Projected Actual Evapotranspiration under Climate Change in Aral Sea Basin, Central Asia

Abstract:

The impacts of climate change on future EvapoTranspiration are highly uncertain. Therefore, knowledge into the future changes of ET over ecosystems with long history of ecological degradation, impacted by climate change and human activities is essential for the future management of water resources. This presentation shows outputs from an ensemble of Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under different climate scenarios according to the Representative Concentration Pathways – RCP (2.6 – 2020s: 2011-2040; 4.5 – 2050s: 2041-2070 and 8.5 – 2080s: 2071-2100), which investigated the projected future dynamics of ET for the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) region 8. The time-scale performance of the coupled ensembles reproduced the region’s observed climatology and characteristically show relatively low ET trend in the warming seasons with decreasing precipitation; but are not exactly the same for the cold winter seasons in the future scenarios (2071-2100) in deference with the historical trends (1971-2000). With regard to anticipated decrease in precipitation, regional population increase would necessitate checkmating the forecasted rise in global food demand by 2050 through the overdependence on upstream water from glacier/snow melt for expanding irrigation (21 mm year^–1). The goal is to update our understanding of the impacts of future global warming as it affect changes in water availability and water consumption amidst the dire ecological situation of the region. Our study can inform and activate strategic planning for future water resource management.