Animal Occurrence Probability and Power Outage Risk in ISO New England

Abstract:

While animal-related outages may only contribute to roughly 10% of all outages, the economic impact of these are substantial. Considering the value of unserved energy and electricity service restoration costs, some states estimate an annual cost of wildlife-caused power outages to be between $32 million to $317 million per year. In particular, birds often cause power disruption by electrocution or collision with powerlines. However, the contribution of individual bird species to the severity of the power outages has not been quantified, and it may vary depending on the species’ ecological and morphological characteristics. In this study, we examine the extent to which bird abundances can predict the severity of electrical outages, as measured by the System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI). SAIDI is calculated from historical power outage data of over 200,000 outages in the states of Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Vermont from 2013 – 2018. To estimate bird abundances, we used species occurrence data from the citizen-science database eBird to derive detection probabilities by month and by town for 22 bird species that are known to cause outages. We compare the partial contribution of these species to outage severity using multiple statistical techniques including Multiple Linear Regression, Quantile Regression, and Principal Component Analysis. We also examine whether these relationships depend on other characteristics, such as time of day, seasonality, weather conditions, and human population density. The results suggest that raptors, specifically Osprey (Pandion haliaetus), and some species of doves and blackbirds are significantly correlated to SAIDI. An improved understanding of animal abundance and electrical grid outages could yield more specific insight for devising mitigation strategies and action plans for increased power reliability.