21st Century Projections of Soil Freeze and Thaw over the Province of Quebec, Canada

Abstract:

Soil Freeze and Thaw (FT) is one of the most important cryosphere processes at higher latitudes and has major roles in controlling environmental processes as well as socioeconomic activities across northern regions. The dynamics of FT are largely determined by the joint impacts of near surface air temperature and the depth of snow cover. Understanding the control of these hydroclimatic variables on FT characteristics therefore is an essential step for assessing the livelihood of both human and ecosystem. Here, we use the remotely-sensed gridded FT data from Freeze and Thaw Earth System Data Records and pair it with gridded surface air temperature from Global Meteorological Forcing Dataset as well as the gridded snow depth product from Canadian Meteorological Center to study the historical and future FT dynamics over the province of Quebec, Canada. Using these historical data, we develop statistical models to (1) represent monthly snow depth dynamics at the grid scale using the forcing methodological data, and (2) describe the seasonal and annual FT characteristics using the joint characteristics of temperature and snow depth at the grid and ecozone scales. The validated models are then forced with NASA’s Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections to provide a top-down impact assessment scheme to address the alterations in different FT characteristics under future ensemble changes in snow depth and temperature. The results obtained in our research can provide useful insights into future agriculture, infrastructure durability, mining and water resources management in the province of Quebec under changing climate.