Spring Sea ice forecasts and Bering Sea Indigenous marine mammal harvests

Abstract:

Reliable, high-resolution sea ice forecasts may help contribute to safety of Indigenous marine mammal hunting and community travel in the Arctic. At the same time, sea ice forecasts could also be useful predictors of seasonal harvest success, including potential harvest shortfalls with impacts at the community level. However, large scale measures of sea ice concentration and ice extent are not sufficient indicators for predicting marine mammal harvest success in Bering Strait communities. Weekly sea ice and weather forecasts for Alaskan communities in the Bering Strait were analyzed from the Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook (SIWO) to identify sea ice and weather thresholds that greatly affected Indigenous marine mammal hunting activity and access to marine mammals during the spring harvest. The forecast of the timing for ice-free waters around a coastal community generally aligned with local observations. However some hunters continued to hunt by traveling longer distances from shore to reach marine mammals. This emphasizes the importance of maintaining coastal and marine forecasts even when coastal areas around communities appear ice-free. It was also apparent that while wind forecasts generally predicted the local wind conditions that were observed, the forecasts sometimes omitted important changes in wind direction, speed or ice movement, that occasionally resulted in ocean and ice conditions that required local search and rescue efforts or left hunters “stuck in the ice” overnight. The use of seasonal sea ice forecasts from models have not yet been explored with community partners as a potential tool to plan for upcoming subsistence hunting seasons, although the current use of SIWO is recognized as a tool to record hunter observations in "our words and descriptions" for current events and for future use and analysis. An evaluation of the Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook is being conducted, and the results of this new study will be useful to support future development of forecast information, and avenues for sharing of timely community observations.