Developing infrastructure adaptation pathways to combat hurricane intensification: A coupled storm generation and economic modeling framework

Abstract:

Projections of global climate change suggest an intensification of extreme weather events is likely, including associated wind speed, precipitation, and surge from hurricanes. Coastal communities are vulnerable to these threats and must incorporate adaptive resiliency measures into infrastructure development and sustainment plans of existing assets. This research examines the fiscal impact of a probabilistic ‘worst-case’ hurricane event on a coastal military installation, Eglin Air Force Base, in Northwest Florida. We produce an 80-year projection of damage costs to the installation by coupling FEMA’s HAZUS Hurricane and Flood models with the Department of Defense Regional Sea Level (DSLR) projections. The parameters for this worst-case storm derive from prior research analysis of Eglin, aggregated historical events, and climate change-related intensification. Preliminary results suggest that Eglin faces severe fiscal vulnerability from such a worst-case storm and that this fiscal risk will increase exponentially over time: $714M in damages in 2020 and upwards of $2.4B by 2100. The damage cost estimates are used as inputs to a resiliency adaptation pathway model, which identifies infrastructure investment strategies based on facility importance and condition criteria matrices. Such strategies are grounded in infrastructure asset management principles to produce a positive cost-benefit resiliency relationship in terms of investment and risk avoidance.