Are the Beliefs of the Climate Change Deniers, Skeptics, and Trivializers supported by the Hourly Temperature Data? Evidence from Alaska

Abstract:

A significant percentage of the population does not fully embrace the scientific consensus regarding climate change. Indicative of this, a 2019 YouGov survey of 32,000 individuals from 28 countries indicated that there were only 14 countries in which 50 % or more of the respondents would agree with the statement that “The climate is changing and human activity is mainly responsible (https://yougov.co.uk/topics/science/articles-reports/2019/09/15/international-poll-most-expect-feel-impact-climate). Across the 28 countries, about 38 % of the respondents agreed with the statement, “The climate is changing and human activity is partly responsible, together with other factors.” A much smaller percentage of the respondents indicated that human activity is not responsible at all. These results suggest that public support for policies to reduce emissions may be less than what is needed to meet the goals of the Paris Accords.

Using time-series statistical methods, this paper examines the relationship between the hourly CO₂ atmospheric concentration level and temperature at the NOAA operated Barrow Observatory in northern Alaska over the period 1 January 1985 through 31 December 2015 using hourly downward shortwave radiation data as a covariate. Over this period, the annual temperature increased by about 5.8 ^o C. To control for other possible drivers of temperature, the model also includes a series of binary variables representing each year of the sample.

The estimated results are consistent with the scientific consensus. The model was evaluated using out-of-sample hourly data over the period 1 January 2016 through 31 August 2017. The out-of-sample structural predictions of hourly temperature are more accurate when the estimated CO₂ effects are factored into the estimated equation used to make the predictions (Figure1). A metric that may improve public understanding of climate change issues is also presented.