Quantifying Water Availability in a Climatically and Anthropogenically Changing Western New York

Abstract:

Regions characterized with abundant surface water such as Western New York (WNY) may feel secure with the availability of water, but the quality or quantity of water can change due to future climate change and human activities. Assessments of these effects on water resources are needed. This research investigated future climate change and anthropogenic effects on water resources in WNY by developing an integrated surface water –groundwater model. The selected model, Ground-Water/ Surface-Water FLOW model (GSFLOW), quantified groundwater storage, since analyzing changes in storage can indicate how sensitive the watershed is to future environmental conditions. Under RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios, a regional climate model produced precipitation, solar radiation, and temperature outputs to simulate future climatic conditions. For future anthropogenic effects, three land development projections are considered: increased urbanization, increased agriculture, and current conditions. The GSFLOW model produced different simulations of future climate change and human activities effects on the hydrologic cycle by running all possible combinations of climatic and human scenarios. In addition to statistical analyses, the basin-scale modeling approach attributed climatic and human effects on storage and quantified the temporal and spatial variability of storage. This study demonstrated the value in creating a regional model in a humid, surface water-dependent area like WNY. Through sensitivity analyses, the model enabled the determination of hydrologic drivers of the system that contribute to storage. Modeling results suggest that groundwater storage will have a bigger role affecting surface water and surface water -groundwater interactions. With increased extreme precipitation events, groundwater storage will help delay the peak flow effects on streams and potentially mitigate flooding events. Distinguishing the individual, collective, and temporal effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities, with detailed variability, is imperative for proper management of water resources in WNY.