Migration Responses to Sudden Shock vs Gradual Change: an Exploration in a Minimalistic Model

Abstract:

Migration is a complex process resulting from the interplay between social and environmental contexts and individuals’ decisions. Complicating the matter is the fact that potential migrants’ considerations change as a migration episode unfolds. How would such changing mindsets interplay with disturbances of different timescales? Here we put that question to the test in a minimalistic model that encapsulates a few widely accepted factors affecting migration into migration probability. Model parameters, such as strength of social tie and considerations of economic opportunities and environmental conditions - as well as how they change over time - can be adjusted in order to adapt the model to different scenarios. The results of two scenarios were compared: one where a sudden event caused a large migration simultaneously for all individuals in a region and one where living conditions gradually decreased over a period of time. We also report and discuss preliminary results on a case study. These kinds of models contribute to our better understanding and development of an integrative theory of human migration and environmental change.