Rural-urban Migration in Jiangsu Province, China: Socio-hydrological Interpretation of Driving Factors and Prospect of Migration-alleviating Interventions

Abstract:

Rural-urban migration is an adaptive response to location-specific environmental or socio-economic stressors. Jiangsu Province, China is witnessing rapid economic growth fueled by manufacturing and services sector.

Rural-urban migration in Jiangsu, which brings higher stress to resource-carrying capacity of urban areas, is driven by rural ‘push’ factors, principally labor surplus and unemployment in agriculture. Rural to urban migration becomes apparent 2 to 4 years after a change in rural unemployment, implying that rural population takes a couple of years to internalize a shock in employment opportunities before migrating to cities. One percent increase of rural unemployment leads to migration of an additional 16,000 people on average.

Possible policy interventions aiming at relieving the rapid rural-urban migration in Jiangsu have been investigated based on a sensitivity analysis of driving factors in rural agricultural production. It shows that rural-urban migration is sensitive to input elasticities of precipitation and labor. Two groups of scenario analysis corresponding to possible policy interventions are implemented. The first policy focuses on providing government subsidies to rural non-agricultural industries then compensate for the shrinking agricultural production. Another policy supports education in rural areas to provide more skilled labor resource which can be absorbed by non-agricultural industries. Both two policies are effective in reducing rural unemployment and alleviating rural-urban migration.