A003
Advances and Challenges for Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction
Session ID#: 77076
Session Description:
Sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts span the gap between weather and seasonal predictions and can provide early warning of high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, floods, and heat waves. S2S forecasting is now operational at many national meteorological centers, but model errors continue to limit predictive skill and there are outstanding scientific questions regarding mechanisms of S2S variability and sources of predictability. Contributions are solicited on all aspects of understanding S2S variability and predictability and on modelling advances for producing more skilful forecasts. This includes the role of the MJO, weather regime transitions and teleconnections, coupling with the stratosphere, and land processes; observational needs for process studies, verification and initialization; ensemble methods and coupled assimilation; and causes and impacts of systematic model errors. Contributions are encouraged that make use of the WWRP/WCRP-S2S and SubX databases.
Co-Sponsor(s):
Index Terms:
0550 Model verification and validation [COMPUTATIONAL GEOPHYSICS]
3305 Climate change and variability [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3337 Global climate models [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3362 Stratosphere/troposphere interactions [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
Primary Convener: Harry Hendon, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
Conveners: Ben P Kirtman, University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Miami, FL, United States, Amy H Butler, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States and Duane Edward Waliser, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States
Primary Liaison: Harry Hendon, CAWCR, Melbourne, Australia
The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX): A Multi-Model Subseasonal Prediction Experiment (Invited) (486753)
Emily J Becker, NOAA College Park, College Park, MD, United States, Kathleen Pegion, CIRES/University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States, Ben P Kirtman, University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Miami, FL, United States, Dan C Collins, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States and Emerson Lajoie, Climate Prediction Center College Park, College Park, MD, United States
Warm Season Forecast Experiments with Different Treatments on Ground Water and Evaporative Parameterizations in the NCEP Coupled Forecast System (493001)
Rongqian Yang, National Centers For Environmental Prediction-Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD, United States, Michael B Ek, RAL, NCAR, Boulder, United States, Fei Chen, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO, United States, Michael J Barlage, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, Zong-Liang Yang, Univ Texas Austin, Austin, TX, United States and John S Kain, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, OK, United States
Applying Machine Learning to Improve Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Forecasts (496786)
Judah Levi Cohen1, Lester Mackey2, Paulo Orenstein3, Jessica Hwang3, Karl Pfeiffer4 and Sonja Totz5, (1)Atmospheric and Environmental Research Lexington, Lexington, MA, United States, (2)Microsoft Corporation, Research, Cambridge, MA, United States, (3)Stanford University, Statistics, Stanford, CA, United States, (4)Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Lexington, United States, (5)Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Dependence of Hurricane Track Forecasts on the Spectral Representation of Cumulus Convection (496795)
Anning Cheng, NOAA College Park, College Park, MD, United States, Shrinivas Moorthi, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD, United States, John S Kain, National Weather Center, College Park, MD, United States and David A Randall, Colorado State University, Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, CO, United States
The Corresponding Tropospheric Environments during Downward-extending and Nondownward-extending Events of Stratospheric Northern Annular Mode Anomalies (501328)
Wenshou Tian1, Ruhua Zhang1, Jiankai Zhang1, Jinlong Huang1, Fei Xie2 and Mian Xu1, (1)Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China, (2)Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
Precipitation Prediction Skill for the West Coast United States: From Short to Extended Range (504568)
Baoxiang Pan, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Atmospheric, Earth, & Energy Science Division, Livermore, CA, United States, Kuo-lin Hsu, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States, Amir AghaKouchak, University of California, Irvine, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Irvine, CA, United States, Soroosh Sorooshian, Univ California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States and Wayne Higgins, NOAA, Climate Program Office, Silver Spring, DC, United States
Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Hindcasts of the 2016 Disruption of the Stratospheric Quasi-biennial Oscillation (504770)
Shingo Watanabe, JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa, Japan, Yoshio Kawatani, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan, Kevin Peardon Hamilton, IPRC/Univ Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, United States and Scott M Osprey, Oxford University, Department of Physics, AOPP, Oxford, United Kingdom
Ridging associated with drought across the Western United States: S2S predictability sources and model skill (506416)
Peter Bernard Gibson1, Duane Edward Waliser1, Bin Guan2, Mike DeFlorio3, F Martin Ralph3 and Daniel L Swain4,5, (1)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States, (2)University of California, Los Angeles, Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (3)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, La Jolla, CA, United States, (4)University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (5)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States
North American Heat Wave Predictability: Skill Attribution and Land Surface Initialization in Medium-Range Forecast Models (506590)
Chi Fai Wong, Southern Illinois University Carbondale, Geography and Environmental Resources, Carbondale, IL, United States and Trent Ford, Southern Illinois University, Geography and Environmental Resources, Carbondale, IL, United States
Tropical cyclone activity prediction on subseasonal time-scales (510103)
Suzana J Camargo1, Chia-Ying Lee1, Frederic Vitart2, Adam H Sobel3,4, Michael Tippett3, Shuguang Wang3 and Joanne Camp5, (1)Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States, (2)ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom, (3)Columbia University, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, NY, United States, (4)Columbia University, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, New York, NY, United States, (5)UK Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
Impact of snow initialization in subseasonal-to-seasonal winter forecasts with the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (511187)
Fei Li, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway, Yvan Orsolini, Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Kjeller, Norway, Noel Keenlyside, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre, Bergen, Norway, Maolin Shen, Uinverisity of Bergen, Bergen, Norway, Francois Counillon, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre, Bergen, Norway and Yiguo Wang, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway
Verification and Improvement of the Capability of ENSEMBLES to Predict the Winter Arctic Oscillation (527910)
Dapeng Zhang, 1. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China, Yanyan Huang, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing, China and Bo Sun, NUIST Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
A Priori Identification of Skillful Extratropical Subseasonal Forecasts (569529)
John Albers, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences - CU Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; NOAA ESRL-PSD, Boulder, CO, United States and Matthew Newman, University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO, United States
Tropical dry season climatic patterns, teleconnections and implications for agricultural risk and productivity. (576336)
Jaclyn Brown, Hobart, TAS, Australia, Mandy Freund, CSIRO, Sandy Bay, TAS, Australia and Andrew Marshall, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Hobart, Australia
Seasonal Prediction of the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Improved Estimate of Predictability (580082)
Anupam Hazra1, Subodh Kumar Saha1, Samir Pokhrel1, Hemantkumar S Chaudhari1, Sujith K1, Archana Rai1, Hasibur Rahaman2 and Bhupendra Nath Goswami3, (1)Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India, (2)INCOIS,Ocean Valley, Hyderabad, India, (3)Cotton college State University, Physics, Guwahati, India
Understanding the role of the extratropical stratospheric circulation in subseasonal prediction of surface temperature within a multiple linear regression framework (582949)
Laura Ciasto, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States, Daniel S Harnos, Climate Prediction Center/NCEP, College Park, MD, United States and Michelle L L'Heureux, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, College Park, MD, United States
Assessing predictability and prediction skills of the MJO in the S2S ECMWF Reforecast (595387)
Yuanwen Zhang1,2, Shuyi S Chen3 and Li Chongyin1, (1)State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of sciences, Beijing, China, (2)University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China, (3)University of Washington, Atmospheric Science, Seattle, WA, United States
QBO/Solar Modulation of the Boreal Winter MJO: Observational Tests Through the 2018/2019 Winter (599767)
Malori Redman, San Francisco State University, San Francisco, CA, United States, Lon L. Hood, University of Arizona, Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, Tucson, AZ, United States and Thomas Galarneau, University of Oklahoma Norman Campus, Norman, AZ, United States
The Use of the Enhanced Model Evaluation Tools (METplus) Verification and Diagnostic Capability in S2S (619481)
Tara L Jensen1, John Halley-Gotway1, Weiwei LI2, Zhuo Wang3, Juliana Dias4 and George N Kiladis5, (1)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Urbana, IL, United States, (3)University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, United States, (4)PSD ESRL/NOAA, Boulder, CO, United States, (5)NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO, United States
APHRODITE: Contribution for the early warning of heavy rainfall and consequence of landslides in Nepal (634191)
Akiyo Ishida Yatagai, Hirosaki University, Aomori, Japan, Ryutaro Suzuki, Hirosaki University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Aomori, Japan, Melanie Froude, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom and David N Petley, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, United Kingdom
