A Societal Consensus for Adaptation – What Will It Take?

Abstract:

Currently, society is ill-prepared for the current and future effects of climate change and few proactive efforts are improving this situation. At present, adaptation initiatives are stymied by the uncertainty of future changes and the inability of climate projections to provide the level of confidence to support decision making. While the vast majority of the climate change science effort is directed toward prediction, the information needs for adaptation, such as future climate at local scales, are largely beyond prediction using current methods. Recently, analysts have achieved significant progress advancing “decision centric” methods that focus research on the dynamics of the system of interest in response to plausible climate changes. This development serves as a necessary but insufficient basis for building societal consensus for adaptation. A concerted effort composed of three themes is required to energize adaption. First, continued advancement is needed in decision-centric adaptation science based on communication and engagement with relevant communities and decision makers. Second, scientific assessment of the effectiveness of adaptation measures, including investments in green infrastructure, is needed to provide reliable options for improving resilience. Finally, climate informed approaches should be advanced that focus on providing credible signals of change for the specific sources of risk affecting a system. This presentation will illustrate how this three part plan can underpin adaptation research and build a societal consensus for adaptation.