A178-0021
Climate, air quality and human health co-benefits of alternative energy vehicle deployment in China in 2050

Tuesday, 15 December 2020
Poster
Liqun Peng1, Denise L Mauzerall1, Feiqi Liu2, Mi Zhou3 and Mingwei Li4, (1)Princeton University, Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton, NJ, United States, (2)Tsinghua University, Princeton University, Beijing, China, (3)Peking University, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Beijing, China, (4)Princeton University, Cambridge, MA, United States
Abstract:
Heavy-duty vehicles contribute more PM2.5 and NOX emissions than light-duty passenger vehicles in China. Targeting all types of vehicles simultaneously is essential to maximize the air quality, health and climate co-benefits of replacing internal combustion vehicles with alternative energy vehicles (e.g. electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and natural gas vehicles) in China.

We estimate the emission changes in 2050 of various penetration rates of alternative energy vehicles and the implications of various carbon intensities of the electric power grid. We use an atmospheric chemistry model (WRF-Chem) to simulate the air quality impacts of alternative energy vehicle deployment in China and estimate the avoided premature deaths attributed to reduced ambient PM2.5 and ozone exposure. We also evaluate the economic benefits from avoided premature deaths and reduced GHG emissions.

We find that higher penetration of alternative energy vehicles can simultaneously decrease air pollutant and CO2e emissions, hence delivering greater air quality, health and climate benefits. In the most ambitious scenario - Deep decarbonization with High renewable penetration (DD-HR, all vehicles types are replaced with alternative energy vehicles with high renewable energy power sector penetration), the total emission of PM2.5, NOX, VOC and CO2e (GWP100) decrease by approximately 160(2%), 5,100(21%), 4,200(23%) and 670(7%) Gg respectively, compared with baseline emissions. Resulting annual average PM2.5 and summer ozone concentrations decrease substantially, reducing air pollution associated premature deaths by approximately 86,000 (95% CI: 84,000-88,000) and 41,000 (95% CI: 38,000-45,000). The economic benefits of avoided premature mortalities and GHG emission mitigation (based on the social cost of carbon of $78/ton CO2 and $2500/ton CH4) in the DD-HR scenario can annually reach US$120 (95% CI: 74-223) billion. Our results indicate that a clean energy transition in China’s transport sector offers increasing environmental and economic benefits as the power sector decarbonizes.

<< Previous Abstract | Next Abstract >>