Placing extreme events into historical context: the AWSSI example

Abstract:

Key to modeling climate extremes such that the information can be used by urban planners and emergency responders is having a means by which extremes can be quantified by those affected and projections can be translated into comprehensible information. Climate services are services directed at “the generation, interpretation, transmission and application of climate knowledge and information for decision making and further planning.” In this context, arguably one of the most essential climate service categories are those services that translate historical climate data into an envelope against which current, forecast, and projected conditions can be objectively compared. Because the concept of an ‘extreme’ event is often subjectively defined by an affected audience, such relative services help to quantifiably frame what conditions constitute an extreme event and thus provide a basis for analogs that inform appropriately scaled decisions. However, to be effective as a climate service, it must be developed with particular audiences and purposes in mind, and relevant audiences must be aware of the service, trust the service provider, easily access the service, and comprehend the presented information. This paper discusses the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI), developed by the Midwestern Regional Climate Center as a way to place an emerging winter season into historical context and thus provide important, timely and comprehensible climate information into the hands of relevant audiences.