PP007
Climate Change in Geological Records and Earth System Models: Lessons for the Future from CMIP6 Paleoclimate Efforts

Session ID#: 77121

Session Description:
Climate models are usually calibrated using present and historical climates, but projections show that future climates will lie well outside the trends and variability recorded by these references. Paleoclimate records and simulations are therefore instrumental to provide stringent tests for state-of-the-art models and to assess whether model sensitivity to forcings is compatible not only with observations of current climate but also with past climate. Simulations of five past periods are addressing the objectives of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6): Last Millennium, Mid-Holocene, Last Glacial Maximum, Last Interglacial, and Mid-Piacenzian (previously, Mid-Pliocene) Warm Period. Each provides a unique perspective on the Earth system. We invite submissions that employ numerical modelling and/or reconstructions for these CMIP6 time periods. Topics could include, but not restricted to, new results on inferences of climate sensitivity and feedbacks, polar amplification and responses of sea ice and ice sheets, hydrological cycle, and interannual to centennial variability.
Co-Sponsor(s):
  • WCRP: World Climate Research Programme -
Index Terms:

1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1621 Cryospheric change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1627 Coupled models of the climate system [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1655 Water cycles [GLOBAL CHANGE]

Primary Convener:  Bette L Otto-Bliesner, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States
Conveners:  Pascale Braconnot, LSCE Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-Sur-Yvette Cedex, France, Ran Feng, University of Connecticut, Department of Geosciences, Storrs, CT, United States and Deepak Chandan, University of Toronto, Physics, Toronto, ON, Canada
Primary Liaison:  Bette L Otto-Bliesner, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States
 
LGM Tropical SST from Mg/Ca and Implications for Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (492492)
Minda M Monteagudo, Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, Atlanta, GA, United States and Jean Lynch-Stieglitz, Georgia Tech, Atlanta, GA, United States
 
On the Non-existence of a Unique Equilibrium Climate Under Last Glacial Maximum Conditions (497571)
Deepak Chandan1, W Richard Peltier2 and Kirsten Tempest1, (1)University of Toronto, Physics, Toronto, ON, Canada, (2)Univ Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
 
Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss during the Last Interglacial and middle Holocene despite paleolimnological evidence for increased atmospheric moisture (501612)
Jamie Marie McFarlin1, Yarrow Axford2, Magdalena R Osburn2, Andrew L Masterson1 and Gregory Everett Lasher3, (1)Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, United States, (2)Northwestern University, Earth and Planetary Sciences, Evanston, IL, United States, (3)Northwestern University, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Evanston, IL, United States
 
Dynamic Effect of Ice Sheet Topography on East Asian Summer Monsoon during the Last Deglaciation (503110)
Yu Gao, Peking University, Beijing, China, Zhengyu Liu, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, United States and Zhengyao Lu, Lund University, Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund, Sweden
 
Simulating characteristics of oxygen isotope in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current at the Last Glacial Maximum (504712)
Lingwei Li, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, United States, Zhengyu Liu, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, United States, Sifan Gu, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China, Jean Lynch-Stieglitz, Georgia Tech, Atlanta, GA, United States, Alexandra Jahn, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States and Jiaxu Zhang, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States
 
Palaeoclimate sensitivity, state dependence, and future outlook (509300)
Eelco Johan Rohling, Australian National University, Research School of Earth Sciences, Canberra, ACT, Australia
 
Simulating the large-scale features of Pliocene climate: The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (509635)
Alan Haywood1, Julia Claire Tindall2, Harry J Dowsett3, Stephen J Hunter1, Aisling M Dolan1 and PlioMIP2 Participants, (1)University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2, United Kingdom, (2)University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom, (3)U.S. Geological Survey, Florence Bascom Geoscience Center, Reston, VA, United States
 
The Last Deglaciation Meltwater Paradox (512463)
Ruza F Ivanovic, University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds, LS2, United Kingdom, Paul J Valdes, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8, United Kingdom, Lauren J Gregoire, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom and Andrew D Wickert, University of Minnesota, Department of Earth & Environmental Sciences and Saint Anthony Falls Laboratory, Minneapolis, MN, United States
 
Impact of fast-varying External Forcing on Climate Variability in Transient Simulations over the Holocene (516471)
Johann H Jungclaus1, Juergen Bader2, Claudia Timmreck1, Stephan Lorenz1 and Matthew Toohey3, (1)Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, (2)Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, The Land in the Earth System, Hamburg, Germany, (3)GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany
 
Paleo Calendar Effects on Radiation, Atmospheric Circulation, and Surface Temperature, Moisture, and Energy-Balance Variables Can Produce Interpretable But Spurious Large-Scale Patterns and Trends in Analyses of Paleoclimatic Simulations (525140)
Patrick J Bartlein, University of Oregon, Geography, Eugene, OR, United States and Sarah L Shafer, US Geological Survey, Corvallis, OR, United States
 
Overview of Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum PMIP4 entry card results (534037)
Pascale Bracconot, Lab. de Modelisation du Climat & de l'Environ. CEA-CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette, Île-de-France, France, Masa Kageyama, LSCE Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-Sur-Yvette Cedex, France and Sandy Harrison, University of Reading, School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science (SAGES), Reading, United Kingdom
 
Asian Monsoon Evolution During the Pliocene Linked to Strengthening Pacific Temperature Gradients (547607)
Michael L Griffiths, William Paterson University of New Jersey, South River, NJ, United States, Jiayi Lu, China University of Geosciences Wuhan, Wuhan, China, Huan Yang, China University of Geosciences Wuhan, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Wuhan, China, Natalie Burls, George Mason University Fairfax, Fairfax, VA, United States, Guoqiao Xiao, State Key Laboratory of Biogeology and Environmental Geology, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China, Jilong Yang, China Geological Survey, Tianjin, China and Shucheng Xie, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China
 
North Atlantic Piacenzian Data Model Comparison: PRISM4 and PlioMIP2 (551671)
Harry J Dowsett1, Kevin Foley1 and PlioMIP2 Participants, (1)U.S. Geological Survey, Florence Bascom Geoscience Center, Reston, VA, United States
 
Spatial Model-Data Comparison of Mid-Holocene Temperatures (554868)
Sabrina A Curtis, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, United States and Carrie Morrill, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Glacial cooling and climate sensitivity revisited (557042)
Jessica E Tierney1, Steven B Malevich2, Jiang Zhu3, Jonathan King2, Christopher J Poulsen4, Andy Ridgwell5, Mingsong Li6, Lee Robert Kump7, Robert Tardif8 and Gregory J. Hakim9, (1)University of Arizona, Geosciences, Tucson, AZ, United States, (2)University of Arizona, Department of Geosciences, Tucson, AZ, United States, (3)Univ Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI, United States, (4)University of Michigan, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, (5)University of California Riverside, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Riverside, CA, United States, (6)Pennsylvania State University, Geosciences, State College, PA, United States, (7)Pennsylvania State Univ, University Park, PA, United States, (8)University of Washington Seattle Campus, Seattle, WA, United States, (9)University of Washington, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, WA, United States
 
Simulating Northern Hemisphere glacial inception in a fully coupled climate-ice-sheet model (565698)
Marcus Lofverstrom, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States, Bette L Otto-Bliesner, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States and Esther C Brady, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States
 
A new global multiproxy Holocene temperature database: a resource for model comparison and evaluation (567045)
Nicholas McKay, Northern Arizona University, School of Earth and Sustainability, Flagstaff, AZ, United States and Temperature 12k Group
 
Can Regional Paleotemperatures Constrain Projections of Future Warming? (569875)
Carrie Morrill, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States and Sabrina A Curtis, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, United States
 
Integrating proxy and model estimates of oceanographic variability and change in the Ross Sea, Antarctica from the Mid-Holocene (6 ka) to present (577116)
Olivia Truax1, Stefan Jendersie2, Christina R Riesselman3, Gary S Wilson1, Rebecca L Parker4, Jae Il Lee5 and Kyu-Cheul Yoo5, (1)University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand, (2)Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand, (3)University of Otago, Departments of Geology and Marine Science, Dunedin, New Zealand, (4)University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom, (5)Korea Polar Research Institute, Incheon, South Korea
 
Simulating mid-Pliocene Sea-Surface Temperatures with the PlioMIP2 Ensemble: a Data-Model Comparison (579138)
Aisling M Dolan1, Julia Claire Tindall2, Alan M Haywood2, Stephen J Hunter1, Harry J Dowsett3, Kevin Foley4 and PlioMIP2 Participants, (1)University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2, United Kingdom, (2)University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom, (3)U.S. Geological Survey, Florence Bascom Geoscience Center, Reston, VA, United States, (4)USGS, Eastern Geology and Paleoclimate Science Center, Reston, VA, United States
 
Contributions of aerosol-cloud interactions to mid-Piacenzian seasonally sea ice-free Arctic Ocean (588371)
Ran Feng, University of Connecticut, Department of Geosciences, Storrs, CT, United States, Bette L Otto-Bliesner, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, Yangyang Xu, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States, Esther C Brady, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, Tamara Fletcher, Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Missoula, MT, United States and Ashley Ballantyne, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, United States
 
Amplified temperature change at high elevation in the tropics during the LGM (589849)
Meredith A Kelly1, Alice M Doughty1, James M Russell2, Margaret S Jackson3, Jonathan W Chipman1, Sloane Garelick2, Nate Anderson3 and Bob Nakileza4, (1)Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, United States, (2)Brown University, Providence, RI, United States, (3)Dartmouth College, Department of Earth Sciences, Hanover, NH, United States, (4)Makerere University, Mountain Resource Centre, Kampala, Uganda
 
Dynamical sequence of ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice changes during an abrupt stadial-to-interstadial climate transition (590024)
Chuncheng Guo, NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bergen, Norway; Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway, Kerim Hestnes Nisancioglu, University of Bergen and the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway, Henrik Sadatzki, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway, Trond Dokken, NORCE Norwegian Research Centre AS, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway and Eystein Jansen, Department of Earth Science, University of Bergen and the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway, Bergen, Norway
 
Attribution Of The Last Glacial Maximum Climate Formation (594809)
Jian Cao, NUIST Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China, Bin Wang, Univ Hawaii, Honolulu, United States and Jian Liu, Nanjing Normal University, School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing, China
 
Reconstructions of changes in deep ocean circulation and climate through the last large glacial-interglacial cycle in the North Atlantic region (Invited) (606729)
Jerry F McManus, Columbia U. / LDEO, Palisades, NY, United States, Kassandra Costa, Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States, Yuxin Zhou, Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States, Miah Cohall, Manhattan College, The Bronx, United States and Sharon Susanna Hoffmann, University of North Carolina at Wilmington, Wilmington, NC, United States
 
Implications of Last Interglacial Changes in Insolation Seasonality: Results from the CMIP6/PMIP4 lig127k Simulations (614865)
Bette L Otto-Bliesner, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States and The PMIP4 and PAGES QUIGS Teams
 
Patterns and Possible Mechanisms of Younger Dryas Temperature Trends in Eastern North America (622114)
David Fastovich, University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI, United States, James M Russell, Brown University, Providence, RI, United States, Stephen T Jackson, USGS Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center, Tucson, AZ, United States and John W Williams, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, United States
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