GC050
Large Ensemble Climate Models as tools for exploring Internal Variability, Climate Change Signals, and Impacts
Session ID#: 83097
Session Description:
A growing number of researchers are using ensemble model simulations, including those from Global Climate Models (GCMs), Earth system models (ESMs), and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to explore how the Earth system is changing. A strength of the method is that the forced trend can be readily identified for simulations spanning historical and/or future projections, and relating this to simulated internal variability provides a means to estimate how and when climate change signals emerge.
This session welcomes research spanning all components of the Earth system. In addition to the application of existing methods to new scientific questions, the session also encourages novel approaches and methods.
Index Terms:
3305 Climate change and variability [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3322 Land/atmosphere interactions [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4215 Climate and interannual variability [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
4805 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling [OCEANOGRAPHY: BIOLOGICAL AND CHEMICAL]
Primary Convener: Keith B Rodgers, IBS Center for Climate Physics, Busan, South Korea and Mingfang Ting
Conveners: Mingfang Ting, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY, United States, Andrea Dittus, University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, United Kingdom, Martin Leduc, Concordia University, Montreal, QC, Canada and Mingfang Ting
Primary Liaison: Ralf Ludwig, Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, Geography, Munich, Germany and Mingfang Ting
Nonuniform Contribution of Internal Variability to Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss (Invited) (521615)
Mark England, Columbia University of New York, Palisades, NY, United States, Alexandra Jahn, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States and Lorenzo M Polvani, Columbia University, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, NY, United States
Using LES to clarify the relative role of forcing uncertainties and initial‐condition unknowns in spreading the climate response to volcanic eruptions (533174)
Davide Zanchettin1, Claudia Timmreck2, Matthew Toohey3, Johann H Jungclaus2, Matthias Bittner2, Stephan Lorenz2 and Angelo Rubino1, (1)University of Venice, Venice, Italy, (2)Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, (3)GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany
Detecting robust responses of the ENSO teleconnection to global warming using a multi-model large-ensemble experiment (540904)
Camille Li1,2, Clio Michel1,2, Isla Simpson3, Ingo Bethke2,4, Martin P. King5 and Stefan Sobolowski5, (1)University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway, (2)Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway, (3)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)University of Bergen, (5)Uni Research Climate & Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Using large ensemble climate models to evaluate methods of uncertainty estimation in attribution and detection (541290)
Laurie L Trenary, George Mason University Fairfax, Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, Fairfax, VA, United States, Timothy M DelSole, George Mason University Fairfax, Fairfax, VA, United States and Michael Tippett, Columbia University, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, NY, United States
North Pacific Acidification Considered for Emergence Timescales and Extreme Events (543939)
Keith B Rodgers, IBS Center for Climate Physics, Busan, South Korea, Sarah Schlunegger, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, Burke R Hales, Oregon State Univ, Corvallis, OR, United States, Richard Slater, Princeton University, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton, NJ, United States and Axel Timmermann, Pusan National University, IBS Center for Climate Physics, Busan, South Korea
Using Single-Forcing Initial-Condition Large Ensembles to Identify the Evolving Contributions of GHG, Anthropogenic Aerosols and Internal Variability to Historical Climate Trends (Invited) (549303)
Clara Deser1, Flavio Lehner1, Isla Simpson2, Pedro N DiNezio3 and Adam Phillips1, (1)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States
Comparing Internal Variabilities in Three Regional Single Model Initial-condition Large Ensembles (SMILE) over Europe (581542)
Fabian von Trentini1, Emma E. Aalbers2, Erich M Fischer3 and Ralf Ludwig1, (1)Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, Geography, Munich, Germany, (2)Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands, (3)ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Understanding Drivers of Glacier Length Variability Over the Last Millennium (605357)
Alan Charles Huston1, Nicholas Siler1, Gerard Roe2, Erin Pettit3 and Nathan John Steiger4, (1)Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States, (2)University of Washington, Seattle, Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Seattle, WA, United States, (3)Oregon State, Corvallis, Oregon, United States, (4)University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
Perturbed parameters ensembles of idealized experiments to learn about the behavior of a climate model. (609552)
Ambarish Karmalkar1, David Sexton2, James Murphy2 and Ben Booth3, (1)University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, United States, (2)Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Science and Services, Exeter, United Kingdom, (3)Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Chaos in the Ocean and Coupled Large Ensemble Simulations (631301)
Nico Wienders1, Quentin Jamet1, William K Dewar2 and Bruno Deremble1,3, (1)Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, United States, (2)Florida State University, EOAS, Tallahassee, FL, United States, (3)Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique ENS, Paris, France
Winter rainfall decline in Southern Africa: when can we expect another “Day Zero” Cape Town drought? (495210)
Salvatore Pascale1, Sarah B Kapnick1, Thomas L Delworth2 and William Cooke3, (1)Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, (2)NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ, United States, (3)Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States
Fast and Slow Responses of Equatorial SST Pattern to CO2 Forcing (500664)
Kezhou Lu, Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, Atlanta, GA, United States, Jie He, GFDL, Princeton, United States; Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, United States and Maria Rugenstein, IMAU University Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands
