B078
Multi-hypothesis studies of ecological and hydrological systems
Session ID#: 82170
Session Description:
Ecological and hydrological systems are composed of many interconnected processes. Often there are multiple competing hypotheses for how these processes operate. Multiple hypotheses for many system processes can lead to a vast number of possible meta-hypotheses for the whole system (i.e. models). However, most current models represent each process using just a single hypothesis, ignoring the wide diversity of plausible models. Even multi-model ensembles represent just a very small (often non-independent) sample of the plausible models and it is difficult to draw clear inferences of which model differences produce variability across the ensemble. Recognizing this limited hypothesis diversity and the difficulty of identifying variability-causing processes, software and statistical methods are being developed to make multi-hypothesis approaches more available. We invite abstracts from those who are imagining, developing, or applying the methods needed to tease apart the influence and interactions of multiple alternative hypotheses in ecological and hydrological systems.
Co-Organized:
Index Terms:
0439 Ecosystems, structure and dynamics [BIOGEOSCIENCES]
0466 Modeling [BIOGEOSCIENCES]
1847 Modeling [HYDROLOGY]
1873 Uncertainty assessment [HYDROLOGY]
Primary Convener: Anthony P Walker, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States and ming ye
Convener: Ming Ye, Florida State University, Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Tallahassee, FL, United States and ming ye
Primary Liaison: Anthony P Walker, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States and ming ye
Multi-hypothesis Representation of Leaf Level Photosynthesis Reveals the Sources of Variation in Terrestrial Biosphere Model Representation of CO2 Assimilation (Invited) (488373)
Alistair Rogers1, Shawn Serbin1 and Anthony P Walker2, (1)Brookhaven National Laboratory, Environmental and Climate Sciences Department, Upton, NY, United States, (2)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States
Photosynthetic Adaptation to Carbon Dioxide Gradients in Yellowstone: A glimpse into the future of climate change? (510297)
G Charles Dismukes, Rutgers University New Brunswick, Dept of Chemistry and the Waksman Institute, New Brunswick, NJ, United States, Marie-Claire Ten Veldhuis, Delft University of Technology, Water Management, Delft, Netherlands, Apostolos Zournas, Rutgers University New Brunswick, Waksman Institute and CBE Dept, New Brunswick, NJ, United States and Gennady Ananyev, Rutgers University, Waksman Institute, Piscataway, NJ, United States
Evaluation of Nutrient Allocation Hypotheses in the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) (522331)
Ryan Knox1, Charles Koven1, William J Riley1, Jacquelyn K Shuman2, Anthony P Walker3, Gautam Bisht4, Jennifer Holm1, Rosie Fisher2, Gregory Lemieux1, Qing Zhu1, Jinyun Tang5 and David Medvigy6, (1)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States, (2)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States, (4)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States, (5)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Berkeley, CA, United States, (6)University of Notre Dame, Biological Sciences, Notre Dame, IN, United States
Bayesian Inference and Predictive Performance of Soil Respiration Models in the Presence of Model Discrepancy (546973)
Ming Ye, Florida State University, Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Tallahassee, FL, United States and Ahmed S. Elshall, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, United States
Flux Mapping: a new approach to evaluate process-based models and generate model-based hypotheses (580584)
Sina Khatami1, Murray Cameron Peel2, Tim J Peterson2 and Andrew William Western3, (1)University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia, (2)The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia, (3)University of Melbourne, Department of Infrastructure Engineering, Parkville, VIC, Australia
Markov chain Monte Carlo parameter estimation for testing multiple hypotheses of the drivers of seasonality in Sphagnum gross primary production (586191)
Abbey Johnson1, Anthony Walker1, Paul J Hanson2, Dan Lu1 and David J Weston1, (1)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States, (2)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge, TN, United States
Quantifying hydrologic regime shifts on ecological time scales using wavelets (634057)
John L Sabo, Arizona State University, Julie Ann Wrigley Global Institute of Sustainability, Tempe, AZ, United States, Tamara Harms, University of Alaska-Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States and Albert Ruhi, National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, University of Maryland, Annapolis, MD, United States
