Air Quality, Health, Climate, and Cost Implications of Clean Heating Options in Northern China

Abstract:

To alleviate regional air pollution, the Chinese government released the Clean Winter Heating Plan in 2017, an ambitious project aiming to facilitate the adoption of clean fuels and heaters by the end of 2021 in northern China. However, little research has quantitatively shown the benefits and costs of the various clean heating options. Here we conduct a comprehensive analysis quantifying the benefits and costs of adoption of efficient electric air-to-air heat pumps (AAHP), electric resistance heaters (RH), natural gas heaters (NGH), and clean coal briquettes with improved stoves (CCIS). Across scenarios, we find similar air quality and health benefits but significantly different carbon and cost implications. Switching to highly efficient AAHP is the most competitive option in the long term with the largest co-benefits and affordable operating costs. We find annual decreases in ambient PM_2.5-attributable deaths of 81,000 (77,000 to 84,000), and reductions in GHG emissions of 252 Tg CO_2e (GWP20) when AAHP are operated using electricity from a partially decarbonized grid. NGH bring the largest health and climate co-benefits in the near term, but AAHP will provide larger co-benefits as the power sector becomes cleaner and less carbon intensive in the future. The benefits of CCIS approach that of NGH, while their costs are the lowest among the considered clean heating strategies and can reduce costs compared with the use of raw coal with traditional stoves. CCIS does not require new fossil fuel infrastructure. This, combined with low cost, make them an attractive short-term option before the electric grid is largely decarbonized. Unsubsidized clean heaters that are not CCIS often increases households' heating expenses across northern China and hence subsidies are needed in many poor rural areas to increase uptake.