GC087
Uncertainty in Recent and Future Sea-Level Change
Session ID#: 76965
Session Description:
Estimates of recent sea-level rise and projections of future change are subject to considerable uncertainty, associated with gaps in observations, an imperfect understanding of earth system processes, and internal variability in the Earth system. Robust estimates and projections of sea level are critical for stakeholders and communities developing strategies to adapt to ongoing changes and mitigate future risks. This session focuses on understanding the sources of uncertainty in estimates of sea-level rise during the instrumental era and in projections of future sea-level change. We invite contributions that use statistical, computational, mathematical, or observational approaches to understand, quantify, or decrease uncertainties in estimates and projections of sea-level change at local, regional or global scales, and associated with processes in the ocean, cryosphere, solid Earth, atmosphere, and/or on land. We especially encourage contributions that explore new methods for reconstructing 20th century sea-level change and probabilistic projections of future sea-level change.
Co-Organized:
Index Terms:
0798 Modeling [CRYOSPHERE]
1621 Cryospheric change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1641 Sea level change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
6309 Decision making under uncertainty [POLICY SCIENCES & PUBLIC ISSUES]
Primary Convener: Alexander Robel, Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, Atlanta, GA, United States
Conveners: Erica Ashe, Rutgers University New Brunswick, New Brunswick, NJ, United States and Aimee Slangen, Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Den Burg, Netherlands
Primary Liaison: Alexander Robel, Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, Atlanta, GA, United States
Low-end probabilistic sea-level projections (489438)
Goneri Le Cozannet1, Remi Thieblemont1, Jeremy Rohmer1, Déborah Idier1, Jean-Charles Manceau2 and Robin Quique1, (1)BRGM, Orléans, France, (2)BRGM, Orleans, France
A revised acceleration rate from the altimetry-derived global mean sea level record. (491418)
Riccardo Riva, Delft University of Technology, Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Delft, Netherlands, Marcel Kleinherenbrink, Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands and Remko Scharroo, EUMETSAT, Darmstadt, Germany
Interpretation and Analysis of Projected Ice Sheet Contributions from a Structured Expert Judgement (496897)
Jonathan L Bamber, University of Bristol, School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol, BS8, United Kingdom, Michael Oppenheimer, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton, NJ, United States, Robert E Kopp, Rutgers University New Brunswick, Institute of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, New Brunswick, NJ, United States, Willy Aspinall, Organization Not Listed, Washington, DC, United States and Roger marvin Cooke, Resources for the Future, Washington, DC, United States
Bedrock topography requirements for reducing uncertainties in ice sheet model projections of century-scale Antarctic sea level contribution (528256)
Nicole Schlegel1, Eric Y Larour2, Helene L Seroussi1, Ala Khazendar1, Lambert Caron2, Mathieu Morlighem3 and Michael Schodlok4, (1)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States, (2)Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States, (3)University of California - Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States, (4)University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States
Probabilistic projections for timing of global sea-level thresholds (530607)
Tony E Wong, Rochester Institute of Technology, School of Mathematical Sciences, Rochester, NY, United States, Vivek Srikrishnan, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, University Park, PA, United States and Benjamin Aaron Vega-Westhoff, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Urbana, IL, United States
Examining the Dynamic Sea Level Response to Surface Buoyancy and Momentum Flux Perturbations (534942)
Alexander Todd, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom, Laure Zanna, University of Oxford, Dept. of Physics, Oxford, United Kingdom and Jonathan M Gregory, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Likely and High-End Impacts of Regional Sea-Level Rise on European Sandy Coasts under Business as Usual Greenhouse Gas Emissions (535415)
Remi Thieblemont1, Goneri Le Cozannet1, Alexandra Toimil2, Benoit Meyssignac3, Melisa Menendez4 and Iñigo J. Losada2, (1)BRGM, Orléans, France, (2)Environmental Hydraulics Institute, Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain, (3)Observatory Midi-Pyrenees, Toulouse, France, (4)IH Cantabria, Santander, Spain
Uncertainty and ambiguity in future mean and extreme sea-level change (541966)
Robert E Kopp1, Gregory George Garner1, Daniel Gilford1, Michael Oppenheimer2 and DJ Rasmussen3, (1)Rutgers University New Brunswick, Institute of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, New Brunswick, NJ, United States, (2)Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton, NJ, United States, (3)Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, New Jersey, United States
Modeling the Greenland Ice Sheet’s Committed Contribution to Sea Level Rise During the 21st Century (551696)
Isabel Nias, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, Sophie Nowicki, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States and Denis Felikson, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, United States
Using Gaussian Process Emulators to Reduce Uncertainty in Sea Level Projections with Ice Sheet Models (559071)
Rachel Chen, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, United States, Andy Aschwanden, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States and Douglas Brinkerhoff, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, United States
Revisiting the contemporary sea level budget in light of land mass changes and ocean heat uptake. (564927)
Thomas Frederikse, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States, Maria Zita Hakuba, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, United States; Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, United States and Felix W Landerer, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States
Extrapolating Satellite Data Records for Short-Term Regional Sea Level Projections: Understanding the contributions of forcing agents (566160)
R Steven Nerem, Univ of CO-Aerospace Egrg Sci, Boulder, CO, United States, John Fasullo, NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States, Benjamin Hamlington, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, Surendra Adhikari, California Institute of Technology, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States and Thomas Harvey, University of Colorado at Boulder, Aerospace Engineering Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States
Missing Hydrological Contribution to Sea Level Rise (568339)
Jae-Seung Kim1, Ki-Weon Seo1, Taehwan Jeon1, Jianli Chen2 and Clark R Wilson3, (1)Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South), (2)Center for Space Research, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, United States, (3)Department of geological sciences, Austin, TX, United States
Analysis of dynamic sea level projections and uncertainties in CMIP6 models (569158)
Xuebin Zhang, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), Hobart, TAS, Australia, Kewei Lyu, CSIRO, Oceans & Atmosphere, Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), Hobart, TAS, Australia and John Church, Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
20th Century Trivariate Indian Ocean Regional Sea Level Reconstruction (594719)
Praveen Kumar, Center for Coastal Physical Oceanography, Norfolk, VA, United States, Benjamin Hamlington, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, Se-Hyeon Cheon, Menlo Park, CA, United States, Philip R Thompson, JIMAR, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, United States and Weiqing Han, Univ of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States
What is the role of climate sensitivity in extreme sea-level rise scenarios? (609526)
Benjamin Aaron Vega-Westhoff, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Urbana, IL, United States, Ryan L Sriver, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, United States, Corinne Hartin, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, United States, Tony E Wong, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States and Klaus Keller, Pennsylvania State University, Geosciences, University Park, PA, United States
Antarctic Mass Balance and High-end Cases: Status and Future Prospects for Guidance on Sea-level (612947)
Thomas S James1, Catherine Margaret Isabelle Robin2, Joseph Alan Henton3, Michael Craymer2, Donald L Forbes4, Don Lemmen2 and John Sommerville5, (1)Geological Survey of Canada Sidney, Sidney, BC, Canada, (2)Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada, (3)Natural Resources Canada, Sidney, BC, Canada, (4)Geological Survey of Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Dartmouth, NS, Canada, (5)Natural Resources Canada, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Division, Ottawa, Canada
Reconstruction of 36-Year Measurement-Based Sea Level Fingerprints from Land-Ice Mass Changes (625013)
Zhuoya He1, Isabella Velicogna1,2, Enrico Ciraci1, Chia-Wei Hsu3, Yara Mohajerani1, Eric J Rignot1,2 and Jeremie Mouginot1, (1)University of California Irvine, Department of Earth System Science, Irvine, CA, United States, (2)Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States, (3)University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States
21st century estimates of volume and mass loss rates from glaciers using a GRACE constrained mass balance model under climate emission scenarios (631875)
Lavanya Ashokkumar1, Christopher Harig2 and Marcus Lofverstrom1, (1)University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States, (2)University of Arizona, Department of Geosciences, Tucson, AZ, United States
