Changes in Sea Ice Travel Conditions in Uummannaq Fjord, Greenland (1985-2019) Assessed through Remote Sensing and Transportation Modeling

Abstract:

Shorefast sea ice provides an important platform for winter and spring travel between communities in Greenland. In the past two decades, local residents in Greenland and other parts of the Arctic have reported thinning and earlier breakup of shorefast sea ice which shortens the season for use of sea ice for travel. However, despite these assertions, the impacts of climate change on sea ice travel have yet to be quantitatively assessed. This study explores the use of high-resolution satellite remote sensing and transportation modelling for studying changes to snowmobile travel in Uummannaq Fjord, Greenland. We generate least-cost travel routes according to different ice surface types present in the fjord, and to fractures that form during break up. We use these modeled routes to calculate the distance and duration of snowmobile travel between communities over a 34-year study period from 1985 through 2019. We find that travel in more recent years (2014-2019) has become slower and more unpredictable than earlier years (1985-2000). When sea ice is present, we find that travel is predominantly impeded by reduced snow cover rather than the opening of fractures. Finally, communities that are closer to the ice edge and more remote from Uummannaq have experienced greater changes in sea ice travel distance and duration than proximal communities. Our analysis demonstrates how a combination of remote sensing and geospatial modeling could be used to quantify the effects of changing shorefast sea ice conditions at the community scale and inform policy planning to manage localized climate-related risk.