Concurrent Disasters in a Changing Climate: How Science can Guide Climate-Resilient Investments in the Face of Uncertainty

Abstract:

2020 gave everyone a chance to experience catastrophic risk at once. Before COVID-19 began its spread across the world, experts had warned that for pandemics, it was a question of when, not if. The pandemic quickly exposed a lack of preparedness. It disrupted supply chains, crossed borders, and crushed health care systems. As the disease spread destruction, people still suffered from other hazards—bigger wildfires, higher storm surge, and greater heat—for which experts have warned it’s a question of when, not if. Climate-worsened extremes drove people out of their homes even in the midst of the pandemic, increasing the likelihood of catching the coronavirus. This experience has shown the world how concurrent disasters can multiply risk. To prepare, governments, businesses, communities, and individuals must redouble efforts to build resilience in a more hazard-prone future. Reducing risk in advance of disasters will save lives and money. When it comes to climate risk that means building resilience to new extremes. Yet, deep uncertainty remains regarding the extent and timing of the new extremes brought by climate change. The inherent uncertainty in climate projections poses a serious barrier to decision-making for investors and infrastructure planners. Even as climate science and modeling have advanced, this uncertainty has created a widening gap between knowledge and data and the incorporation of future climate risk into planning, as decision-makers continue to rely on past experience. Still, the ability of climate science and modeling to project a range of outcomes based upon a variety of future climate scenarios can provide insight to help evaluate the benefits of particular investments in climate resilience. The development of climate scenarios based on peer-reviewed scientific and academic research allows decision-makers to contend with possible future conditions and enables individual investors, planners, and subnational entities to consider the value of investments amidst an uncertain future.