National Policy Interventions in Current Indian Power Generation Produce Disparate, State-Level Spatial Carbon and Sulfur Emission Impacts

Abstract:

While the third-largest emitter of greenhouse gas emissions, India’s per capita electricity consumption remains a fraction of other countries. Consequently, as power demand increases, greenhouse gas and air pollution emissions from largely coal-based Indian power generation has consequences for global climate change and local air quality. Electricity generation and capacity vary by state in India. This implies heterogenous emissions impacts from policy interventions not captured by current national, aggregate analyses. We develop a reduced-order dispatch model of Indian power generation to assess state-level, spatial CO₂ and SO₂ emission impacts of policy interventions. We present the first state-level consumption-based average annual CO₂ emission factors for today’s Indian grid. Among states with 96% national electricity demand, emission factors vary between 521-879 kg/MWh, heterogeneity not reflected in a nationwide average of 711 kg/MWh. Carbon taxes up to $100/metric ton CO₂, without new investments in low-carbon infrastructure, cause CO₂ reductions of 3% in the current Indian grid due to a low-carbon capacity unable to fully displace coal. A carbon tax nonetheless spatially shifts SO₂ emissions, which increase at 47 plants and decrease at 95 plants. Simulating nationwide implementation of SO₂ control to meet upcoming regulations shows 88% of plants see changes in plant capacity factor less than 5%, informing SO₂ control investment decisions. Regional sulfur control may shift emissions away from target areas because of state-wise dispatch in India and plants with sulfur control penalized in the dispatch order. Lastly, regional dispatch, not state-wise, results in 3% and 2% increases in CO₂ and SO₂ emissions, respectively. Emissions increase at 97 plants and decrease at 32 plants because regional dispatch incentivizes generation from cheaper, less efficient plants closer to coal mining areas with lower transportation costs. Our analysis shows that policies that have modest or negligible emissions impacts at the aggregate, national level nonetheless have disparate, state-level, spatial emissions impacts.