A078
Post-processing of Weather and Climate Model Forecasts at Short-term, Subseasonal, Seasonal, and Decadal Timescales
Session ID#: 79905
Session Description:
Skillful short-range weather forecasts, as well as climate predictions on subseasonal to decadal timescales of pertinent variables and events (e.g. temperature, precipitation, flooding, drought, hurricanes, sea ice, wildfires) are of high societal value. These predictions typically rely on ensemble guidance from dynamical forecasting systems, and furthermore require some form of statistical post-processing to (1) correct for biases and yield statistically reliable forecasts, and to (2) downscale variables to user-preferred scales. This session seeks contributions describing novel approaches for addressing either, or both, of these two important aspects of weather and climate prediction. As forecast post-processing applies to a broad range of techniques for many different target variables, this session provides an opportunity for sharing insights and encouraging interdisciplinary collaboration.
Co-Sponsor(s):
Index Terms:
0799 General or miscellaneous [CRYOSPHERE]
1899 General or miscellaneous [HYDROLOGY]
3245 Probabilistic forecasting [MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS]
3309 Climatology [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
Primary Convener: Arlan Dirkson, University of Quebec at Montreal UQAM, Montreal, Canada; ECCC/CMC, Dorval, QC, Canada
Conveners: Lifeng Luo, Michigan State University, Department of Geography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences, East Lansing, MI, United States and Michael Scheuerer, CIRES, NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States
Primary Liaison: Arlan Dirkson, University of Quebec at Montreal UQAM, Montreal, Canada; ECCC/CMC, Dorval, QC, Canada
Leveraging Machine Learning and Synoptic Climatology to Model and Forecast Water Clarity in the Great Lakes (493317)
Cameron C Lee1, Scott C Sheridan1, Erik Tyler Smith1, Brian B Barnes2, Douglas Pirhalla3, Varis Ransi3, Ryan Adams1 and Chuanmin Hu2, (1)Kent State University Kent Campus, Kent, OH, United States, (2)University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL, United States, (3)National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD, United States
Using Artificial Neural Networks for Generating Probabilistic Subseasonal Precipitation Forecasts over California (502650)
Michael Scheuerer1, Matthew Switanek1, Thomas Hamill2 and Rochelle Worsnop1, (1)CIRES, NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)NOAA Boulder, ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO, United States
Persistent and reemergent sea surface temperatures: a recipe for better climate forecasts (Invited) (503012)
Matthew Switanek1, Joseph J Barsugli2, Michael Scheuerer1 and Thomas Hamill3, (1)CIRES, NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)NOAA Boulder, ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO, United States
Embedding trend into GCM seasonal temperature forecasts through statistical calibration (504710)
Q. J. WANG1, Yawen Shao1, Dongryeol Ryu2 and Andrew Schepen3, (1)The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia, (2)The University of Melbourne, Department of Infrastructure Engineering, Parkville, VIC, Australia, (3)CSIRO Land and Water, Dutton Park QLD 4102, Australia
Long-range probabilistic fire-weather forecasting based on Ensemble Model Output Statistics and Ensemble Copula Coupling (517290)
Rochelle Worsnop1, Michael Scheuerer1 and Thomas Hamill2, (1)CIRES, NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)NOAA Boulder, ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO, United States
Calibrated Seasonal Ensemble Forecasts of Arctic Sea Ice Advance and Retreat Dates (582906)
Arlan Dirkson, University of Quebec at Montreal UQAM, Montreal, Canada, Bertrand Denis, Meteorological Service of Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada, Michael Sigmond, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada and William J Merryfield, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
An Analysis of Bias-corrected Monthly Forecasts - Potential Perils and Improvements (613846)
Gregory J Husak1, Shraddhanand Shukla1, Amy McNally2 and Chris C Funk3, (1)University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States, (2)US Agency for International Development, Falls Church, United States, (3)USGS, Sioux Falls, SD, United States
