GC094-02
A plant-by-plant strategy for high-ambition coal power phaseout in China
Monday, 14 December 2020: 19:10
Virtual
Yiyun Ryna Cui1, Nathan Hultman1, Kejun Jiang2, Diyang Cui3, Morgan Edwards4, Haewon C McJeon5, Arijit Sen6, Kaihui Song7, Sha Yu8, Jiahai Yuan9, Jiawei Song10 and Weirong Zhang11, (1)University of Maryland College Park, Center for Global Sustainability, College Park, MD, United States, (2)ERI, Beijing, China, (3)University of Maryland, Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park, United States, (4)University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, United States, (5)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, United States, (6)University of Maryland College Park, College Park, United States, (7)University of Maryland College Park, Geographical Sciences, College Park, MD, United States, (8)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States, (9)North China Electric Power University, School of Economics and Management, Beijing, China, (10)University of Maryland, Center for Global Sustainability, College Park, United States, (11)North China Electric Power University, Beijing, China
Abstract:
More than half of current coal power capacity is in China. A key strategy for meeting the 1.5°C climate goal is to rapidly shift away from conventional coal use. Here we detail how to structure a high-ambition coal phaseout in China while balancing multiple national needs. We evaluate the 1,037 currently operating coal plants based on comprehensive technical, economic and environmental criteria and develop a metric for prioritizing plants for early retirement. We find that 18% of plants consistently score poorly across all three criteria and are thus low-hanging fruits for rapid retirement. We develop plant-by-plant phaseout strategies for each province by combining our retirement algorithm with an integrated assessment model. With rapid retirement of the low-hanging fruits, other existing plants can operate with a 20- or 30-year minimum lifetime and gradually reduced utilization to achieve 1.5°C or well-below 2°C climate goals, respectively, with complete phaseout by 2045 and 2055.
Continued coal expansion, however, will largely disrupt the process. Based on plant data, we find a total of 98 GW of coal-fired power plants are currently estimated to be under construction and an additional 53 GW recently got permitted. It indicates that China’s total installed coal capacity is likely to continue to grow and reach over 1200 GW by 2025, representing a 15% increase from today’s level. To achieve the 2°C or 1.5°C compatible coal phaseout, delayed actions of the “No New Coal” strategy will accelerate the retirement pathways of all coal plants by 10 to 15 years, and even more in provinces with large additions. This will significantly increase the risk of stranded assets, because of not only premature retirement of newly added plants but also shortened operational lifetime of existing plants.
