A068
Extreme precipitation in past, present and future climates
Session ID#: 77334
Session Description:
Precipitation extremes, including heavy snowfall and rainfall, may occur on different time scales ranging from minutes, days to seasons. These extremes can be associated with severe impacts such as flooding, but are also important for water supply as individual events can substantially raise the levels of water reservoirs. This session will focus on precipitation extremes, including their driving dynamic and thermodynamic processes, external drivers, impacts, statistical properties, and changes in their occurrence related to climate variability and climate change.
Therefore contributions are invited that investigate precipitation extremes and their impacts under past, present and future climate conditions. This includes studies that aim to understand individual events, the spatial and temporal variability in the occurrence of precipitation extremes, predictability, and long term changes, based on observational data and climate models including atmospheric models at very high resolution. Contributions are also invited that link precipitation extremes with environmental and socio-economic impacts.
Co-Sponsor(s):
Index Terms:
1854 Precipitation [HYDROLOGY]
3305 Climate change and variability [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3354 Precipitation [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4313 Extreme events [NATURAL HAZARDS]
Primary Convener: Markus Donat, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Earth Sciences Department, Barcelona, Spain
Conveners: Erich M Fischer, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, Paul A O'Gorman, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States and Andreas F Prein, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States
Primary Liaison: Paul A O'Gorman, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States
Dynamic Amplification of Extreme Precipitation Sensitivity (Invited) (488337)
Ji Nie, Peking University, Beijing, China, Adam H Sobel, Columbia University, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, NY, United States, Daniel Shaevitz, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States and Shuguang Wang, Columbia University of New York, Palisades, NY, United States
Atmospheric Rivers in a Changing Climate: An Overview from the Second Phase of the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) (490531)
Ashley Elizabeth Payne, University of Michigan, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, Christine A Shields, NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States, Jonathan J Rutz, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, United States, L. Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States, Travis Allen O'Brien, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Climate & Ecosystem Sciences Division, Berkeley, CA, United States, F Martin Ralph, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, La Jolla, CA, United States and Michael F Wehner, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States
Historical Relationships Between Climate Forcings and Observed Extreme Precipitation (493300)
Mark Daniel Risser1, Christopher J Paciorek2, Michael F Wehner3, Travis Allen O'Brien4, Christina M Patricola1 and William Drew Collins5, (1)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Berkeley, CA, United States, (2)University of California, Berkeley, CA, United States, (3)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States, (4)Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Climate & Ecosystem Sciences Division, Berkeley, CA, United States, (5)Berkeley Lab and UC Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States
Shift towards intense and widespread precipitation events over the United States by mid 21st century (498973)
Deeksha Rastogi, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge, TN, United States, Danielle E Touma, Stanford University, Earth System Science, Stanford, CA, United States and Moetasim Ashfaq, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States
Rainfall Extremes: Not Only Getting More Intense But Bigger in Size As Well (502667)
Akshaya Nikumbh, Indian Institute of Science, Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Bangalore, India, Arindam Chakraborty, Indian Institute of Science, Centre For Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Bangalore, India and G. S. Bhat, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India
Can GCMs produce credible projections of changes in extreme precipitation? (Invited) (503884)
Alexander D Hall1, Naomi L Goldenson2, Xingying Huang1 and Chad William Thackeray3, (1)University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (2)University of Washington Seattle Campus, Seattle, WA, United States, (3)University of Waterloo, Department of Geography and Environmental Management, Waterloo, Canada
Observational uncertainties in the estimation of precipitation extremes (513008)
Margot Bador, CLEX, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia and Lisa Alexander, University of New South Wales, Climate Change Research Centre, Sydney, NSW, Australia
A Climatology of Atmospheric Rivers and Associated Precipitation for the Seven US National Climate Assessment Regions (517365)
Paul C Loikith, Portland State University, Portland, OR, United States, Emily A Slinskey, Pathumthani, Thailand, Duane Edward Waliser, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States and Bin Guan, University of California, Los Angeles, Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, Los Angeles, CA, United States
An Exploration of Extreme Precipitation from Tropical Cyclones over the Eastern United States in Variable-Resolution CAM (518478)
Alyssa M Stansfield, Stony Brook University, School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Stony Brook, NY, United States, Kevin A Reed, Stony Brook University, School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook, NY, United States, Colin M. Zarzycki, Pennsylvania State University, Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, University Park, PA, United States, Paul Aaron Ullrich, Univ California Davis, Fremont, CA, United States and Daniel Robert Chavas, Purdue University, Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, West Lafayette, IN, United States
Changes in Precipitation Extremes with Climate Warming (522971)
Rachel Maya Robinson, North Carolina State University, Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, Raleigh, NC, United States, Gary Lackmann, North Carolina State University, Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, Raleigh, United States and Allison Michaelis, University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States
Dynamic versus Thermodynamic Control of Changes in Mean and Extreme Precipitation (525792)
Prashant D Sardeshmukh, CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States; NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States and Jih-Wang Aaron Wang, University of Colorado at Boulder, CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States
Future precipitation changes over China under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming targets by using CORDEX regional climate models (527650)
Huixin Li1, Huopo Chen2, Wang Huijun1,2 and Entao Yu2, (1)Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China, (2)Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Understanding the Recent Enhancement in Precipitation Variability over California (529189)
Diana Zamora-Reyes, University of Arizona, Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, Tucson, AZ, United States, Valerie Trouet, University of Arizona, Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, Tucson, AZ, United States, Bryan Black, University of Arizona, Tucson, United States and Guobao Xu, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States
1993–2015 Climatology and changes of extreme precipitation events in Taiwan based on weather types (531659)
Yi-chao Wu, NCDR National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction of Taiwan, New Taipei, Taiwan, Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Utah State University, Logan, UT, United States and Yi-Chiang Yu, NCDR National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction of Taiwan, Meteorology Division, New Taipei, Taiwan
Pattern Classification and Impacts of Subseasonal to Seasonal Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States (540823)
Melanie Schroers, University of Oklahoma Norman Campus, School of Meteorology, Norman, OK, United States, Elinor R Martin, University of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology, Norman, OK, United States and Gregory Jennrich, University of Oklahoma Norman Campus, Meteorology, Norman, OK, United States
Attribution of extreme precipitation changes during 1951-2015: An updated analysis using CMIP6 models (570167)
Seungmok Paik, Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), Pohang, South Korea, Seung-Ki Min, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, South Korea, Xuebin Zhang, Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada and Markus Donat, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain
Reconciling Conflicting Results on Intensification of Heavy Precipitation in a Changing Climate (578651)
Nikolina Ban, ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zurich, Switzerland, Roman Brogli, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, Nico Kröner, South Pole, Zürich, Switzerland, Zurich, Switzerland, David Leutwyler, ETH Zurich, Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zurich, Switzerland; MPI Hamburg Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany and Christoph Schar, ETH Zurich, Atmospheric & Climate Science, Zurich, Switzerland
How and why has extreme hourly precipitation changed in the major urban agglomerations over China? (583176)
Yali Luo, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China, Fei Chen, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO, United States, Mengwen Wu, Zhejiang Meteorological Bureau, Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Hangzhou, China and Da-Lin Zhang, University of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD, United States
Three-Dimensional Circulation Structure of Summer Heavy Rainfall in the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (585232)
Fang Huan1, Weihua Yuan1 and You ping Xu2, (1)LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China, (2)IAP Insititute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, The State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Beijing, China
Risks of Precipitation Extremes over Southeast Asia: Does 1.5 °C or 2 °C Global Warming Make a Difference? (590316)
Shoupeng Zhu, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China, Fei Ge, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu, China, Xiefei Zhi, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, China, Frank Sielmann, Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany and Klaus Fraedrich, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Contrasting Behaviors of Extreme Precipitation over Land and Ocean under Radiative-Convective Equilibrium (591566)
Xiaoming Sun, University of Connecticut, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering & Center for Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Storrs, CT, United States and Guiling Wang, University of Connecticut, Civil and Environmental Engineering & Center for Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Storrs, CT, United States
Extreme Value Analysis of Ground Snow Load in Canada (592358)
Yaqiong Wang1, Charles Curry2, Faron S Anslow3, Charlotte Ballantyne1 and Francis W Zwiers3, (1)University of Victoria, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, Canada, (2)University of Victoria, School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Victoria, BC, Canada, (3)University of Victoria, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC, Canada
Recent Changes in United States Extreme Precipitation as Indicated by Excursions on the R-CAT Scale (594231)
Maryam Asgari Lamjiri, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States, F Martin Ralph, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, La Jolla, CA, United States and Michael D Dettinger, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, La Jolla, CA, United States
Why do Atmospheric Rivers cause Different Floods? (597283)
Helen Griffith, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom, Andrew J Wade, University of Reading, Reading, RG6, United Kingdom, David Lavers, European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom and Glenn Watts, Environment Agency (UK), Bristol, United Kingdom
A Stable Isotopic Profile of Atmospheric River Precipitation Impacting the Sacramento Valley (622337)
Erika Ornouski, California State University Sacramento, Geography, Sacramento, CA, United States, Theron Sowers, California State University California, Geology, Sacramento, United States and Amy J Wagner, California State University Sacramento, Geology, Sacramento, CA, United States
