Application of a Satellite-Driven Hydro-economic Model to Assess Climate Change Impacts On Montana’s Water Resources, Agricultural Production, and Farm Revenues

Abstract:

The increasing demand of water for agriculture and the uncertainties of climate change are posing challenges for farmers, water resource managers and policymakers. To anticipate increases in agricultural water demand at the end of the century, and to evaluate the regions most at risk of straining supplies, we used a satellite-driven integrated hydro-economic model that simulates how farmers allocate land and water resources. Our results quantify end-of-century Relative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) climate change projection impacts on streamflows, agricultural land and water use, as well as on crop yields and farmers’ net revenues. We compared end-of-century results with baseline hydrologic and economic scenarios that were calibrated from historic streamflows and satellite-data driven observations. Results show that without changes in water policy and basin management, agricultural adaptation will have a significant impact on streamflow quantities and timing. Our study illustrates the worst-case scenario impacts of climate change if there are no changes to policies aimed at the timing of water diversions, limiting water restrictions, or incentivising irrigation technology.