GC085
Towards an Assessment of Global Change Impacts that Better Accounts for Extreme Events

Session ID#: 78546

Session Description:
Policy relevant global change science seeks to couple physical changes and human and natural system changes in an integrated view of the consequences, risks and costs of future alternative emission pathways, in order to better characterize the impacts of climate change and the benefits of mitigation. Models quantifying future impacts are just starting to reckon with the need of including the effects of extreme events, which cause more damages and are changing more rapidly than mean quantities in many cases.

In this session we seek contributions from studies that are quantifying the effects of extreme events on human and natural systems, either through econometric or process models. Our focus is on the quantification aspects, as we hope to make progress towards the inclusion of extreme events into economic and other integrated modeling systems, like IAMs,  thus facilitating more complete analyses of future scenarios in the context of societal development.

Index Terms:

1627 Coupled models of the climate system [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1630 Impacts of global change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
4313 Extreme events [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4321 Climate impact [NATURAL HAZARDS]


Primary Convener:  Claudia Tebaldi, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, United States
Conveners:  Sonia I Seneviratne, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland and Katherine V Calvin, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States
Primary Liaison:  Claudia Tebaldi, Climate Central, Princeton, NJ, United States
 
Importance of Framing for Extreme Event Attribution: the Role of Spatial and Temporal Scales (499021)
Hui Wan, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Science and Technology, Toronto, ON, Canada, Megan Kirchmeier-Young, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Canada, Xuebin Zhang, Environment Canada Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada and Sonia I Seneviratne, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland
 
How Likely is an El Niño to Break Global Mean Surface Temperature Record during the 21st Century? (510459)
Chia-Wei Hsu, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States and Jianjun Yin, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States
 
Impacts on winter wheat yield in Germany at 1.5°, 2°, and 3° global warming (515670)
Michael Peichl, Stephan Thober, Luis Samaniego and Andreas Marx, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Computational Hydrosystems, Leipzig, Germany
 
Estimating the contribution of historical precipitation changes to increasing flooding damages in the United States (524781)
Frances V Davenport1, Marshall Burke2 and Noah S Diffenbaugh1, (1)Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States, (2)Stanford University, Earth System Science, Stanford, CA, United States
 
Economic impacts of future glacier decline in the Indus River Basin (544557)
Simon Parkinson1, Adriano Vinca1, Ansir Ilyas2, Muhammad Awais3, Edward Byers1 and Keywan Riahi1, (1)IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, (2)Lahore University of Management Sciences, Lahore, Pakistan, (3)TU Dresden, Hydroscience and Engineering, Dresden, Germany
 
Excess Heat Factor and heated-related deaths in U.S. (625962)
Junya Wu and Anji Seth, University of Connecticut, Groton, CT, United States
 
Increasing the Resilience of Indian Agriculture to Intra-seasonal Monsoon Variability Through Optimized Irrigation Strategies (630549)
Balsher Singh Sidhu1,2, Milind Kandlikar1,2 and Navin Ramankutty1,2, (1)University of British Columbia, IRES, Vancouver, BC, Canada, (2)University of British Columbia, SPPGA, Vancouver, BC, Canada