A069
Extreme Weather Events: Forecast skill, Uncertainty Quantification and Impact Modeling

Session ID#: 80909

Session Description:
Severe weather in the form of winter storms, tornadoes, thunderstorms, hurricanes and heat waves is a cause of major disruptions in human lives, critical infrastructure and the environment. Skillful prediction of such extreme events through numerical weather prediction, statistical techniques or their combination in hybrid dynamical-statistical methods is crucial for managing preparedness, emergency response, and mitigation of impacts. Additionally, understanding forecast uncertainty (e.g. initial condition and model error, or unresolved physical processes) improves situational awareness and influences confidence in impact modeling. This session is dedicated to the assessment of extreme weather prediction and solicits abstracts from a broad range of research focused on forecasting extreme weather events, understanding sources of forecast uncertainty (e.g. through dynamical and statistical ensembles), and evaluating the influence of forecast uncertainty on preparing for and managing severe weather through impact modeling.
Index Terms:

3329 Mesoscale meteorology [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3354 Precipitation [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3355 Regional modeling [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4313 Extreme events [NATURAL HAZARDS]

Primary Convener:  Marina Astitha, University of Connecticut, Civil & Environmental Engineering, Storrs, CT, United States
Conveners:  Luca Delle Monache, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, San Diego, CA, United States and Forest Cannon, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States
Primary Liaison:  Marina Astitha, University of Connecticut, Civil & Environmental Engineering, Storrs, CT, United States
 
Relative roles of dry intrusion, latent heat and instabilities in the Mei-yu rainband lifecycle: a case study (485796)
Xia Luo, College of Meteorology and Oceanolography,National University of Defense Technology, Nanjing, China
 
The Warn-on-Forecast Probabilistic Model Guidance for Intense Rainfall and Flash Flooding (486602)
Nusrat Yussouf1, Patrick Skinner2, Katie Wilson3, Brian Matilla4, Kent Knopfmeier3, Thomas Jones4, Jessica Choate3, Pamela Heinselman5, David Dowell6, Therese Ladwig7, Steve Martinaitis8, Jonathan J Gourley9, Humberto J Vergara10, Gerald J Creager11 and Louis Wicker5, (1)Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies/University of Oklahoma/NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK, United States, (2)University of Oklahoma and NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, Norman, OK, United States, (3)Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies//University of Oklahoma/NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, United States, (4)Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies/University of Oklahoma/NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, United States, (5)NOAA/NSSL, Norman, United States, (6)NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, United States, (7)CIRA and NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Norman, United States, (8)University of Oklahoma Norman Campus, CIMMS, Norman, OK, United States, (9)National Severe Storms Lab, Oklahoma City, OK, United States, (10)Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, United States, (11)Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies//University of Oklahoma/NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK, United States
 
Recent Updates to NCEP Global Modeling Systems: Implementation of FV3 based Global Forecast System (GFS v15.1) and Plans for Implementation of Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFSv12) (490779)
Vijay Tallapragada, National Centers For Environmental Prediction-Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD, United States
 
Incorporating Event Severity Classification in Weather-Related Power Outage Prediction (494174)
Feifei Yang, Peter Lawrence Watson, Marika Koukoula, Diego Cerrai and Emmanouil Anagnostou, University of Connecticut, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Storrs, CT, United States
 
Bivariate Approach to Flood Risk Assessment and Mapping of Flood Plain in River Hindon (495994)
Akshat Jain and Rakesh Khosa, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Department of Civil Engineering, New Delhi, India
 
Inclusion of Electrical Force Modified Raindrop Size Distribution Improves Simulation of Precipitation in a Weather Prediction Model (496110)
Dipjyoti Mudiar1, Anupam Hazra1, Sunil Pawar2, Manoj K Srivastava3 and Bhupendra Nath Goswami4, (1)Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India, (2)Indian Institute Of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India, (3)Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, 221, India, (4)Cotton college State University, Physics, Guwahati, India
 
Tropical-Like Cyclones: Extreme Value Analysis and Risk Exposed Areas (496489)
Platon Patlakas, Christos Stathopoulos, Christos Tsalis and George B Kallos, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
 
Forecast error analysis of a persistent heavy rainfall based on ensemble models (502586)
Yue Guan, Beijing, Beijing, China
 
The preliminary application of tropical cyclone targeted singular vectors in the GRAPES global ensemble forecasts (505205)
Zhenhua Huo, Beijing, Beijing, China; National Meteorological Center of CMA, Beijing, China
 
Statistical and Machine Learning Models as a Tool for Forecasting Extreme Summer Precipitation Driven by ENSO in the Northern Coast of Peru (1981-2018) (506623)
Fiorela Castillón Lucas1,2, Jose Obregón Y2,3, Pedro Rau1,2, Daniel Vicente Horna Munoz1,2 and Eli Tziperman4, (1)Water Research and Technology Centre CITA, Universidad de Ingeniería y Tecnología UTEC, Lima, Peru, Lima, Peru, (2)Water Research and Technology Centre (CITA), Lima, Peru, (3)La Molina National Agrarian University, Meteorology, Lima, Peru, (4)Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA., Cambridge, MA, United States
 
Corn Sweat, Heat Wave, The Midwest (510467)
Amir Souri, Huiqun Wang, Gonzalo Gonzalez Abad, Xiong Liu and Kelly Chance, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA, United States
 
Sensitivity of Midlatitude Heavy Precipitation to SST: A Case Study in the Sea of Japan area on August 9, 2013 (512995)
Satoshi Iizuka, NIED National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, Tsukuba, Japan and Hisashi Nakamura, University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Japan
 
Numerical Downscaling of Extreme Events at South Brazil Coastal Region (517445)
Renato Ramos-da-Silva1, Danilo Couto de Souza Sr2 and Reinaldo Haas1, (1)Federal University of Santa Catarina (UFSC), Physics, Florianópolis, Brazil, (2)Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianópolis, Brazil
 
Storm Surge Component of the Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model (517692)
Yuepeng Li1, Qiang Chen Dr.2, Dave Kelly1, Keqi Zhang3 and Jing Gao1, (1)Florida International University, IHRC, Miami, FL, United States, (2)Florida International University, IHRC, Miami, United States, (3)Florida International Univ, Miami, FL, United States
 
Objective Detection of the Kunming Quasi-stationary Front (519445)
Di Zhao, Kunming, Yunnan, China, Ruowen Yang, Yun Tao, Meteorological Institute of Yunnan Province, Kunming, China, Weikang Zhang, Doumen County Meteorological Bureau of Guangdong Province, Zhuhai, China and Xucheng He, University of Helsinki, Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research/Physics, Faculty of Science, Helsinki, Finland
 
Global Hail Hazard Map (549720)
Andreas D Muehlbauer, FM Global, Research Division, Norwood, MA, United States
 
Using Machine Learning to Predict Tornadoes Based on Sounding and Reanalysis Data (562110)
Maria Geogdzhayeva, Hunter College High School, New York, NY, United States and Irina Repina, Inst Atmospheric Physic, Moscow, Russia
 
Projection of Future Heat Waves in the United States Based on Locally Selected GCMs (562169)
Javad Shafiei Shiva, Syracuse University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Syracuse, NY, United States and David G Chandler, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY, United States
 
On the predictive accuracy of wind gusts related to severe storms for the Northeast United States (564269)
Michael S. Walters, University of Connecticut, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Groton, CT, United States and Marina Astitha, University of Connecticut, Civil & Environmental Engineering, Storrs, CT, United States
 
The High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) system: Applications and Performance for Forecasting Convective Storms (564642)
Brett Roberts, Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center, and NOAA/OAR/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK, United States, Burkely T. Gallo, Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies and NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK, United States, Israel L Jirak, NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK, United States and Adam Clark, NOAA/OAR/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK, Norman, OK, United States
 
Climatology and Spatiotemporal Analysis of North Atlantic Rapidly Intensifying Hurricanes (568109)
Kathleen Mary Benedetto, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, United States and Jill C. Trepanier, Louisiana State University, Geography & Anthropology, Baton Rouge, LA, United States
 
Dynamic Mechanisms of Summer Heat Waves over the Korean Peninsula Simulated in Long-term Unforced CCSM3 (569966)
Han-Kyoung Kim1, Byung-Kwon Moon1, Maeng-Ki Kim2, Jin-Ho Choi1, Hyun-Chae Jung1 and MinHo Kwon3, (1)Chonbuk National University, Jeonju, South Korea, (2)Kongju National University, Atmospheric Science, Gongju, South Korea, (3)KIOST Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology, Ansan, Korea, Republic of (South)
 
Using Self-Organising Maps and Bayesian Statistics to Build a Severe Windstorm Climatology of Australia (573211)
Alessio Spassiani, University of Queensland, School of Civil Engineering, Brisbane, QLD, Australia, Matthew S Mason, The University of Queensland, School of Civil Engineering, Brisbane, QLD, Australia, Vincent Y.S. Cheng, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Climate Research Division, Toronto, ON, Canada and Richard J Krupar, Berkshire Hathaway Specialty Insurance, San Ramon, CA, United States
 
The ECMWF modeling system: performance today and tomorrow (Invited) (577274)
Florian Pappenberger, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom
 
Forecasting Hurricane-induced Power Outage with Unknown Distribution Network (586614)
Fang Zhang1, Donatella Pasqualini2 and Ning Lin1, (1)Princeton University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton, NJ, United States, (2)Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States
 
Assessment of summertime heavy rainfall and heat wave in Seoul, South Korea (589260)
Woosuk Choi and Junghwan Lee, Seoul Institute of Technology, Seoul, South Korea
 
Using Model Ensembles and Stochastic Parameter Perturbations to Forecast Severe and Hazardous Weather (601705)
Evan Anthony Kalina1,2, Isidora Jankov3,4, Judith Berner5, Trevor Alcott6, Joseph Olson7, David Dowell8, Jeff Beck3 and Curtis Alexander9, (1)Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Fort Collins, CO, United States, (4)NOAA Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, (5)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (6)NOAA, ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO, United States, (7)University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, (8)NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, United States, (9)NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Extreme Heat Identification with High Spatio-Temporal Resolution Using the Analog Ensemble Technique (613639)
Martina Calovi, Guido Cervone and Laura Clemente-Harding, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, University Park, PA, United States
 
Verification of Thunderstorm, Mesocyclone, and Tornado Forecasts from an Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System (613827)
Patrick Skinner1, Kent Knopfmeier2, Anthony Reinhart3, Montgomery Flora4, Nusrat Yussouf5, Thomas Jones6, Burkely T. Gallo7, Corey Potvin8, Jessica Choate2, Susan Beveridge9, Katie Wilson2, Gerald J Creager10, David Dowell11, Therese Ladwig12, Curtis Alexander13, Louis Wicker14 and Pamela Heinselman14, (1)University of Oklahoma and NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, Norman, OK, United States, (2)Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies//University of Oklahoma/NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, United States, (3)OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK, United States, (4)University of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology, Norman, OK, United States, (5)Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies/University of Oklahoma/NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK, United States, (6)Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies/University of Oklahoma/NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, United States, (7)Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies and NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK, United States, (8)National Severe Storms Lab, Norman, OK, United States, (9)Purdue University, West Lafayette, United States, (10)Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies//University of Oklahoma/NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK, United States, (11)NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, United States, (12)CIRA and NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Norman, United States, (13)NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, (14)NOAA/NSSL, Norman, United States
 
Forecasting Eastern US Cold Air Damming using a Multi-Scale Dynamical-Statistical Hybrid Approach (632551)
Thomas M Hopson, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, Jason C. Knievel, NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States and Maria Eugenia Frediani, University of Connecticut, Storrs Mansfield, CT, United States
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