy, Economics, and Environmental Outcomes (620628)
Tyler J Lark1, Nathan Hendricks2, Nicholas Pates3, Aaron Smith4, Seth Spawn5, Matthew Bougie6, Eric Booth1, Christopher J Kucharik7 and Holly Gibbs8, (1)University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI, United States, (2)Kansas State University, Agricultural Economics, Manhattan, KS, United States, (3)University of Kentucky, Lexington, United States, (4)University of California Davis, Agricultural and Resource Economics, Davis, CA, United States, (5)University of Wisconsin Madison, Geography, Madison, WI, United States, (6)University of Wisconsin Madison, Nelson Institute Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, Madison, WI, United States, (7)Univ Wisconsin Madison, Department of Agronomy, Madison, WI, United States, (8)University of Wisconsin Madison, Department of Geography; Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE), Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, Madison, WI, United States
